Breakfast FM-Radio | June 24, 2025

Huajian Morning Voice

Market Overview

Iran's retaliatory attack on the U.S. was not as severe as expected, the three major U.S. stock indices rebounded after a brief drop, with the S&P and Nasdaq bouncing back to their highest levels in a week; the energy sector fell by 2.5%, the only sector to decline. Tesla surged over 8%, marking its largest increase in nearly two months. After disappointing results from clinical trials of the next-generation weight loss drug, European weight loss giant Novo Nordisk fell over 5%.

Federal Reserve officials turned dovish, U.S. Treasury prices jumped, and yields fell by more than 10 basis points from the day's high, while the dollar index, which had reached a three-week high during the day, turned lower. The yen fell over 1% to a nearly six-week low, briefly rising after Iran's attack on U.S. military bases.

After Trump called for lower oil prices, crude oil prices accelerated their decline, and following Iran's attack on U.S. military bases, crude oil plummeted, closing down more than 10% from the day's high. Gold prices turned higher during the day, recovering from a more than week-long low, but retreated after the Iranian attack on U.S. military bases.

During the Asian session, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks collectively surged in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.65%. The stablecoin concept surged again, the Hang Seng Index rose 1%, and the new consumption trio rebounded, while commodities and government bonds fell.

Key News

Iran attacked the U.S. military base in Qatar, without targeting energy infrastructure. Trump thanked Iran for the "advance notice" to the U.S., calling Iran's response "very weak," leading to a plunge in oil prices. Trump stated: Israel and Iran have fully agreed to a complete ceasefire, which will be implemented in phases; Iranian officials confirmed to the media that they accepted the ceasefire. Israeli media reported that Israel informed Iran that it seeks to end the conflict "within days."

Trump called for lower oil prices, and the U.S. Energy Secretary "responded": action is underway.

Following Waller last Friday, another Federal Reserve official turned dovish, with Bowman stating: support for a rate cut as early as July due to potential risks in the labor market.

U.S. June Markit manufacturing and manufacturing PMI remained in expansion, with the price index recording the largest increase in four years. Eurozone June services PMI hit a new low for the year, while manufacturing PMI fell into contraction, with Germany and France lagging.

Tesla officially launched Robotaxi, with 10 vehicles on the road in Austin, Texas, equipped with safety drivers and operating within a limited range, leading to a more than 8% surge in stock price on Monday.

Germany and Italy were urged to withdraw gold from the U.S., stating that "assets that serve as ballast should be held in one's own hands."

Ele.me and Fliggy are merging into Alibaba's e-commerce China business group, as Alibaba moves towards becoming a major consumer platform. Alibaba Cloud launched an accelerated framework for autonomous driving model training inference, reducing training time by 50%

Market Closing Report

US and European Stock Markets: The S&P 500 index closed up 0.96% at 6025.17 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.89% at 42581.78 points. The Nasdaq closed up 0.94% at 19630.98 points. The European STOXX 600 index fell 0.28% to 535.03 points.

A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65% to 3381.58 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.43% to 10048.39 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.39% to 2017.63 points.

Bond Market: By the end of the bond market, the yield on the US 10-year benchmark Treasury bond was about 4.35%, down nearly 3 basis points during the day; the yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond was about 3.86%, down nearly 5 basis points during the day.

Commodities: WTI August crude oil futures fell 7.22% to $68.51 per barrel. Brent August crude oil futures fell 7.18% to $71.48 per barrel. COMEX August gold futures rose 0.27% to $3395 per ounce. London zinc rose 2.1% to $2687 per ton; London aluminum rose 1.5% to $2588 per ton; London nickel fell nearly 1.4% to $14804 per ton.

News Highlights

Global Headlines

Iran attacks US military base in Qatar, Trump thanks Iran for "advance notice" to the US, calling Iran's response "very weak", crude oil plunged during Monday's trading.

• Before the news of Iran's missile attack on the US military base in Qatar, the US embassy in Qatar advised American citizens to shelter in place; US media reported: The US informed Middle Eastern officials that Israel is seeking a quick end to the conflict with Iran and requested to convey this to Iran; During the US stock market's midday trading, media reported that Iran was moving missile launchers, possibly preparing to strike US forces, and after this news broke, all three major US stock indices turned negative, while crude oil briefly turned positive.

