The escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict has led to rising crude oil prices, a decline in European and American stock index futures, and a sharp drop in South Korean stocks

On Tuesday, the 17th, European and American stock index futures fell, oil prices surged, and gold prices fluctuated. Just hours earlier, the market was still immersed in an optimistic sentiment regarding the controllability of the Israel-Iran conflict.

Asian stock markets showed a mixed trend, with the Asia Composite Index slightly up, Japanese stocks rising, but South Korean stocks plummeting, with the Seoul Composite Index down 0.7%, erasing an earlier gain of up to 1.8%. Semiconductor-related stocks benefited from the continued momentum of artificial intelligence trading and rose.

According to Global Network, Trump's remarks about withdrawing from Tehran, posted on social media during the G7 summit, sharply contrasted with his earlier statement that "Iran wants to reach an agreement." The White House then announced that Trump would end his G7 visit early and return to Washington, further exacerbating market unease.

• The Euro Stoxx 50 index futures fell by 0.7%.
• The Japanese Topix index rose by 0.3%. The Seoul Composite Index fell by 0.7%, erasing an earlier gain of up to 1.8%.
• The US Dollar Spot Index changed little; the euro against the dollar was nearly unchanged at 1.1563 USD.
• The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell by 1 basis point to 4.44%.
• The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose by 3 basis points to 1.475%.
• West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 0.8% to $70.33 per barrel.
• Spot gold rose by 0.3% to $3,394.44 per ounce.
• Bitcoin fell by 1.3% to $107,373.29.

Limited Results from the G7 Summit, Energy Supply Concerns Resurface

Israel and Iran have exchanged fire for the fourth consecutive day, and the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East has reignited concerns about global energy supply. Middle Eastern oil-producing countries transport about one-fifth of the world's oil production daily through the Strait of Hormuz. If Tehran attempts to disrupt this shipping route, oil prices could soar. A team of economists at Morgan Stanley warned in a report on Monday:

"Oil prices have surged due to supply concerns, but given that Asia's oil burden has decreased compared to before and inflation is moderate, the impact on Asia should be manageable. However, if oil prices rise further above $85 and the dollar continues to strengthen, it could lead to a delay in interest rate cuts."

Billy Leung, a senior investment strategist at Global X ETFs, stated:

"The stock market has shown resilience to recent headlines regarding the Middle East situation, indicating that the market understands that similar past events are usually controllable and short-lived. Apart from gold, there is no consistency in the performance of other asset classes following such events."

Market focus will shift to Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision, as policymakers have signaled an extension of unchanged interest rates. Investors are looking forward to Powell providing clues about the timing and conditions under which the central bank will ultimately take action.

David Doyle of Macquarie Group analyzed:

"Powell may describe the recent inflation developments as encouraging, but will also downplay their relevance due to uncertainties such as tariffs, fiscal policy, and the recent surge in oil prices caused by geopolitical developments. Overall, after the communication, the market pricing for 2025 faces hawkish risks."

As of the time of publication, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 0.8% to $70.33 per barrel.

After returning to the $2 trillion market cap threshold, South Korean stocks plummet from high levels

Earlier today, the market capitalization of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (Kospi) broke through the $2 trillion mark again, with a cumulative increase of 23% this year, making it the best-performing stock index in Asia.

A significant catalyst for market optimism comes from changes at the political level. Following Lee Jae-myung's election as president earlier this month, investor confidence in South Korea's efforts to enhance corporate valuations has significantly increased.

In addition, the revival of the AI investment theme has become another key factor driving the stock market's rise. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the two largest companies in South Korea, directly benefit from the resurgence of the global AI boom as leading chip manufacturers.

However, by midday, South Korean stocks plummeted from high levels, with the Korea Composite Stock Price Index falling 0.7%, erasing an earlier gain of up to 1.8%.