Morning news | As Yi Yi continues to impact global stock markets over the weekend, the Federal Reserve's June interest rate decision is approaching

From June 16 to June 22, key financial events overview, all times are in Beijing time:

This week focuses on: China releasing May economic data, central banks of multiple countries including the US, Japan, and the UK announcing the latest interest rate decisions, the opening of the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, and the second China-Central Asia Summit.

In addition, China's June LPR quotation will be released, a US court ruling on Harvard's international student visa restrictions, the US announcing May retail sales growth, the European Central Bank releasing its economic bulletin, and Tesla's Robotaxi service is set for trial operation.

China's May Economic Data, June LPR Quotation

On Monday (June 16), China will release a series of economic data including May's retail sales growth.

April's economic data showed that "export grabbing" led to a stronger supply side, while demand showed a slight decline, and the real estate market experienced a slight downturn.

CICC believes that the marginal changes in May are mainly due to the easing of tariff frictions, which is conducive to the marginal recovery of China's exports to the US and somewhat alleviates the suppression of foreign trade uncertainties on corporate production and investment. It is expected that various economic indicators in May will remain stable compared to April, with retail sales, investment, and industrial added value growth rates likely to be roughly in line with previous values.

On Friday (June 20), the People's Bank of China will announce the June LPR quotation.

Last month, both the 5-year and 1-year LPR quotations were lowered by 10 basis points, marking the "first decline of the year."

At the same time, major state-owned banks generally lowered deposit rates across various types and terms, with the 1-year and 5-year fixed deposit rates reduced by 15 and 25 basis points, respectively, with the decline exceeding that of the same-term LPR.

Minsheng Securities analysis believes that externally, the exchange rate constraints have been broken. Internally, in addition to balancing interest rate spreads, the larger reduction in deposit rates also reserves space for further interest rate cuts to respond to "economic turbulence" under tariff shocks.

Federal Reserve's June Decision, Focus on Economic Forecasts and Dot Plot

On Thursday (June 19), the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision.

Currently, the futures market bets that the probability of the Federal Reserve "holding steady" this time is as high as 99%. Investors will closely watch what signals regarding future interest rate cut paths will be released from the updated economic forecasts and the dot plot this quarter.


According to reports, Federal Reserve officials are closely monitoring consumer inflation expectations to assess whether the tariff policies of the Trump administration may lead to sustained inflation. Meanwhile, the May non-farm payroll data shows potential weakness in the labor market, and concerns about recession persist, adding uncertainty to the prospects of interest rate cuts.

Citi expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75 basis points this year, with cuts of 25 basis points each in September, October, and December.

Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision, Kazuo Ueda's Speech

On Tuesday (June 17), the Bank of Japan will announce its latest interest rate decision.

Since raising rates by 25 basis points in January this year, the Bank of Japan has kept the policy interest rate unchanged at 0.5% for two consecutive meetings. The market expects that the probability of the bank continuing to pause rate hikes this month is over 50%.

Investors will pay attention to how policymakers will implement their bond purchase program. Media surveys show that about two-thirds of respondents expect the pace of bond purchase reduction to slow down.

The latest data shows that Japan's first-quarter GDP seasonally adjusted final value did not shrink by 0.2% as initially estimated, but instead achieved zero growth, with the annualized contraction revised from 0.7% to 0.2%, reinforcing market expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan.

At the same time, Japan is facing high prices, especially rice prices, which have doubled in the past year, further putting pressure on the central bank to raise rates.

In the May monetary policy meeting, the bank lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.1% to 0.5%, highlighting the negative impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan's export-dependent economy. However, the bank also stated that if the economic outlook is realized, they will continue to raise borrowing costs.

On Friday (June 20), the Bank of Japan will also release the minutes of the April monetary policy meeting and the April CPI data, and Kazuo Ueda will give another public speech.

2025 Lujiazui Forum Kicks Off, Major Financial Policies to be Announced

On Wednesday (June 18), the 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai, running until June 19.