• Iran announced attacks on US military bases in Iraq and Qatar, claiming to launch "devastating and powerful" missiles at the Qatar base, equivalent in number to the bombs used against US nuclear facilities in Iran, without mentioning attacks on energy infrastructure. Media reported that the US was aware in advance of Iran's intention to strike the Qatar base, and Trump did not want further US military involvement in the Middle East. US oil, which had risen over 6% in early Asian trading, fell over 7%, while US stock gains expanded.

• Qatar stated that Iran launched 19 missiles at the US Al Udeid base in Qatar, causing no casualties, and the local security situation is stable. US officials reported no casualties among US personnel. Trump later thanked Iran for the "advance notice" of the attack on the base, stating that no one was injured as a result, and expressed hope that there would be no more "hatred" from Iran, perhaps Iran could begin to achieve peace.

• According to CCTV News, Trump posted on social media at 6 PM Eastern Time on the 23rd, stating that Israel and Iran have fully agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire, and it will be implemented in phasesTrump stated that a ceasefire between the two sides will begin in about 6 hours, at midnight Eastern Time on the 24th. The ceasefire agreement involves two 12-hour ceasefire periods, with Iran initiating the first 12-hour ceasefire, followed by Israel conducting a second 12-hour ceasefire, and the war will officially be declared over 24 hours later.

• Israeli media: Israel has informed Iran that it seeks to end the conflict "within a few days." CCTV reported that Iranian officials confirmed to the media that the Iranian government accepted the ceasefire agreement with Israel mediated by Qatar and proposed by the United States.

The Israel-Iran conflict escalates rapidly, with high-intensity bombings in Tehran and U.S. bases in Syria under attack. According to CCTV News, on the 23rd local time, the Israel-Iran conflict entered its 11th day. In the Iranian capital Tehran, the Iranian Red Crescent Society building was attacked, and the Fordow nuclear facility was attacked for the second time. On the same day, the Israel Defense Forces also attacked six airports in western, eastern, and central Iran, claiming that the Israeli Air Force "crippled the operational capabilities of the Iranian Air Force." Additionally, Israeli fighter jets dropped over 100 munitions on targets in Tehran within two hours that day.

• Iran claims to have used the "Qadr-H" multi-warhead ballistic missile for the first time to strike Israel.
• Iran's Parliament National Security Committee approved a proposal outline to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. The White House Press Secretary reiterated Trump's statement: the U.S. is confident that Iran's nuclear facilities have been completely destroyed. The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that no one can currently determine the extent of underground damage to Iran's Fordow nuclear facility, and given the extreme sensitivity of centrifuges to vibrations, it is expected that Fordow "suffered very severe damage."
• What is the damage to Iran's nuclear facilities from U.S. airstrikes? According to The Paper, preliminary analyses from multiple sources indicate that Iran's Fordow nuclear facility was damaged in U.S. airstrikes, but there are no signs that it was destroyed. Advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader: Enriched uranium material is still present, "the game is not over".

Super tankers make emergency turns in the Strait of Hormuz, markets await Iran's response. RBC Capital Markets warned that it may take days or weeks to assess Iran's true response, and one should not assume that the danger has passed. It is not necessary to completely close the Strait of Hormuz to disrupt global oil transport; Iran may implement targeted strikes on individual tankers or critical infrastructure (such as Fujairah Port)

• Analyst: The probability of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz remains below 50%. The analysis suggests that while the probability of a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains below 50%, it is significantly higher than last Friday's level; a more likely scenario is that Iran will intensify harassment of passing vessels, extending transportation times and increasing freight costs through measures such as laying mines and boarding inspections.

Putin meets with Iranian Foreign Minister, expresses willingness to provide assistance. Putin stated that there is no basis or justification for the unwarranted aggressive actions against Iran. He emphasized that Russia is willing to provide assistance to the Iranian people and highlighted the good and reliable partnership between Russia and Iran.

Trump calls for lower oil prices, U.S. Energy Secretary "responds", U.S. oil drops over 7% from daily high. Trump posted, "Pay attention, bring oil prices down, rising oil prices are 'helping the enemy'," specifically calling out the U.S. Department of Energy, demanding "to start drilling now." The Energy Secretary responded in a post, "We are taking action."

Federal Reserve Governor Bowman: Supports rate cuts as early as July, due to rising risks in the labor market. Bowman pointed out that data shows tariffs and other policies have not yet had a significant impact on the economy. The impact of tariffs on inflation may be delayed more than initially expected and to a lesser extent, especially as many companies have stocked up in advance. Ongoing progress in trade and tariff negotiations has significantly reduced risks in the economic environment. Changes in trade policy may have only a minimal impact on the inflation indicators preferred by the Federal Reserve.

