This week's heavy schedule: Super Central Bank Week, China's May economic data, Lujiazui Forum, G7 Summit

Overview of Major Financial Events from June 16 to June 22, all in Beijing Time:

This week’s focus: China releases May economic data, central banks of multiple countries including the US, Japan, and the UK announce the latest interest rate decisions, the 2025 Lujiazui Forum opens, and the 51st G7 Summit is held.

In addition, the second China-Central Asia Summit will be held, China’s June LPR quote will be released, a US court rules on the visa restrictions for international students at Harvard, the US announces May retail sales growth, the European Central Bank releases its economic bulletin, and Tesla's Robotaxi service is set for trial operation.

China’s May Economic Data and June LPR Quote

On Monday (June 16), China will release a series of economic data including the May retail sales growth.

April economic data showed that “export grabbing” led to a relatively strong supply side, while demand showed a slight decline, and the real estate market experienced a slight downturn.

China International Capital Corporation (CICC) believes that the marginal changes in May are mainly due to the easing of tariff frictions, which is conducive to the marginal recovery of China’s exports to the US and somewhat alleviates the suppression of foreign trade uncertainties on corporate production and investment. It is expected that various economic indicators in May will remain stable compared to April, with retail sales, investment, and industrial added value growth rates likely to be roughly in line with previous values.

On Friday (June 20), the People’s Bank of China will announce the June LPR quote.

Last month, both the 5-year and 1-year LPR quotes were lowered by 10 basis points, marking the “first drop of the year.”

At the same time, major state-owned banks generally lowered deposit rates across various types and terms, with the 1-year and 5-year fixed deposit rates reduced by 15 and 25 basis points, respectively, with the reductions exceeding those of the same-term LPR.

Minsheng Securities analysis believes that externally, the exchange rate constraints have been broken. Internally, in addition to balancing interest margins, the more significant reduction in deposit rates also reserves space for further interest rate cuts to respond to “economic turbulence” under tariff shocks.

Federal Reserve June Decision, Focus on Economic Forecasts and Dot Plot

On Thursday (June 19), the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision.

Currently, the futures market bets that the probability of the Federal Reserve “holding steady” this time is as high as 99%. Investors will closely watch what signals regarding future interest rate cut paths will be released from the updated economic forecasts and the dot plot for this quarter.

According to reports, Federal Reserve officials are closely monitoring consumer inflation expectations to assess whether the tariff policies of the Trump administration could lead to sustained inflation. Meanwhile, May's non-farm payroll data shows potential weakness in the job market, and concerns about recession add uncertainty to the prospects of interest rate cuts.

Citi expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75 basis points this year, with cuts of 25 basis points each in September, October, and December.

Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision, Kazuo Ueda's Speech

On Tuesday (June 17), the Bank of Japan will announce its latest interest rate decision.

Since raising rates by 25 basis points in January this year, the Bank of Japan has kept the policy rate unchanged at 0.5% for two consecutive meetings. The market expects that the probability of the bank continuing to pause rate hikes this month is over 50%.

Investors will pay attention to how policymakers will implement their bond purchase program. Media surveys show that about two-thirds of respondents expect the pace of bond purchases to slow down.

The latest data shows that Japan's first-quarter GDP did not shrink by 0.2% as initially estimated, but instead achieved zero growth, with the annualized contraction revised from 0.7% to 0.2%, reinforcing market expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan.

At the same time, Japan's prices remain high, especially rice prices, which have doubled over the past year, further increasing pressure on the central bank to raise rates.

At the May monetary policy meeting, the bank lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.1% to 0.5%, highlighting the negative impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan's export-dependent economy. However, the bank also stated that if the economic outlook is realized, they will continue to raise borrowing costs.

On Friday (June 20), the Bank of Japan will also release the minutes of the April monetary policy meeting and the April CPI data, and Kazuo Ueda will give another public speech.

2025 Lujiazui Forum Kicks Off, Major Financial Policies to be Announced

On Wednesday (June 18), the 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai, running until June 19.

This year's forum theme is "Financial Opening and Cooperation and High-Quality Development in the Changing Global Economic Landscape," featuring 8 plenary sessions and 3 special events focusing on market concerns such as reinsurance market construction, fintech, and financial rule of law.

During the forum, leaders from several authoritative institutions, including the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, will attend and deliver speeches, and central financial management departments will announce several major financial policies.

51st G7 Summit Held

According to Xinhua News Agency, the G7 summit will be held from the 15th to the 17th in Canmore, Alberta, Canada, with Canadian Prime Minister Carney, U.S. President Trump, U.K. Prime Minister Starmer, and other G7 leaders in attendanceThis will be Trump's first participation in the G7 summit since the start of his second presidential term.

