Breakfast FM-Radio | June 13, 2025

Market Overview

US inflation slows, US Treasury auction remains robust, US stocks and bonds rise together, supported by technology stocks, with the S&P rebounding to a nearly three-month high. Oracle surged 13% after releasing its earnings report, while Boeing fell nearly 5%; Chime soared 37% on its first day of trading. The pan-European stock index fell for four consecutive days, but the UK stock index rose for three consecutive days, setting a new historical high.

After the US PPI was released, US Treasury prices rose further, with US Treasury yields accelerating downward to a one-week low; the US dollar index fell by 1%, hitting a new low in over three years, while the euro rose over 1% to a new high in over three years. The renminbi also strengthened as the dollar weakened, with onshore renminbi reaching a new high in over seven months, and offshore renminbi briefly rising nearly 300 points, breaking through 7.17.

During the Asian session, A-shares fluctuated and consolidated, with new consumption concepts exploding, the Hang Seng Index falling over 1%, while pharmaceutical stocks rose against the trend, and government bonds and commodities mostly declined.

Key News

Trump intensifies pressure on Powell: "Idiot"! A two-percentage-point rate cut could save $600 billion annually, may have to "force" the Fed to act.

Trump overturned California's electric vehicle mandate, stating Musk is a friend, and consulted him before taking action.

The US announced an increase in tariffs on steel appliances starting from the 23rd, including washing machines and refrigerators.

After the CPI, US PPI inflation also cooled, with May's core PPI showing a mild month-on-month increase of 0.1%, below expectations, marking the slowest growth in nearly a year, and expectations for two rate cuts by the Fed this year have risen; the number of first-time unemployment claims in the US last week was slightly higher than expected, with continuing claims soaring to the highest level since the end of 2021.

This week's most challenging US Treasury auction passed the test, with 30-year US Treasuries remaining robust and strong overseas demand.

Boeing's 787 aircraft experienced its first accident, with an explosion occurring at an Indian airport less than one minute after takeoff, resulting in over 290 fatalities, including 241 on board, with only one survivor. The aircraft's black box has been found, and preliminary data indicates some abnormalities in the landing gear system; Boeing's stock price fell nearly 6% at one point.

Trump stated that Israel may launch an attack on Iran, but he would not call it an "imminent attack."

AMD released a new AI chip, claiming its inference testing performance exceeds Nvidia by 1.3 times, with the CEO predicting that the AI chip market will exceed $500 billion by 2028, with even faster growth in inference chips.

Reports indicate that XPeng is in talks to supply AI chips to other car manufacturers, with Volkswagen potentially becoming the first customer.

Market Closing Report

US and European stock markets: The Dow rose 0.24%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.35%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.24%. The European STOXX 600 index fell 0.33% A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.26%.

Bond Market: By the end of the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury was about 4.36%, down about 6 basis points during the day, while the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury was about 3.91%, down about 4 basis points during the day.

Commodities: WTI July crude oil futures fell by 0.16%. Brent August crude oil futures fell by 0.59%. COMEX August gold futures closed up by 1.76%. COMEX July silver futures closed up by 0.09%. COMEX July copper futures closed up by 0.44%.

News Details

Global Highlights

Trump overturns California's electric vehicle mandate, says Musk is a friend, consulted him before taking action. Trump stated that he likes Tesla and other electric vehicle companies; regarding the repeal of California's electric vehicle support policy, Musk told him that as long as actions are applied equally, there would be no objections. The Trump administration took over three months to overturn the California mandate approved during Biden's term, which has been adopted by 11 other states that account for one-third of the U.S. automotive market. California stated last month that it would file a lawsuit as soon as Trump signed the resolution.

Trump increases pressure on Powell: Idiot! Cut interest rates by two percentage points, and it could save $600 billion annually. Trump stated that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by two percentage points, it could save $600 billion annually. Currently, $600 billion is being spent annually just because an idiot is sitting here saying, "I don't see enough reason to cut rates." He will not dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. If inflation rises, he does not oppose the Fed raising rates, but since inflation is currently declining, he may have to "force" the Fed to act.

The U.S. announces tariffs on steel appliances starting June 23, including washing machines and refrigerators. The U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it will impose tariffs on various steel household appliances starting June 23, including dishwashers, washing machines, and refrigerators, among other "steel derivative products."

