UBS: Q2 automotive deliveries may disappoint the market, reiterates Tesla "Sell" rating

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, UBS has released a research report reiterating its "Sell" rating on Tesla (TSLA.US) with a target price of $215. UBS expects Tesla to announce its Q2 2025 delivery data on July 2, with an estimated delivery volume of approximately 366,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 18% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9%, but still 10% lower than market expectations.

From a regional perspective, UBS anticipates that Tesla's vehicle deliveries in the United States will see a quarter-on-quarter increase, deliveries in Europe will remain flat, while deliveries in China may decline. Based on conversations between UBS and investors, the expected range for Tesla's Q2 delivery volume is between 355,000 and 375,000 units.

Tesla will also announce its energy storage deployment data, which UBS predicts will be 11.3 GWh, an 8% quarter-on-quarter increase, slightly below the market expectation of 11.8 GWh. UBS reminds investors that energy storage project deployments can be volatile.

In the report, UBS stated that as investors focus on Tesla's autonomous driving taxi Robotaxi, many bulls are expected to "ignore" electric vehicle delivery data, as they believe the value of Tesla stock lies in artificial intelligence (robot taxis and humanoid robots). However, UBS emphasized that Tesla's current financial performance primarily relies on its automotive business. This business not only helps fund cutting-edge projects but also, as stock prices rise and the automotive business outlook worsens, the market injects higher premiums into already expensive AI options, despite scant supporting data.

UBS indicated that disappointing delivery reports could serve as a reality check. Historical data shows that delivery volumes falling short of expectations tend to trigger declines in Tesla's stock price, but the anomaly from the last quarter is worth noting: despite delivery volumes being 11% lower than market expectations, Tesla's stock price rose 5%, marking the largest divergence since 2022. This may suggest that Tesla has further entered a world where "automotive fundamentals do not matter."

UBS also stated that stock price fluctuations triggered by delivery volumes may be temporary, with the subsequent earnings report being the main event. Although Tesla's Q2 earnings report is unlikely to be optimistic, CEO Elon Musk may vigorously portray its future vision during the conference call.

TipRanks data shows that Wall Street analysts have mixed views on Tesla, with 14 giving a "Buy" rating, 12 giving a "Hold" rating, and 9 giving a "Sell" rating, resulting in a consensus rating of "Hold" with an average target price of $287.00, which is 12% lower than the current stock price level.