Will stablecoins 迎来 their iPhone moment?

On June 17, the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act with 68 votes in favor and 30 against, establishing regulatory rules for cryptocurrencies pegged to the U.S. dollar. This is a milestone victory for stablecoins and even crypto assets, marking the entry of the digital asset industry into a new era. The bill has now been submitted to the House of Representatives for review. President Trump stated that he hopes to sign the stablecoin legislation before Congress goes on recess in August.

In the current stablecoin market, USDT and USDC are the two major players. As of June 2025, the total market capitalization of global stablecoins has surpassed $250 billion, with USDT dominating the market with a 60% absolute advantage (approximately $150 billion), while USDC ranks second with over $60 billion (24% market share), together accounting for nearly 90% of the market share. (For details on USDC, see below)

With the advancement of the GENIUS Act, Circle, the issuer of USDC, may become the biggest winner. Its long-term proactive embrace of regulation—continuously promoting asset audit transparency, cooperating with U.S. regulatory guidance, and primarily holding cash and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds as reserve assets—positions it well. After the bill's passage, USDC, with its unique attributes of being "registered in the U.S., clearly audited, and regulatory-friendly," is expected to further increase its penetration in payment networks such as Visa, Mastercard, and PayPal.

USDT faces challenges to its survival model. Tether, the issuer of USDT, is headquartered in the British Virgin Islands and has long relied on "offshore opacity" as its moat, with the composition of its asset reserves frequently questioned. With the implementation of the GENIUS Act, the circulation of USDT in the U.S. will undoubtedly be significantly impacted. Although Tether is not without options, its alternatives are not easy: 1. Actively apply for a U.S. license according to regulatory requirements; 2. Abandon the U.S. market and shift focus to Asia, the Middle East, and other regions; 3. Establish cooperative mechanisms with compliant platforms to indirectly access compliant networks through "layered issuance" or "bridge connections."

Overall, although USDT still holds advantages due to its liquidity, network effects, and global adoption rate, the complexity and time costs of its compliance transformation provide a valuable window for USDC. USDC is expected to leverage the momentum of the GENIUS Act to accelerate its penetration in global payment networks and institutional scenarios, potentially significantly increasing its market share.

USDC Overview

USDC is a U.S. dollar stablecoin issued by Circle, currently ranking second with a market capitalization exceeding $60 billion, and is the largest U.S. dollar stablecoin certified for regulatory compliance in the U.S. Circle is the largest stablecoin issuer in the U.S. In 2018, Circle and Coinbase jointly established the Centre Consortium alliance to launch the USDC dollar stablecoin (each holding 50% stake) Circle is responsible for the technical issuance and reserve management of USDC, while Coinbase is responsible for distribution and promotion, and the two parties have reached a distribution agreement. In August 2023, Circle acquired the remaining 50% stake in Centre Consortium from Coinbase for $210 million in stock, gaining full control over USDC management, although both parties continue to maintain close cooperation.

Since its launch, USDC has emphasized transparency and compliance, strictly adhering to U.S. regulatory and compliance frameworks, and regularly disclosing the company's reserve asset situation on a monthly basis to maintain a high level of transparency. For every dollar of USDC issued, Circle reserves investments in a portfolio of highly liquid, low-risk assets, such as short-term U.S. Treasury bonds and cash deposits, to ensure liquidity and redemption stability for USDC holders. The reserve strategy for USDC is constrained by legal and prudential regulations, requiring the maintenance of Treasury bills with maturities of 90 days or less, collateralized Treasury repos, and cash to ensure its status as a cash equivalent. Currently, USDC reserves are primarily held in the Circle Reserve Fund, a government money market fund managed by BlackRock, registered with the SEC. As of April 11, $53.5 billion (approximately 88%) of USDC reserves consist of U.S. Treasury bonds and overnight repo agreements with multiple financial institutions, all with maturities of less than 2 months.

Additionally, 11% of the reserves are cash held in regulated banks. The income generated from the reserve assets backing USDC has brought Circle $1.66 billion in reserve asset income in 2024.

With its advantages of greater compliance and transparency, USDC has significant growth potential in the future and may become the preferred stablecoin for institutions. Currently, the competitive landscape for centralized stablecoins is relatively clear, with USDT being the largest stablecoin. The main advantage of USDT lies in its strong binding to larger futures contracts in the market, particularly with a high market share on the Binance platform, resulting in greater market capitalization and liquidity. However, the biggest issue with USDT is that Tether is controlled by a European team, which raises concerns about insufficient regulation and gray areas related to illegal activities, as well as being outside U.S. jurisdiction and having weaker information disclosure. Leveraging its position as the largest stablecoin, Tether currently has a good business model, with a net profit of $13 billion in 2024 and only 150 employees. The core reason is that its first-mover advantage has reduced distribution costs, and relaxed regulation has led to higher circulation and investment returns.