U.S. June Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI remain in expansion, price index sees largest increase in four years. In June, both the U.S. Markit manufacturing and services sectors faced significant price increases, particularly in manufacturing. The materials purchasing price index surged by 5.4 points to 70, marking the largest increase in four years. The sales price index also saw a similar rise, reflecting that companies are passing on higher costs, including import tariffs, to consumers.

Eurozone June Services PMI hits new low for the year, Manufacturing PMI deeply in contraction, Germany and France lag behind. The Eurozone composite PMI fell from 52.2 in May to 50.8, reaching a five-month low, with the June services PMI at 51.3, the lowest this year, and manufacturing at 46.5, continuing several months of contraction. By country, Germany showed particularly weak performance, with the composite PMI dropping to 49.8, a significant decline from 52.4 in May;France's economy unexpectedly contracted, dropping significantly to 45.7.

Tesla officially launches "autonomous driving taxi" Robotaxi, with 10 vehicles on the road in Austin, Texas, equipped with safety personnel and operating within a limited range, comments are not as favorable as Waymo. Tesla has officially launched its "autonomous driving taxi" service, currently equipped with only 10 vehicles, operating from 6 AM to midnight, and only within geofenced areas. Most importantly, the vehicles are still equipped with safety personnel and remote operators, with a uniform charge of $4.20. Analysts believe that compared to Waymo, which has already provided fully autonomous driving services in multiple locations, Tesla has a long way to catch up.

• Musk's next trillion-dollar track? UBS explains the Robotaxi business model. UBS believes that if autonomous driving technology matures and receives regulatory approval, Tesla's Robotaxi network in the U.S. could expand to 2.3 million vehicles by 2040, with annual revenue potentially reaching $20.3 billion. The company not only independently develops the FSD system but also has vehicle manufacturing capabilities and an operational platform. This vertical integration capability makes Tesla the only company currently able to package "vehicle + software + network platform" together.

Germany and Italy urged to withdraw gold from the U.S., "assets that serve as ballast should be held in one's own hands"! The independence of the Federal Reserve has been interfered with by Trump, and geopolitical risks have increased, prompting Germany and Italy to face pressure to repatriate over $245 billion in gold reserves. The huge amount of gold held by the two countries' central banks at the New York Fed accounts for more than one-third. The European Taxpayers Association and some lawmakers are calling for the gold to be returned to ensure that their central banks have absolute control.

Ele.me and Fliggy join forces with TaoTian, merged into Alibaba's e-commerce China business group, Alibaba moves towards a large consumer platform.

• Alibaba Cloud launches an autonomous driving model training inference acceleration framework, reducing training time by 50%.

Domestic Macro

Why has the risk appetite in the A-shares decreased in the short term? Shenwan Hongyuan Securities believes that this is mainly due to three aspects: first, the domestic economic support is in a window period, with "grabbing exports" weakening ahead of time, and the implementation of stable growth policies needs to wait until September-October; second, overseas disturbances have increased, with risks arising from the U.S. debt ceiling and geopolitical conflicts; third, the narrative of strong industries has weakened, with the deep application of AI progressing slowly, and new consumption facing cost-performance issuesBoth ends of the dumbbell are shrinking: how to view it? How to respond? The team led by Zhang Qiyao from Xingzheng Strategy believes that the recent "small micro 盘 + dividends" dumbbell strategy has performed well, but both ends are experiencing a rare "shrinkage" phenomenon, reaching historical extremes. In the short term, micro 盘 stocks face adjustment risks due to insufficient liquidity, while the cost-performance ratio of bank stocks remains good. In the medium term, the dumbbell strategy still has allocation value. As the disclosure of mid-term report forecasts approaches, performance improvement directions such as the export chain, AI, and finance may become key to breaking the market.

Domestic Companies

"Ning Wang" takes action, embodied intelligence "Galaxy General" new round of financing is here. Galaxy General Robotics announced on the 23rd that it has officially completed a new round of financing of 1.1 billion yuan led by CATL. This round of financing has gathered top investors such as CATL's listed company strategic investment, Puquan Capital, China Development Bank's National Development Science and Technology Innovation, Beijing Robotics Industry Fund, and GGV Capital. Galaxy General is one of the leading projects in the domestic embodied intelligence track, alongside Yushu Technology and Zhiyuan Robotics, ranking in the first tier of the domestic embodied intelligence track.