Bassett first mentioned that the "July 9 tariff deadline" could be postponed, specifically naming "Europe," and Democratic lawmakers bluntly stated "the taste of TACO" U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin clearly stated in response to questions from Democratic lawmakers: "For countries that are negotiating in good faith — or trade groups like the EU — we are very likely to extend the deadline to continue good faith negotiations. But if someone is not negotiating, then we will not extend." This is the first time the Trump administration has publicly acknowledged the flexibility of its tariff timeline. Trump himself also expressed willingness to extend the July 8 deadline on Wednesday but deemed it "not very necessary."

Key details of the U.S.-UK negotiations on exchanging cars for agriculture will be revealed soon. The U.S. and the UK are about to sign a key part of a tariff trade agreement that will reduce the tariff on UK car exports to the U.S. from 27.5% to 10%, while also reducing tariffs on steel and aluminum to zero. The UK will grant the U.S. a zero-tariff quota of 13,000 tons of beef and 1.4 billion liters of ethanol. The U.S. Secretary of Commerce stated that the agreement will take effect "in the coming days."

U.S. May PPI and core PPI both rose moderately by 0.1% month-on-month, lower than expected, with core PPI growth hitting a nearly one-year low, expectations for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year have increased. After CPI, PPI inflation has also cooled down. The overall increase in U.S. PPI in May remained moderate, and tariffs have not yet put higher price pressure on consumers and businesses. However, U.S. corporate profit margins continue to be under pressure, indicating that companies are absorbing tariff costs themselves. After the data was released, traders fully digested the scenario of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

The number of first-time unemployment claims in the U.S. last week was slightly higher than expected, continuing claims surged to the highest level since the end of 2021.

Boeing adds to its troubled history, the first accident involving the 787 aircraft occurred, resulting in over 290 fatalities, with stock prices dropping nearly 6% at one point. On the 12th, an Air India Boeing 787-8 aircraft crashed near an airport in India, with less than one minute from takeoff to explosion. Air India reported 241 people on board were killed, with only one survivor, and police stated that the crash also resulted in casualties on the ground. The Chinese Embassy in India confirmed that there were no Chinese nationals on the ill-fated aircraft. This is the first total loss accident involving the Boeing 787 model. Media reports indicated that the pilot had sent out a distress signal before the crash. The aircraft's black box has been found, and preliminary data shows some abnormal landing gear systems, with experts stating that the aircraft was in a stall condition at takeoff. Technical analysis suggests that the accident may be related to pilot error. Boeing's stock price recorded its largest decline in two months Trump says Israel may launch an attack on Iran. U.S. President Trump stated that an attack by Israel on Iran "is very likely to happen," but he would not call it a "imminent attack."

Morgan Stanley details three highlights of NVIDIA's GTC: European investment catching up, quantum commercialization, and industrial AI accelerating. Morgan Stanley maintains an overweight rating on NVIDIA with a target price of $170, expecting its European market revenue to grow eightfold or more from 2024 to 2026. Additionally, quantum computing and industrial/physical AI applications provide new growth momentum. Furthermore, Morgan Stanley emphasized the significant acceleration of inference workloads, predicting that the top four clients will deploy 3.6 million Blackwell chips by 2025.

AMD releases new AI chips, CEO expects AI chip market to exceed $500 billion by 2028, with inference chip growth even faster. Previously, CEO Lisa Su repeatedly stated that the AI chip market would reach $500 billion by 2028. This Thursday, she predicted it would exceed $500 billion, claiming that the compound annual growth rate in the AI accelerator field exceeds 60%. She also mentioned that AMD acquired 25 companies related to its AI plans in the past year. AMD's new MI350 series products, MI350X and MI355X, claim to outperform NVIDIA's competing products by 1.3 times in inference tests and lead by 1.13 times in specific training workloads.

Report: XPeng is negotiating to supply AI chips to other automakers, with Volkswagen possibly being the first customer. XPeng stated that the effective computing power of its Turing AI chip is three times that of the Orin-X autonomous driving chip, which is a product of the American tech giant NVIDIA. XPeng Motors announced that it is negotiating to supply AI chips to other automakers.

