Wall Street closely watches "LAOPU GOLD": Goldman Sachs focuses on "6.27 lifting of restrictions," Morgan Stanley focuses on "first overseas store"

Wall Street's two major investment banks are closely watching LAOPU GOLD — Goldman Sachs focuses on the opportunity to build positions after the June 27th share unlock, while Morgan Stanley emphasizes the strategic significance of the first overseas store in Singapore.

On June 17th, according to news from the Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley released research reports on LAOPU GOLD. Among them, Goldman Sachs is aggressively bullish, significantly raising LAOPU GOLD's 12-month target price from HKD 976 to HKD 1,090, maintaining a buy rating. Goldman Sachs particularly emphasizes three upcoming catalysts:

• First, the potential pullback after approximately 40% of shares are unlocked on June 27th will provide a good opportunity to build positions;
• Second, the company will open its first overseas store in Singapore during the same period;
• Third, a profit warning for the first half of the year is expected to be released by the end of July, with a projected net profit growth of about 260% year-on-year.

Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, cautiously gives a neutral rating with a target price of HKD 865, believing that the store located in the Marina Bay Sands shopping center in Singapore will directly impact market confidence in LAOPU GOLD's overseas expansion capabilities. The Singapore store is set to open between June 20th and 30th, and Morgan Stanley advises investors to focus on three aspects of the Singapore store:

• The product mix should remain similar to that of Greater China;
• Pricing strategies relative to the Hong Kong and mainland China markets;
• Demand performance from local residents and non-Chinese tourists.

Goldman Sachs: Strong fundamentals exceed expectations, unlock pullback may become a "golden pit"

Goldman Sachs' confidence in LAOPU GOLD stems from its consistently exceeding operational data expectations.

The bank has raised its net profit forecasts for 2025-27 by 15-26% and increased the 12-month target price from HKD 976 to HKD 1,090, maintaining a "buy" rating. This is backed by three core driving forces:

• Remarkable performance growth momentum: According to Goldman Sachs' channel research, even amidst price fluctuations and a high base, LAOPU GOLD's same-store sales growth rate (SSSG) for April and May has maintained a strong triple-digit growth. Online channels have seen explosive growth, with total GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) reaching RMB 1.6 billion from January to May this year, a staggering year-on-year increase of 511%. The pace of store expansion has also surpassed the company's previous guidance of 6-8 stores annually.

• Brand premium capability highlighted: The newly launched "Seven Sons Gourd" series on May 30th has achieved significant success. This series has downplayed the traditional appearance of gold in its design, yet its price per gram is 3-11% higher than similar craft products. Within just 17 days of its launch, it generated RMB 34 million in GMV on Tmall's flagship store. More importantly, its second-hand market value remains above 90% of the original price, far exceeding the industry average of 85%, strongly demonstrating the brand's powerful premium capability

• Multiple Catalysts Ready to Unleash: Goldman Sachs has outlined a series of upcoming positive catalysts for investors. In addition to the opening of a new store in Singapore at the end of June, the company is expected to issue a profit warning for the first half of the year by the end of July, with net profit expected to increase by approximately 260% year-on-year. Furthermore, new stores in top shopping centers such as Shanghai IFC will also open successively. Therefore, Goldman Sachs believes that the short-term stock price fluctuations that may arise from the unlocking of about 40% of shares on June 27 create a strategic opportunity for investors who are optimistic about the company's long-term value to buy on dips.

Morgan Stanley: Cautiously Observing the Effects of Overseas Expansion

In contrast to Goldman Sachs' focus on strong growth in existing businesses, Morgan Stanley is looking at overseas expansion. The firm has given a neutral rating, with the core logic being whether LAOPU GOLD's overseas story can be effectively communicated, which hinges on the performance of the first store in Singapore.

• Strategic Location and Market Potential: According to Morgan Stanley's field research, this new store is located at the entrance of the casino in the Marina Bay Sands shopping center in Singapore, a must-pass area for top foot traffic. The sales data of tenants in this shopping center (USD 2,900 per square foot) is about 15% higher than that of The Venetian Macao, providing data support for the new store's excellent performance. Management also expects this store to become one of the highest-performing stores in terms of sales per square foot in the network.

• Key Test for Overseas Expansion: The strategic significance of this store far exceeds its individual financial contribution. It is seen as a foothold for capturing the demand of high-end Chinese tourists. If it can successfully open the market, it will greatly boost investor confidence in the company's expansion potential across the Southeast Asian market. Conversely, if performance falls short of expectations, it may raise doubts in the market about its overseas growth story.

Morgan Stanley advises investors to closely monitor three aspects after the store opens. Whether the product mix is consistent with that of Greater China. Whether there are differences in pricing strategies compared to the mainland China and Hong Kong markets. The proportion of demand from local residents and non-Chinese tourists in the customer composition, which will reflect the brand's appeal in non-Chinese cultural circles.

In summary, Goldman Sachs' optimism is based on solid and better-than-expected existing business data, while Morgan Stanley's caution stems from concerns about the uncertainty of future new growth curves (overseas markets)