Overseas Macro

Why is the global market still calm despite the U.S. crackdown on Iran? Analysts believe that although the situation in the Middle East has escalated, it does not pose a systemic threat to the global market, and thus the market remains calm. Investors generally expect that the military intervention by the Trump administration will be short-lived, with the main goal being deterrence rather than long-term conflict, and Iran's countermeasures are also quite "limited," with expectations that the country will not take actions that disrupt global oil supply.

U.S. May existing home sales exceed expectations, but still the weakest May sales since 2009, with home prices hitting a new high. The total annualized existing home sales in the U.S. for May reached 4.03 million units, higher than the expected 3.95 million units, with the previous value at 4 million units; existing home sales in May increased by 0.8% month-on-month, while the expectation was a decrease of 1.3%, and the previous value was a decrease of 0.5%.

Overseas Companies

As Circle gains popularity, crypto assets "cluster listing," the crypto circle cannot understand the enthusiasm of the stock market. Although the crypto craze is rapidly shifting to the stock market, traditional crypto investors are skeptical of this phenomenon, believing that this enthusiasm is driven by the growth logic of "traditional payment stories" rather than "crypto stories," and that the valuations of related companies should not continue to exceed the intrinsic value of the assets; they believe that the one-to-one exchange rate of stablecoins to the dollar has limited use, primarily for trading.

Apple and the EU engage in final negotiations over App Store rules, may concede to avoid hefty penaltiesReports indicate that Apple is expected to make concessions regarding its "guidance" clause, which previously prevented users from accessing discount information outside of the App Store. If Apple fails to comply with EU regulations by the deadline this Thursday, it could face hefty fines of up to 5% of its global daily revenue. Discussions also touched on the issue of Apple's "core technology fees."

Report: Some American companies have begun producing solid-state batteries. The American startup Ion Storage Systems has started producing solid-state batteries and is shipping test units to potential customers, including the U.S. Department of Defense and several unnamed electronics manufacturers, paving the way for large-scale commercialization. It is reported that the energy density of this solid-state battery is 50% higher than that of traditional lithium-ion batteries, charges faster, and has almost no fire risk.

Industry/Concept

1. Oil Shipping: Recently, the intensity of the conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, with Iran announcing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which could severely damage global crude oil supply, subsequently raising oil prices. The detours taken by oil tankers have lengthened shipping distances, leading to a reduction in effective capacity and raising the central price of oil shipping. This week, VLCC rates rose to $53,449 per day, with rates on Middle Eastern routes jumping to $62,552 per day. With the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz coming into effect, TCE may break $100,000 in the short term.

2. IoT Modules: Soochow Securities' research report points out that the IoT chip module industry is driven by trends in AI, robotics, autonomous driving, and 5G from major companies, combined with a comprehensive recovery in the IoT downstream sector. The marginal fundamentals are expected to improve, likely leading to an explosion alongside edge-side AI.

3. Stablecoins: Minsheng Securities notes that the implementation of the stablecoin bill in Hong Kong represents an acceleration in the development of cutting-edge financial technologies such as blockchain and cryptocurrencies. It also reflects the positive attitude of the Hong Kong region towards financial technology innovation. On June 17, the U.S. "GENIUS" bill was enacted, and both China and the U.S. are accelerating their entry into the stablecoin field. Circle, one of the global leaders in stablecoins, has seen its stock price rise over 675% since its listing, with a market capitalization approaching $53 billion.

4. Beef Cattle: Guosen Securities points out that domestic beef cattle prices have risen by 10.49% year-on-year this year, while fresh milk prices have decreased by 7.88% year-on-year, resulting in a meat-to-milk ratio of 20.97, a historical high. Looking ahead, the beef cattle industry is entering a major reversal cycle after supply clearance, with price increases expected to continue until 2027. In terms of raw milk, the supply-demand pattern is expected to improve in the second half of the year, coupled with continuous price increases in overseas bulk powder, indicating that raw milk prices may also recover.

Today's News Preview

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver his semi-annual monetary policy testimony in the House of Representatives.

New York Fed President John Williams, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and Boston Fed President Susan Collins will speak.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak.

U.S. April S&P/CS 20-City Home Price Index.

The Summer Davos Forum is being held until June 26.NATO heads of state and government will hold a summit in The Hague from June 24 to 25, and Trump has confirmed his attendance.