However, USDC is currently more compliant and transparent, and with support from the U.S. government, it is more likely to become the preferred stablecoin for institutions. USDC has strict compliance and regulatory policies, adhering to the EU's MiCA regulations and relevant U.S. laws, and its reserve reports are audited monthly by Deloitte Therefore, under the context of compliance and better alignment with U.S. regulations and demands, USDC may have greater growth potential in the future, and its market share will steadily increase.

Key Events

• On June 18, Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the central bank, mentioned "stablecoins" for the first time at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum. He stated that new technologies are accelerating their application in the field of cross-border payments, and new technologies such as blockchain and distributed ledgers are promoting the vigorous development of central bank digital currencies and stablecoins, reshaping the traditional payment system from the ground up, significantly shortening the chain of cross-border payments, while also posing significant challenges to financial regulation. Technologies such as smart contracts and decentralized finance will continue to drive the evolution and development of the cross-border payment system.

• On June 17, the U.S. Senate's stablecoin bill, the "GENIUS Act," was overwhelmingly passed with a vote of 68 to 30, receiving bipartisan support. The bill has now been submitted to the House of Representatives for review, and it is the first significant digital asset legislation to gain approval in the Senate and is currently under consideration in the U.S. House of Representatives, establishing rules for stablecoin issuers.

• On June 17, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission approved BGE's application for a virtual asset trading platform license. Relevant information shows that the name of the virtual asset trading platform operator submitted by BGE is "Hong Kong BGE Limited." As of now, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has approved a total of 11 licensed virtual asset institutions, with 9 applications for virtual asset trading platforms currently under review.

• JP Morgan is further entering the cryptocurrency space by launching a stablecoin-like token called JPMD. The American banking giant revealed on June 17 that it plans to launch the so-called "deposit token" on Coinbase's public blockchain Base (built on the Ethereum network). Each deposit token is intended to serve as a digital representation of commercial bank deposits. JPMD will provide customers with 24-hour settlement services and support interest payments to holders. It is classified as a "permissioned token," meaning it is only open to JP Morgan's institutional clients—unlike many public-facing stablecoins.

• Coinbase announced on its public platform that "Coinbase Derivatives is collaborating with Nodal Clear to introduce USDC as collateral into the U.S. futures market. We will work closely with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to achieve this goal. Stablecoins represent the future of currency, and Coinbase is empowering that future."

• Ant Group stated that it will apply for stablecoin licenses in the Hong Kong region and Singapore, involving two of its subsidiaries: one is Ant International, headquartered in Singapore, and the other is Ant Digital Technologies, with its overseas headquarters in Hong Kong Ant International also plans to seek permission in Luxembourg. This move aims to strengthen the fintech company's blockchain business and support its cross-border payment and fund management services.

• Liu Peng, CEO of JD Coin Chain Technology under JD Technology, recently stated that they are testing a compliant stablecoin pegged to the Hong Kong dollar and other currencies within the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's "sandbox," with plans to launch as early as the fourth quarter of this year, initially applying it to the settlement scenarios of JD Global Sales in Hong Kong and Macau. Liu Peng pointed out that JD's stablecoin will focus on the traditional cross-border trade market, connecting real payment needs in the Asia-Pacific, Middle East, and Africa with advantages such as compliance, security, and auditability. JD stated that this information is accurate, but the timing has clear prerequisites: the specific timeline depends on regulation, "We expect to obtain a license in early fourth quarter this year and simultaneously launch JD's stablecoin. The JD stablecoin will be issued on a public chain, and at that time, anyone can publicly access data such as issuance volume."

• On June 14, the National Assembly of Vietnam approved the "Digital Technology Industry Law," bringing digital assets under regulatory oversight. It is reported that this law will take effect on January 1, 2026, recognizing crypto assets and laying the foundation for broader digital innovation across Vietnam. The law categorizes digital assets into two types: virtual assets and crypto assets. Although both rely on cryptography or digital technology for verification and transfer, they do not include securities, digital legal tender, or other financial instruments. The current task of regulatory agencies is to outline the specific commercial conditions, classifications, and supervision mechanisms for these asset types.

Article authors: Zhou Hao, Sun Yingchao, source: GTJAI Macro Research, original title: "[Guotai Junan International Digital Asset Research] Will Stablecoins Welcome Their iPhone Moment?"

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