U.S. Stock Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Decline, Market Focuses on U.S. May Retail Sales

1. On June 17th (Tuesday) before the US stock market opened, the three major US stock index futures all fell. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were down 0.60%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.58%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.62%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index was down 1.24%, the UK FTSE 100 index was down 0.46%, the French CAC 40 index was down 1.07%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was down 1.31%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was up 1.74%, priced at $71.47 per barrel. Brent crude oil was up 1.78%, priced at $74.53 per barrel.

Market News

Rushing ahead but lacking momentum? US retail sales in May may see a significant decline. Due to consumers shopping early to avoid potential price increases from tariffs, US retail sales in May may show a noticeable drop. Economists expect that American consumers slowed their use of credit and debit cards during the month, leading to a cooling of overall consumption enthusiasm. According to a FactSet survey, US retail sales in May are expected to decline by 0.7% month-on-month, compared to a mere 0.1% increase in April, making this decline particularly striking. Economist Sam Tombs from Pantheon Macroeconomics predicts that the decline in retail sales in May could reach 1%, which, if realized, would be the largest monthly drop since March 2023. The US Census Bureau will release the latest preliminary monthly data on retail and food service sales on Tuesday at 8:30 AM, and investors are closely watching.

Why isn't the Federal Reserve cutting rates despite cooling inflation? Federal Reserve spokesperson: If not for tariffs, rates would be cut this week. "Federal Reserve spokesperson" Nick Timiraos pointed out in an article that there is ample reason to believe that if it weren't for the risks tariffs pose to prices, the Federal Reserve would be prepared to cut rates this week due to recent improvements in inflation. Instead, Federal Reserve officials are expected to extend their wait-and-see attitude on Wednesday. During this meeting, Federal Reserve officials will assess how the economy has responded to the record tariff increases over the past few months. Inflation data over the past three months has been relatively mild. However, officials are concerned that the tariffs announced since March may disrupt what economists call "inflation expectations." The article anticipates that whether the Federal Reserve cuts rates this year and by how much will depend to some extent on how officials view the risks to inflation expectations U.S. Senate Bill to End Clean Energy Tax Credits Early, Solar Industry Hit Hard. Republican senators have proposed a bill that plans to terminate tax credits for wind and solar energy earlier than other energy sources, making only modest changes to most other incentives. This move dashed hopes for significant cuts passed by the House of Representatives. Following the bill's announcement, solar stocks performed the worst in pre-market trading. Bloomberg New Energy Finance analyst Ethan Zindler criticized the bill's limited impact on the clean energy sector, raising its grade from D to D+. The bill will terminate incentives for wind and solar energy in 2028, while tax breaks for nuclear, hydropower, and geothermal energy will be phased out by 2036. Additionally, the bill will eliminate electric vehicle purchase credits and hydrogen production incentives, and terminate credits for companies and homeowners leasing rooftop solar systems.

Goldman Sachs: American Households Will Continue to "Support" U.S. Stocks, Retirement Savings a Key Driver. Goldman Sachs Group strategists pointed out that American households will provide crucial support for the stock market through the growing influence of retirement savings. A team led by David Kostin expects American households to directly purchase $425 billion in U.S. stocks this year, making it the second-largest source of demand after corporate purchases of $675 billion. They wrote in their report, "The 'no alternative' investment logic remains prevalent in American household retirement accounts." This term refers to investors lacking alternative assets outside of stocks. Strategists believe that the increasing share of 401(k) retirement plans in overall retirement savings, along with a greater focus on stock allocation, means that such investments have become significantly more important to the stock market. The average stock allocation in retirement accounts rose from 66% in 2013 to 71% in 2022, with stock allocation among savers in their 20s reaching as high as 90%.

U.S. Economic Slowdown + Deficit Pressure, UBS Sounds Alarm on Dollar Depreciation. UBS Wealth Management's Chief Investment Office (CIO) released a report stating that due to U.S. tariffs and uncertainty in the economic outlook, the dollar index fell to a three-year low in June. With the U.S. economy slowing and increasing concerns about the fiscal deficit, the dollar is expected to weaken further in the next 12 months. The CIO indicated that the dollar index dropped nearly 10% by 2025. More stringent U.S. tariffs than expected have weakened investors' views on American exceptionalism. The CIO believes the dollar's traditional role as a "safe haven" asset is facing challenges. The CIO expects the dollar to continue to decline as investors may "sell on rallies." Given the ongoing trend of diversifying into non-dollar assets globally and increasing concerns about the U.S. fiscal outlook, any short-term rebound in the dollar is unlikely to be sustained.

