Several Bayesian signals indicating the peak of the labubu phenomenon

Buy when no one cares, sell when the crowd is roaring?

In our previous article on the emotional value in deflation, we conducted an in-depth analysis of this year's booming new consumption from the perspective of spiritual consumption. The commonality among POP MART, Lao Pu, and Mi Xue is not in the classic sense of the "Giffen effect," but rather satisfying the upward identity imagination of the class with the lowest bearable cost—a broad sense of "identity economics." The core attribute of these three companies is that they are all using extremely low threshold spending to allow consumers to purchase a sense of "identity."

The LABUBU phenomenon has evolved from being popular only on social media when we first discussed it to now being LABUBU everywhere. Traditional media is flooded with news about LABUBU, and even the number of LABUBU seized by customs is shared in various WeChat groups, with both imported genuine products and exported domestic versions.

I have many friends who are fans of trendy toys and some who work in the trendy toy industry, so I am somewhat familiar with this sector. The LABUBU phenomenon reminds me of the Be@rbrick, another trendy toy. Back then, having at least two Be@rbricks was a must for almost every influencer; otherwise, you couldn't be considered top-tier. Even when my childhood friend renovated their home and shared pictures, I could see that they had a special spot for two Be@rbricks. Over time, it became more and more common, from initially thinking "wow, that's so cool" to later not caring whether it was genuine or fake; I just felt indifferent.

Going further back, during my time studying in the U.S., every classmate had a pair of Yeezy Boosts, which gradually spread to other shoes like AJ and the reverse swoosh. The sneaker flipping hobby, which started as a passion for many young people, eventually became profitable and turned into a primary source of income for some. A typical example is my childhood friend's younger brother, who transitioned from flipping sneakers to becoming a luxury goods buyer when there were no more sneakers to flip.

Then there are trading cards (which Edison Chen loves; he is also a trendy toy icon, right?). Following that came NFTs and the frenzy in the cryptocurrency space, where an avatar could sell for tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of dollars, making SOL as significant as ETH. These phenomena, like tulips, rise and then quietly dissipate. Therefore, the current LABUBU, in our view, is not much different from Be@rbricks or AJ shoes; how it rises and how crazily it is speculated will determine how it eventually falls, just a matter of when.

Reviewing the Common Signals of "Young People Speculating on Assets" at Their Peaks

The four categories mentioned earlier are Be@rbrick, sneaker flipping, trading cards, and NFTs. They all exhibited very similar signals when they peaked in the past. To summarize, the signals can be categorized into four types: popularity, supply, price, and derivative play. When detailed, they can be broken down into five dimensions, which we will analyze one by one.

1. Media & Search Popularity Peaks First → The emotional arc enters "attention saturation."

2. Producers take advantage of high prices to release goods in large quantities → Queue time shortened, secondary listing volume surges.

Currently, there are no signs of large-scale releases from the official POP MART, but the domestic version of LABUBU is rampant. Searching for LABUBU on Xianyu, the prices from low to high show that the cheapest LABUBU is the domestic version, priced slightly below 100 yuan each. The domestic version of LABUBU is flooding Huaqiangbei. In recent days, a counterfeit link in a Douyin live stream sold 4,000 pieces in half an hour.

3. "High-end remains strong - Mid-range collapses" price gap widens → Demand levels differentiate, average price turns around.

This phenomenon is quite evident with LABUBU. High-end models have been auctioned for 1.08 million, but at the same time, the domestic version on Xianyu has directly lowered the entire price range, with Dongguan goods now priced at just 29.9 each. The hidden models in the third generation of LABUBU have also shown signs of peak and decline, with the average price of non-hidden models in the third generation of LABUBU starting to drop on Xianyu.

4. Liquidity stagnation → Transaction volume may remain high but prices plummet, Bid-Ask spreads widen.

LABUBU still has fast liquidity, with daily transactions on QianDao and DeWu remaining in the hundreds, indicating that there are still willing buyers. Leasing and modifying dolls, among other light asset plays, are thriving, temporarily boosting liquidity on the display side. However, this part of the demand is extremely price-sensitive, especially leasing, where a rental price of 30 yuan/day reduces the demand for purchasing a "Ben Wo" for 2,000 yuan in cash, meaning effective demand density is actually declining.

Currently, there are hot sales of items priced at 29.9 yuan from Dongguan factories, and scalpers are worried about accumulating inventory crashing down on them, accelerating listings. The number of ASK listings on second-hand websites has surged and is unevenly distributed. Meanwhile, the prevalence of "leasing + high imitation" has satisfied the display needs of most low-tier players, which has suppressed tail-end demand and limited buyers' highest bids for genuine products The speculative mentality of scalpers will gradually shift to prioritize "quick in and out" arbitrage.

5. Proliferation of financial derivatives → penetration of mortgages, funds, indices, fractional trading, etc.

For LABUBU, the consumption platform itself provides installment payment functions, with payment methods such as DeWu installment and Alipay consumer loans on Xianyu. At the same time, a rental model has already begun to emerge among players, with a price of 30 yuan/day, and search volume has surged. Whether there will be large-scale mortgages and indexation or other more financial derivative products in the future remains uncertain.

Bayesian Probability Calculation

In the past, assets providing emotional value have collapsed. In addition to the four we mentioned, we have listed a total of six relatively famous assets over the past five years, of which 87% experienced price collapses.

Combining the phenomena observed in five dimensions, we use this as evidence to calculate likelihood.

Then, using the Bayesian equation to calculate the posterior probability, it can be fairly certain that LABUBU will replicate the objective probability of price corrections of emotional value assets like AJ and Violent Bear being ≥50% in the next 6-12 months, approximately 95% (± 10 percentage points).

