No panic! The rise in oil prices has quickly narrowed, spot gold opened higher and then turned to decline, and the decline in U.S. stock futures has narrowed

After the United States launched airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, Asian markets opened on Monday in a typical risk-averse mode, but there was no panic selling in the market.

U.S. stock futures opened lower but narrowed their losses, oil prices surged before quickly retreating, and gold rose before pulling back:

The S&P 500 index futures opened down about 1%, then narrowed the decline to around 0.4%;

In the Asian market, Brent crude oil once rose nearly 6%, but the gains continued to narrow, with both WTI and Brent crude oil now up within 3%;

The U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro and most major currencies;

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose 2 basis points to 4.396%;

Spot gold opened higher today but continued to decline, currently reported at $3,366.28 per ounce, down nearly $30 from the intraday high;

Bitcoin fell 3%, dipping to $99,000 at one point.

According to reports from CCTV News and Global Times, on June 21 local time, U.S. President Trump posted on his social media platform "Truth Social" that the U.S. had completed attacks on three Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, stating that "Iran's Fordow (nuclear facility) no longer exists."

Trump mentioned the possibility of "regime change" in Iran for the first time on Sunday, contrasting with previous statements from U.S. officials. According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump wrote on social media on the 22nd: "It may not be politically correct to use the term 'regime change,' but if the current regime in Iran cannot make Iran great again, then why not change the regime? Make Iran great again!"

Additionally, according to a report by Xinhua News Agency citing the "Jerusalem Post," Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated on the 22nd that Iran's nuclear and missile programs have been "severely damaged," and Israel's operational goals are "very close to completion." Netanyahu said at a press conference that Israel would not engage in a war of attrition with Iran but would not cease fire until the mission is completed. He stated that the U.S. bombing caused "significant damage" to the Fordow nuclear facility. Israel is tracking "the 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% that Iran possesses" and has obtained "important intelligence."

Despite the escalation of geopolitical tensions, Iran has not shown significant signs of retaliation so far, and the market reaction has been relatively restrained. Investors are assessing the likelihood of further escalation, particularly whether Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transport route. Analysts believe that if Iran takes such extreme actions, oil prices could soar to $120-150 and have broader impacts on the global economy.

Market Reaction Relatively Restrained: Oil Prices, Gold, and the Dollar Rise, U.S. Stock Futures Decline

The sharp decline in S&P 500 mini futures at the opening was quickly corrected. Futures initially fell 60 points or 1%, but as investor sentiment stabilized, the decline rapidly narrowed. The latest trading price returned to near the 6,000-point level, just about 2% away from the historical high.

Similar reactions have also appeared in crude oil prices. WTI crude oil futures opened and briefly surged to $79 per barrel, before retreating to $76, an increase of 2.95%. The Brent crude spot price spread widened from $1.53 last Friday to $1.99, indicating a bullish pattern that reflects market concerns over tight spot supply.

Muyu Xu, senior oil analyst at Kpler Ltd., stated: "The market will closely monitor Iran's response, especially whether it will take action to disrupt oil flows in the Middle East, either directly or indirectly through its regional proxies. If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, even for just one day, oil prices could temporarily reach $120 per barrel, or even $150."

Reports indicate that the Iranian parliament has called for the closure of the strait, but such measures require explicit approval from Supreme Leader Khamenei. Polymarket data shows that the market expects a roughly 35% probability of the Strait of Hormuz being closed.

The dollar strengthened in early trading, recording modest gains against major currencies like the euro. As of the time of writing, the dollar index rose 0.22% to 98.99. Since the outbreak of the conflict, the dollar has cumulatively risen about 0.9%, but the increase remains limited relative to the dollar's traditional safe-haven role.

"The biggest trading theme right now is shorting the dollar," said Neil Birrell, Chief Investment Officer at Premier Miton Investors. "No one likes the dollar. But traditionally, it is the safe currency people seek in turbulent times, which could just reverse the dollar's fate."

In other forex news, the Swiss franc is the only major currency that has remained stable against the dollar. The yen has fallen sharply, reminding investors of Japan's fiscal predicament, with merged debt accounting for 400% of GDP.

Gold prices surged at the open but have since retreated, currently maintaining a slight increase, reported at $3,369 as of the time of writing.

In contrast, Bitcoin has plummeted amid geopolitical turmoil. Bitcoin has fallen below the $100,000 mark for the first time since May, and Ethereum has also seen a significant decline.