With support from energy and defensive stocks, the UK stock market may become the best safe haven against geopolitical risks?

Wallstreetcn
2025.06.18 11:34
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Citigroup stated that Shell and BP PLC-Spons account for about 10% of the FTSE 100 Index. If geopolitical risks continue to rise, this typically benefits the European energy sector as well as traditional defensive sectors

As geopolitical storms sweep through global markets once again, Citigroup's strategists have found a safe haven amid the ruins.

The Citigroup strategist team pointed out in their latest research report that the UK stock market, with its high exposure to energy companies and traditional defensive stocks, may provide the best protection for investors against escalating geopolitical tensions. Recent conflicts in the Middle East have led to a nearly 10% spike in oil prices.

"If geopolitical risks continue to rise, this typically benefits the European energy sector and traditional defensive sectors," the Citigroup team, led by Beata Manthey, wrote in the report:

"Switzerland and the UK often outperform their peers during geopolitical escalations."

Unique Advantages of the UK Stock Market

This advantage of the UK stock market stems from its unique structural configuration. The two oil giants, Shell and BP PLC-Spons, account for about 10% of the weight of the UK's blue-chip FTSE 100 index. This index reached a record closing high last week, keeping pace with gains in its continental European counterparts. Year-to-date, the index has risen by about 7%.

Similar to Switzerland, the UK stock market also has significant exposure to more defensive sectors such as large pharmaceuticals and consumer goods manufacturing, characteristics that provide it with a natural resilience during market turmoil.

It is worth noting that Manthey has an excellent track record in stock market predictions. Last year, she accurately predicted that European stocks would outperform other regions, a judgment that was ultimately validated by the market. This successful track record adds more credibility to her optimistic view on the UK stock market