The decline in scarcity caused by the spread of popularity from "rich women's circles to student circles"

This may be the most interesting part of the discussion, stemming from observations around us. What is the origin? It is seeing friends say that their children have also started to show interest in LABUBU and want to have one (of course, they are older, probably in middle school). This indicates that the popularity of LABUBU has begun to spread from the rich women's circle to the student circle. There are two concepts here: one is the vitality of the IP, and the other is the financial attributes or collectible value of the IP. The process of diffusion is one where the vitality of the IP increases, but the financial attributes of the IP decrease.

However, along with the diffusion comes the dilution of scarcity, not only the scarcity of goods but also the dilution of the scarcity of recognition within this circle. We observe the dilution of scarcity from the diffusion path of "rich women's circle → student girls' circle."

• Innovation Diffusion Model (Rogers) Innovators / Early adopters (rich women and trendy toy KOLs): low price sensitivity, willing to pay for scarcity and emotional premiums. Early majority (students): high price elasticity, more focused on availability and social following. When the crowd shifts from the former to the latter, the "bottom quantity" of the demand curve increases, but the peak willingness to pay decreases.

• "Identity Hierarchy" Sinking In the context of trendy toys, the transaction price of rich women/KOLs often determines the "anchor point"; the student group follows the anchor point upwards. When the anchor group exits, the highest bid disappears → the price ceiling shifts downwards. Analogy: After 2017, Supreme entered the "Logo Everywhere" phase, social media popularity peaked, but the average premium of Box-Logo slid from 5–6× to 1.2–1.5×.

• Supply Elasticity Rapidly Increases Facing a more mainstream audience, brands often increase supply (GR blind boxes, co-branded pop-ups, licensed plush toys) to "consume volume." Supply growth rate > high-end demand growth rate → premium rate, transaction price, and auction records decrease.

This phenomenon also occurs with Be@rbrick, AJ, Supreme, and Funko Pop. All experienced a tiered collapse in second-hand prices within 6-12 months after social media popularity peaked, leading to a decline in scarcity.

For example, the most powerful consumer group, the rich women, carrying their Hermes bags with a LABUBU "Ben Wo," then seeing students on the street with the third generation of LABUBU on their backpacks, even if it's not "Ben Wo," they might feel uncomfortable. This phenomenon is similar in the ACG (Anime, Comic, Game) circle; many people do not pursue overly popular characters for the same reason. Because LABUBU itself is a self-consumption that reflects identity and individuality. The increase in supply (whether genuine or counterfeit) leads to diffusion, and the unclear identity within the circle precisely undermines the original intention of those who loved this IP at that time.

IP Vitality Enhancement ≠ IP Longevity

For trendy toys/collectibles, its supply-demand model is different from the classic supply-demand model; scarcity itself is "utility." Increasing supply raises availability (Quantity Demanded↑), but at the same time weakens the "show-off - identity - collection" utility (Willingness to Pay↓)—ultimately often manifested as sales may be larger in the short term, but prices and financial premiums fall simultaneously, and in the end, supply↑ ≠ demand↑

Three Mechanisms Explained: "Increase in Supply ≠ Increase in Demand"

In the collectibles market, the demand function is inherently "embedded" with scarcity: when supply increases—whether from genuine restocking or counterfeit goods—it does not linearly push up demand. Instead, it weakens identity signals, anchor prices, and imitation motives, resulting in an overall decline in willingness to pay, ultimately manifesting as "quantity may increase, but prices and financialization premiums decline simultaneously."

For brands, the biggest challenge is how to increase volume without sacrificing the 'top anchor point'; for investors, once they see the "scarcity barrier" loosening and high-end buyers exiting, it is a classic precursor to the bubble inflection point.

The above five Bayesian evidence chains are verified one by one with the latest public information:

Signal Verification (A-E)

The posterior sensitivity raises A from 0.6 to 1.0, and if D subsequently rises from 1.7 to 2.0, the posterior probability will increase from 94% to ~97%. In other words, "high heat peaking + liquidity contraction" are the last two nails.

LABUBU is experiencing a familiar curve sliding from "cool symbol" to "mass-market toy." Over the past three months, Baidu and Weibo's popularity peaked one after another, shifting the topic to "counterfeits rampant" and "no more queues," indicating that sentiment has saturated; meanwhile, the massive shipments of the domestic version at 29.9 yuan and frequent customs seizures effectively discounted official scarcity. Although high-end auction prices occasionally hit new highs, the average price of three generations of ordinary models on Xianyu has slightly declined for four consecutive weeks, confirming the classic downward adjustment rhythm of "top firm - mid-range plunge."

The daily transaction volume of Dewu and Qianshao remains strong, but with a Bid-Ask spread of 15-40%, indicating that liquidity comes more from scalpers "quick in and out" rather than true collectors. More significantly, the rapid rise of light asset models like leasing and doll modification: for thirty yuan a day, one can meet display needs, why would marginal buyers spend two thousand to purchase genuine items? This is precisely the eve of the Veblen effect's decline and the disintegration of identity anchor points. If "mortgage lending" or "index funds" emerge subsequently, it means the last dam of financialization has also been breached—history tells us that this is often the sound of the final gong for a bubble.

Considering the turning point of popularity, the flood of supply, the widening price gap, and the light asset crowding-out effect, LABUBU has a very high probability of replicating the decline of Be@rbrick and sneaker speculation within six to twelve months. For brands, timely contraction of supply and the re-establishment of top mystery are essential; For holders, if it is not a true love collection, one should cherish the current liquidity that can still be liquidated, getting off the bus earlier in a bustling environment rather than sharing the echoes of a bubble burst when the sea is calm.

This article is sourced from: The Beauty of Bayesian, original title: "Several Bayesian Signals Indicating the Peak of the Labubu Phenomenon"

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