Goldman Sachs: The dollar's "downward trend is hard to stop," with the pound targeting 1.44 against the dollar in 12 months

Zhitong
2025.06.16 01:30
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Last week, the British pound against the US dollar reached a 39-month high above 1.3600, and then fell back to around 1.3500 due to weaker-than-expected UK employment data. Goldman Sachs expects the US dollar to continue to weaken in global markets, and this trend still has considerable room for continuation. The bank raised its 6-month target for the GBP/USD from 1.35 to 1.40, and its 12-month target from 1.39 to 1.44. Regarding the US economy, Goldman Sachs pointed out that although the monthly non-farm payroll data slightly exceeded expectations, it still confirms the potential slowdown trend of the economy. Given that the performance of the US economy is no longer unique, the bank believes that the US dollar will continue to be under pressure in the medium term. So far this year, the overall performance of the US stock market has been flat, while European stock markets have seen significant gains. When accounting for currency losses, the gap between the two is even more pronounced. Goldman Sachs continues to emphasize the rationale for reducing dollar assets, especially considering that the attractiveness of the US market to foreign investors is declining. The market will closely monitor the latest developments in tariff policies and the upcoming budget bill debate in the Senate. The bank warns that even if signals of capital control are released, it will further undermine investors' confidence in dollar assets

According to Zhitong Finance APP, last week the British pound against the US dollar reached a 39-month high above 1.3600, and then fell back to around 1.3500 due to weaker-than-expected UK employment data. Goldman Sachs expects the US dollar to continue to weaken in the global market, and this trend still has considerable room for continuation. The bank raised its 6-month target for the GBP/USD from 1.35 to 1.40, and its 12-month target from 1.39 to 1.44. Regarding the US economy, Goldman Sachs pointed out that although the monthly non-farm payroll data slightly exceeded expectations, it still confirms the potential slowdown trend of the economy. Coupled with the fact that the performance of the US economy is no longer unique, the bank believes that the US dollar will continue to be under pressure in the medium term.

So far this year, the overall performance of the US stock market has been flat, while European stock markets have seen significant gains. When accounting for exchange rate losses, the gap between the two is even more pronounced. Goldman Sachs continues to emphasize the rationale for reducing dollar assets, especially given that the attractiveness of the US market to overseas investors is declining.

The market will closely monitor the latest developments in tariff policies and the upcoming budget bill debate in the Senate. The bank warns that even if signals of capital control are released, it will further undermine investors' confidence in dollar assets

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