Cathie Wood's 2030 Math: Tesla Rockets Past SpaceX By $5.7T

Benzinga
2025.06.25 14:04
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Cathie Wood projects Tesla's stock could reach $2,600 by 2030, resulting in an $8.19 trillion market cap, while SpaceX may hit $2.5 trillion. This means SpaceX would be valued at only 30.5% of Tesla. Wood emphasizes that Tesla's innovation, including EVs and energy storage, remains unmatched, while Starlink is expected to drive SpaceX's growth. Investors currently have easier access to Tesla, as SpaceX is private, making it a potential bargain if it goes public.

Cathie Wood's two favorite Elon Musk ventures—Tesla Inc TSLA and SpaceX – are heading for the stratosphere, but not at the same speed.

According to Wood's latest projections, Tesla stock could hit $2,600 by 2030 – that’s a jaw-dropping $8.19 trillion market cap (assuming no change in shares outstanding). On the other hand, she sees SpaceX at a lofty $2.5 trillion by 2030.

That means SpaceX, even after launching thousands of satellites and pioneering global broadband via Starlink, would be valued at just 30.5% of Tesla, giving investors a dramatically lower-cost way to bet on Musk's empire.

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Starlink Lifts Off, But Tesla Stays ARK's Crown Jewel

ARK's thesis? Starlink's constellation – en route to 42,000 satellites – could haul in $300 billion annually, putting it in Apple Inc territory. "Starlink will be the primary driver of SpaceX's growth," ARK notes, seeing it capture 15% of global communications spending.

Yet even with that, Tesla's innovation stack – from EVs to Optimus robots and energy storage – remains unmatched in ARK's model. "Tesla aligns perfectly with our disruptive innovation framework," ARK says, sticking to its $2,600/share target despite political drama surrounding Musk's controversial role in President Donald Trump‘s administration.

Public Exposure? Tesla's Easy. SpaceX? Not So Much.

While Tesla trades on the Nasdaq, SpaceX remains private, forcing investors to access it via its suppliers, such as Garmin Ltd GRMN and Wistron NeWeb, both riding the Starlink expansion wave.

The big picture? Wood expects both companies to dominate their domains. But if you’re looking for the cheaper Musk stock, SpaceX might just be the bargain, assuming it ever goes public.

Until then, investors will have to choose: the headline-hogging Tesla, or the stealthy satellite surge of Starlink's mothership.

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