The "Big Beautiful" bill approaches the "July 4" deadline, with Republicans pushing for Senate approval this week

The Trump tax reform bill faces a key Senate vote, with the Middle East situation and internal party divisions adding uncertainty.

This week, the U.S. Senate is preparing for a critical vote on the Trump administration's "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill, planning to initiate a multi-step voting process in the middle of the week, with the final vote expected to be completed by the weekend or early next week, in order to achieve Trump's goal of signing the bill before July 4.

On Sunday, Trump called on Republican members on social media to swiftly pass the tax bill, claiming that the party has shown "unprecedented unity."

However, divisions within the Republican Party may cast a shadow over the passage of this landmark bill.

The bill faces multiple internal resistances from Republicans

Currently, several key figures have expressed doubts about the timeline of the "Big Beautiful" bill.

Senator Lisa Murkowski explicitly stated in an MSNBC interview that she prefers to develop "good policy" rather than pursue "arbitrary deadlines."

House Republican Byron Donalds also admitted on Fox Business that due to differences in details between the House and Senate, the July 4 target may not be met, but there is still hope to "complete it as soon as possible."

Within the Senate, Majority Leader John Thune faces the daunting task of mediating internal party divisions. Fiscal conservatives are demanding deeper spending cuts, while moderates are concerned that restrictions on Medicaid eligibility and cuts to rural hospital funding will harm voter interests.

Renewable energy incentives continue to divide the party, with some conservatives pushing to accelerate the phase-out of tax incentives for wind, solar, nuclear, geothermal, and hydrogen energy, while other senators are fighting to preserve these incentives for projects that have already begun.

SALT cap becomes a key negotiation point

The issue of the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap has further exacerbated tensions between the two chambers. The Senate version maintains the current $10,000 cap, while the House-passed version raises it to $40,000.

Several House members from high-tax states like New York, New Jersey, and California have threatened to block the bill if it does not include the $40,000 SALT cap.

The Senate has some negotiating room to raise the SALT cap. According to Senate rules, the bill can lose up to $1.5 trillion over ten years. However, the latest estimates from the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation found that the legislation would only cost $441 billion over ten years—this figure is derived using budgetary tricks that assume the $3.8 trillion cost of extending the Trump administration's first-term tax cuts is zero.

Democrats have removed multiple provisions and are seeking to eliminate the "capital tax"

Although Democrats have been excluded from negotiations on this tax reform agenda (Trump can pass the agenda solely with Republican votes), they successfully challenged and removed several provisions through Senate rules.

On Sunday night, Senate parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough ruled that multiple provisions unrelated to taxes, spending, or budgets must be removed, including provisions limiting judges' penalties for contempt of court actions against Trump administration officials, measures to cut Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits, and cuts to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's funding and Federal Reserve employees' salariesIn addition, MacDonough also vetoed provisions involving federal employees, such as weakening civil service protections and allowing the president to revoke agency plans without congressional approval. She also ruled that the provision requiring the United States Postal Service (USPS) to sell all electric vehicles must be removed.

It is reported that USPS signed a contract worth $482 million with Oshkosh Defense in 2021, planning to deliver up to 165,000 electric vehicles over ten years.

The Democrats are currently also working to remove the "capital tax" in Clause 899, with a related ruling expected to be announced as early as this week. This clause has raised concerns on Wall Street about capital flight from the United States