The Federal Reserve's senior officials have differing views on a rate cut in July, with several officials warning that tariffs could reignite inflation

Zhitong
2025.06.24 23:15
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There are differences among the Federal Reserve's senior officials regarding a rate cut in July. Some officials support a rate cut, but Chairman Jerome Powell emphasizes the need to observe the economy's response to the new policies. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr expects tariffs to drive up inflation and supports a wait-and-see approach. He pointed out that the current economic foundation is solid, but future inflation may rise due to increased tariffs. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari stated that there needs to be a clearer understanding of the impact of tariffs on prices, emphasizing the need to assess the actual situation before making policy adjustments

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, although some officials have expressed support for an interest rate cut in July, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized earlier on Tuesday during his testimony to Congress that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates, and he and his colleagues are observing the economy's response to various new policies, including tariffs.

Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated that he expects tariffs to push up inflation and supports a wait-and-see approach to interest rate adjustments.

In a speech prepared for an event hosted by the Kansas City Fed in Omaha, Barr noted that the current foundation of the U.S. economy is solid, with low unemployment and inflation having fallen back to around the Fed's 2% target.

He stated, "However, looking ahead, I expect inflation to rise due to tariffs," adding, "Short-term inflation expectations are rising, supply chain adjustments, and second-round effects may lead to persistently high inflation."

U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed new tariffs on dozens of U.S. trading partners, but specific rates have been adjusted multiple times. The trade agreements his administration is negotiating may bring further changes.

Barr believes these tariffs could lead to an economic slowdown and rising unemployment, but he also emphasized that there is considerable uncertainty regarding policies and their impacts. "The current monetary policy stance allows us to patiently observe the development of the economic situation," he added.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari pointed out that although recent inflation data is "quite optimistic," the Fed needs to have a clearer understanding of the impact of tariffs on prices before adjusting policy.

"The inflation data we've received over the past two to three months has been quite positive, indicating that the path of inflation decline I previously described is being realized," Kashkari said on Tuesday at an event in La Crosse, Wisconsin. "But clearly, we have not yet seen the full impact of tariffs, so we are taking the time to assess the actual situation before making significant adjustments to the policy outlook."

According to the latest forecasts released after the monetary policy meeting on June 17-18, there is a divergence among Fed officials regarding whether an interest rate cut can occur this year.

The Fed's preferred inflation measure fell to 2.1% in April—slightly above the 2% target—but policymakers expect it to rise back to 3% by the end of the year