U.S. Cryptocurrency Regulation Takes a Key Step! Stablecoin Bill Passes Senate Committee. The U.S. Senate will hold a final vote on the "GENIUS Act" on June 17 (Tuesday) local time. This bill aims to regulate stablecoins and is expected to pass, with the crypto industry hoping to enhance its legitimacy through this legislation. Last Wednesday, the Senate passed a procedural motion to amend the "GENIUS Act" by a vote of 68 to 30, clearing procedural hurdles faced by the bill. The stablecoin bill will establish regulatory rules for dollar-pegged tokens used for payments The core legislative provision requires stablecoin issuers to hold 100% of their reserves in dollar-equivalent assets, including short-term U.S. Treasury bonds or regulated cash-like assets. Supporters believe this will drive dollar-pegged stablecoins to become mainstream payment tools.

Individual Stock News

Republican Senate tax bill will phase out wind and solar subsidies, causing a plunge in the solar sector. Solar stocks plummeted after Senate Republicans proposed to gradually eliminate solar and wind tax credits in a revised version of President Trump's tax and spending bill, raising concerns about the future of renewable energy subsidies. In pre-market trading, Sunrun (RUN.US) fell 32%, SolarEdge dropped 25%, Enphase (ENPH.US) declined 18%, Array Technologies (ARRY.US) fell 11%, and First Solar (FSLR.US) dropped 13%. Although the bill extends incentives for hydropower, nuclear power, and geothermal energy until 2036, the Solar Energy Industries Association warned that this could severely disrupt the domestic solar market.

Criticism intensifies as Strategy (MSTR.US) shifts to using preferred stock to purchase Bitcoin. Strategy (MSTR.US), led by Michael Saylor, has purchased $1.05 billion worth of Bitcoin over the past week, marking the third consecutive week the cryptocurrency company has funded purchases solely with preferred stock instead of common stock. Documents filed on Monday revealed that the company, formerly known as MicroStrategy, bought 10,100 Bitcoins at an average price of $104,080 between June 9 and June 15. This is the largest purchase the company has made in five weeks, bringing its total holdings to approximately $63.4 billion. As Saylor emphasizes the use of preferred stock, his cryptocurrency accumulation strategy is facing increasing scrutiny, with critics concerned about the significant premium of the company's common stock relative to its token holdings.

American Express (AXP.US) announces "largest investment ever" to revamp credit cards. American Express announced on Monday Eastern Time that it will make significant upgrades to its U.S. consumer and business Platinum cards later this year, marking the "largest investment in card renewal" in over 40 years since the card's introduction. Howard Grosfield, president of the U.S. Consumer Services Group, stated, "The benefits and services of the Platinum card resonate across generations, especially favored by millennials and Gen Z—this group accounted for 35% of total U.S. consumer spending last quarter. We will elevate the card experience to new heights, not only enhancing travel, dining, and lifestyle benefits but also innovating in visual and user experience to meet the evolving needs of our customers."

SoftBank sells $4.8 billion in T-Mobile (TMUS.US) shares to cash in and boost AI investments. SoftBank Group raised approximately $4.8 billion by selling shares of T-Mobile (TMUS.US), which will fund the Japanese company's ambitious artificial intelligence plans. The final terms of the transaction indicate that the Tokyo-based tech group sold 21.5 million shares of T-Mobile at a price of $224 per share, at the lower end of the $224 to $228 price range A discount of 3% compared to T-Mobile's closing price of $230.99 on Monday was completed through an unregistered overnight block trade. SoftBank is significantly increasing its investment, aiming to surpass human AI reasoning capabilities: it plans to invest up to $30 billion in OpenAI and collaborate to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in data centers and related infrastructure in the U.S. and globally. The company's initial debt financing plan was hindered by uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies.

From strong hold to decisive liquidation! Nvidia (NVDA.US) "iron fan" fund manager warns of multiple risks. Hedge fund founder Jonah Cheng stated that Nvidia (NVDA.US) is the most successful investment of his career. However, he has now sold his last batch of Nvidia shares and expressed doubts about the prospects of the $3.5 trillion chip giant. The fund Captain Global Fund, founded by this former UBS analyst, focuses on the technology sector and achieved a 42% return last year. The fund is one of the many beneficiaries during Nvidia's stock price surge over the past decade. When Jonah Cheng established the fund in 2016, Nvidia was one of the first stocks he bought, and he subsequently made multiple additional investments. Jonah Cheng sold all his Nvidia shares in the first quarter of this year due to concerns over delays in the delivery of its GB200 server racks.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing time 20:30: U.S. May Import Price Index MoM (%), U.S. May Retail Sales MoM (%).

Beijing time 21:15: U.S. May Industrial Production MoM (%).

Next day Beijing time 04:30: U.S. API Crude Oil Inventory Change (10,000 barrels) for the week ending June 13