The theme of this forum is "Financial Opening and Cooperation and High-Quality Development in the Changing Global Economic Landscape," featuring 8 plenary sessions and 3 special events focusing on market concerns such as reinsurance market construction, fintech, and financial rule of law.

During the forum, leaders from several authoritative institutions, including the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, will attend and deliver speeches, and central financial management departments will announce several major financial policies.

Central Asia Summit Held

The second China-Central Asia Leaders' Summit will be held on June 17 in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, with heads of state from China and Central Asian countries in attendance.

According to Xinhua News Agency, during the sixth meeting of China-Central Asia foreign ministers on April 26, foreign ministers from Central Asian countries expressed that they would deepen cooperation in priority areas such as trade facilitation, industrial investment, connectivity, green minerals, agricultural modernization, and facilitation of personnel exchangesCITIC Securities stated that during the first Central Asia Summit in 2023, the cooperation results among all parties were remarkable, with the economic and trade sectors mainly focusing on infrastructure, energy, and agriculture. There were also significant catalysts at the market level, with the Xinjiang Index, the central state-owned enterprise index, and the international engineering index all performing actively.

Looking ahead to this summit, CITIC Securities believes that cooperation progress in areas such as transportation infrastructure (China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway and highway), energy minerals (wind power, photovoltaics, green minerals), digital economy, and modern agriculture is worth looking forward to.

Other Important Data, Meetings, and Events

• On Tuesday (June 17), the U.S. will release the retail sales growth rate for May.

Bloomberg economists' median forecast indicates that U.S. retail sales in May will show zero growth month-on-month, slowing down by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month; excluding the impact of automobile sales, the month-on-month growth rate of retail sales is expected to accelerate by 0.2 percentage points to 0.3%.

This suggests that the trend of weak consumer spending will continue, as consumers seem to have "overdrawn" their purchasing power to stock up on goods before the implementation of Trump's tariff policy.

• On Friday (June 20), the European Central Bank will release its economic bulletin.

The ECB will publish key indicators such as macroeconomic outlook forecasts for the Eurozone and inflation rate forecasts in the bulletin, and will assess and analyze economic events and monetary policy paths.

• U.S. judge blocks Harvard's international student visa restrictions until June 16.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on June 5 local time, a U.S. judge issued a temporary restraining order to block the Trump administration from enforcing the announcement made on June 4 regarding visa restrictions for international students at Harvard University.

The temporary restraining order requires the restoration of the rights of international students to enter the U.S. to study at Harvard University before a court hearing and ruling on June 16.

On the evening of June 6, the U.S. State Department notified embassies and consulates worldwide to resume visa processing for international students preparing to study at Harvard University.

• Tesla's Robotaxi service is tentatively scheduled for trial operation in Austin on Sunday (June 22).

Wall Street Journal previously mentioned that Musk revealed on the X platform that Tesla's autonomous Robotaxi service is tentatively scheduled for trial operation on June 22 in Austin, Texas, where he will personally attend the launch ceremony.

It is reported that this trial operation will be very small in scale, involving only 10 to 20 Robotaxis, with the model locked to Model Y, equipped with the company's new "unsupervised" FSD (Full Self-Driving) technology.

The first autonomous delivery trip from the Tesla factory to a customer's home (i.e., Self-Delivery) is scheduled for June 28, which is also Musk's birthday.

• On Wednesday (June 18), the 2025 Data Intelligence Conference will be held in Beijing, releasing the "Intelligent Agent Industry Map," until June 19.

According to reports, the conference will release multiple standards in the field of intelligent applications, aiming to enhance the efficiency of intelligent agent development, improve the stability of intelligent agent operations, optimize multi-agent collaboration capabilities, and promote the close coupling of intelligent agent systems with business scenarios through standardized processes, automated toolchains, and cross-functional collaboration mechanismsWeekly Major Events Subscription:

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