The Group of Seven (G7) summit is held annually to coordinate global economic policies and address transnational challenges. According to a report by the Global Times cited by Wall Street Journal, on the 12th, Bloomberg reported, citing informed sources, that G7 leaders will not attempt to reach a consensus on a joint communiqué at this summit, indicating significant differences between the U.S. and other G7 members on issues such as the Ukraine conflict and climate change.

Experts believe that tariff issues pose a significant barrier within the G7 that is difficult to overcome. Matthew Goodman, director of the Geoeconomic Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, stated that this G7 summit will struggle to formulate collective action to resolve the tariff disputes with the U.S. Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that the tariff issue will be the "biggest unknown factor" at this summit, with the U.S. becoming a source of significant instability for the global economy.

Regarding how to address the Ukraine issue, there are also serious divisions within the G7. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will attend this G7 summit and has proposed meeting with Trump during the conference to urge the U.S. to increase sanctions against Russia.

The Ukrainian National News Agency published an article on the 13th stating that it is unlikely that this G7 summit will achieve significant consensus and substantive progress on issues related to Ukraine. Some analysts believe that the rifts within the G7 are widening, and trust in the U.S. among allied countries is continuously declining. Bergmann noted that European allies are skeptical about the U.S. commitment and the sustainability of U.S.-European relations.

Central Asia Summit

The second China-Central Asia Leaders' Summit will be held on June 17 in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, with heads of state from China and Central Asian countries in attendance.

According to Xinhua News Agency, during the sixth meeting of foreign ministers from China and Central Asia on April 26, the foreign ministers of Central Asian countries expressed that they would deepen cooperation in priority areas such as trade facilitation, industrial investment, connectivity, green minerals, agricultural modernization, and facilitation of personnel exchanges.

CITIC Securities stated that during the first Central Asia summit in 2023, the cooperation results were remarkable, focusing mainly on infrastructure, energy, and agriculture in the economic and trade fields, with significant market catalysis observed, as the Xinjiang Index, central state-owned enterprise index, and international engineering index all performed actively.

Looking ahead to this summit, CITIC Securities believes that progress in cooperation in areas such as transportation infrastructure (China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway and highway), energy minerals (wind, photovoltaic, green minerals), digital economy, and modern agriculture is worth looking forward to.

Other Important Data, Meetings, and Events

• On Tuesday (June 17), the U.S. will release the retail sales growth rate for May.

Bloomberg economists' median forecast indicates that U.S. retail sales in May will show zero growth month-on-month, slowing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; excluding the impact of auto sales, the month-on-month growth rate of retail sales is expected to accelerate by 0.2 percentage points to 0.3% compared to the previous monthThis means that the trend of weak consumer spending will continue. In order to stock up on goods before Trump's tariff policy takes effect, consumers seem to have "overdrawn" their purchasing power.

• On Friday (June 20), the European Central Bank will release its economic bulletin.

The ECB will publish key indicators such as macroeconomic outlook forecasts for the Eurozone and inflation rate forecasts in the bulletin, and will assess and analyze economic events and the monetary policy path.

• U.S. judge blocks Harvard's international student visa restrictions until June 16

According to Xinhua News Agency, on June 5 local time, a U.S. judge issued a temporary restraining order to prevent the Trump administration from enforcing the announcement of visa restrictions for international students at Harvard University issued on June 4.

The temporary restraining order requires the restoration of the rights of international students to enter the U.S. to study at Harvard before a court hearing and ruling on June 16.

On the evening of June 6, the U.S. State Department notified embassies and consulates around the world to resume processing visas for international students preparing to study at Harvard University.

• Tesla's Robotaxi service is tentatively scheduled for trial operation in Austin on Sunday (June 22)

Wall Street Insight previously mentioned that Musk revealed on the X platform that Tesla's autonomous Robotaxi service is tentatively scheduled for trial operation on June 22 in Austin, Texas, where he will personally attend the launch ceremony.

It is reported that this trial operation will be very small in scale, involving only 10 to 20 Robotaxis, with the model locked as Model Y, equipped with the company's new "unsupervised version" of FSD (Full Self-Driving) technology.

The first autonomous delivery trip from the Tesla factory to customers' homes (i.e., Self-Delivery) is scheduled for June 28, which is also Musk's birthday.

• On Wednesday (June 18), the 2025 Data Intelligence Conference will be held in Beijing, releasing the "Intelligent Agent Industry Map," until June 19.

According to reports, the conference will release multiple standards in the field of intelligent applications, aiming to enhance the efficiency of intelligent agent development, improve the stability of intelligent agent operations, optimize multi-agent collaboration capabilities, and promote the close coupling of intelligent agent systems with business scenarios through standardized processes, automated toolchains, and cross-functional collaboration mechanisms.

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