China's AI/AR glasses about to explode? Goldman Sachs: Will replicate the explosive growth path of TWS earbuds, with sales reaching 7 million units by 2030!

AI/AR glasses - the next growth engine in the consumer electronics industry is starting up. With prices continuously declining, functionalities improving, and ecosystems gradually maturing, Goldman Sachs predicts that its growth trajectory will mirror that of TWS earbuds during their explosive period from 2017 to 2023.

According to news from the Chasing Wind Trading Desk, the Chinese AI/AR glasses market is entering a phase of explosive growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 56% in shipments from 2024 to 2030, and the market size expected to reach $1 billion by 2030, with shipments reaching 7 million units.

Goldman Sachs stated that as price thresholds rapidly decline, consumer acceptance soars. Currently, most products on the market are priced below 2,500 RMB (approximately $350), and during the upcoming 618 shopping festival, Chinese brands are offering discounts of about 19%, which is expected to stimulate strong short-term demand growth.

Behind this aggressive pricing strategy is the rapid improvement in technological maturity and the emergence of supply chain scale effects. Goldman Sachs predicts that the average selling price of AI/AR glasses will continue to decline from $306 in 2025 to $192 in 2030, paving the way for widespread adoption.

In addition, the continuous enhancement of AI functionalities is becoming a key differentiator for products. Currently, mainstream products support features such as real-time translation, environmental recognition Q&A, and meeting minutes summarization. Rokid glasses will integrate multiple large language models, including Tongyi Qianwen, while Meta's products will feature self-developed AI models, and Lenovo's products will also embed multimodal AI assistants.

Tech giants intensively layout new products, application scenarios expand to productivity tools

Goldman Sachs stated that the market is entering a period of intensive product innovation:

Meta's Ray-Ban Meta AI glasses have surpassed 2 million units in sales as of February 2025, with subsequent products Oakley Meta AI glasses and Hypernova set to launch in the second half of 2025.

More notably, Apple plans to launch smart glasses equipped with cameras and voice assistants in 2026, while Xiaomi and Alibaba will also release related products soon. Google is promoting its Android XR operating system through partnerships with hardware suppliers like Xreal, integrating Gemini AI functionalities.

Xreal has launched the Project Aura in collaboration with Google, Lenovo released two AI/AR new products in May, and brands like Rokid, RayNeo, Meizu, and INMO continue to introduce new products to capture market share.

Goldman Sachs further pointed out that the application scenarios for AI/AR glasses are rapidly expanding, evolving from initial entertainment functions to productivity tools.

In the entertainment sector, users can watch movies on a virtual big screen and enjoy an immersive audio experience; in work and learning scenarios, real-time translation and subtitle overlay functions significantly enhance efficiency; in daily life, first-person perspective video recording capabilities meet social sharing needs.

Consumer interest in AI/AR glasses mainly focuses on four aspects: providing smart assistant functions as early AI edge devices; offering a large-screen virtual display experience; supporting social functions for first-person perspective video recording; Trendy designs in collaboration with fashion brands.

Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the deep integration of AI features is becoming a key factor in product differentiation. Rokid glasses connect to multiple large language models such as Tongyi Qianwen and DeepSeek, while RayNeo's V3 AI glasses are equipped with a customized AI large model, and Meta's products integrate their self-developed WAKE-AI model, supporting real-time conversation and environmental recognition.

Affordable pricing drives popularity, supply chain benefits comprehensively

Goldman Sachs states that pricing factors have become a key driving force for market growth:

Hardware cost analysis shows that there are significant differences in the cost structure of AI glasses and AR glasses. For AI glasses without a display, the SoC chip accounts for 35%-40% of the cost, while structural components, charging cases, and outsourcing costs each account for over 10%.

In terms of AR glasses, the display and optical modules together account for 45%-55% of the total cost, while the SoC chip accounts for 20%-25%. This cost structure provides clear benefits for related supply chain companies.

Currently, most products on the market are priced below 2,500 yuan (approximately 350 USD), and during the upcoming 618 shopping festival, Chinese brands are offering discounts of about 19%, far exceeding the usual 15%-18% promotional range for smartphones.

In addition, Goldman Sachs indicates that supply chain companies are optimistic about this trend. Longqi Technology (603341.SS) expects AI glasses to achieve stronger growth in 2025 compared to 2024, Weir Shares focuses on opportunities in LCOS and CIS chips, and Sunny Optical is investing in building full system ODM capabilities for AR glasses