Investment mogul Bill Gurley: The AI wave interrupted the market correction that should have occurred, and China's intense competitive environment can instead shape stronger companies. Bill stated that the AI wave interrupted the market correction and sparked a new round of investment enthusiasm. Currently, most AI companies' revenues come from computing power resale, and economic benefits ultimately need to be addressed. If China's intense competition leads to the emergence of four well-funded companies' open-source products, it would be incredibly powerful, with models training each other and everyone able to use them, resulting in a plethora of choices and experiments, which is something that won't happen in the U.S

Domestic Macro

Eddie Li: China is willing to strengthen cooperation with the European Central Bank in areas such as international monetary system reform. Eddie Li stated that there is great potential for cooperation between China and Europe in many areas, and China is willing to strengthen market connectivity and industrial collaboration with Europe to add more momentum to their respective developments. China is willing to enhance cooperation with the European Central Bank in areas such as international monetary system reform.

Xinhua Commentary: Resolving economic and trade differences through equal dialogue and mutually beneficial cooperation - A review of the first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism. According to Xinhua News Agency, China is sincere and principled in its economic and trade consultations. It hopes that the U.S. side can cherish the hard-won dialogue momentum and show sufficient sincerity and action to continue moving towards China. At present, the urgent task is to lift the negative measures imposed on China to clear obstacles for the healthy development of economic and trade cooperation between the two countries.

AH premium hits a five-year low, some popular stocks have shown "inversion". The premium of Chinese A-shares over H-shares has narrowed to 27%, hitting a five-year low, with popular stocks like BYD and CATL rarely showing an "inversion" of A-shares over H-shares. Analysts believe this unusual price relationship signals potential undervaluation of A-shares, and some investors may rush to buy the cheaper A-shares. Since the beginning of this year, influenced by factors such as valuation advantages, marginal easing of overseas liquidity, and continuous inflow of southbound funds, Hong Kong stocks have generally outperformed A-shares, and the Hang Seng AH premium index has entered a new downward phase.

Domestic Companies

Is the price war reaching Europe? BYD's "Dolphin Surf" officially lands in the UK market, priced at only £18,650. BYD launched its small electric vehicle "Dolphin Surf" in the UK for £18,650 (approximately 180,000 yuan), while its Chinese version is priced at less than £6,000. In the first four months of this year, the market share of Chinese brands in the UK and European markets rapidly increased from 2.9% to 4.8%, with nearly 30% of Chinese models exported to Europe being absorbed by the UK. In response to price cuts by car manufacturers, Western car companies have begun to adopt lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs. However, analysts believe that Chinese brands still have attractiveness due to their technological advantages, such as BYD's plan to introduce ultra-fast charging technology to Europe within 12 months.

From shortages and counterfeit goods to competition, this is Pop Mart's "top influencer anxiety". Goldman Sachs believes that the European trendy toy market is growing rapidly, and Pop Mart is rising with the trend, with Labubu becoming the hottest IP, primarily targeting female consumers aged 15 to 25. However, supply shortages have become its biggest challenge, potentially leading to the proliferation of counterfeit goods and allowing competitors to take advantage. Experts remind that trendy toys are a supply-driven market, and continuous "new releases" and content ecosystem construction are key

• Labubu's counterfeit industry chain: secret global shipping, no one can visit the factory. Counterfeit Labubu ranges from poorly made "obviously fake" replicas to nearly "one-to-one" high-quality imitations, sold domestically and internationally through Yiwu, Shenzhen Huaqiangbei, e-commerce live streaming, and cross-border channels, even utilizing genuine product scarcity marketing strategies and high premium market demand, specifically targeting overseas markets. A counterfeit agent stated: "The demand is too great, and we are scheduling orders with factories every day."

Overseas Macro

This week's most challenging U.S. Treasury auction passes the test, 30-year U.S. Treasuries remain robust, strong overseas demand. After the results of the 30-year U.S. Treasury auction were released, the market reacted positively, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approaching its intraday low. However, analysts pointed out that the U.S. still faces significant pressure from a large supply of long-term government bonds—due to the "big and beautiful" spending plan promoted by Trump that still requires massive financing support.

Oak Tree Capital's Marks: Trump likes "unpredictability," current U.S. stocks are not cheap but not in a bubble. Marks warned that Trump "will not explain himself, and this may be intentional." For investors, Marks emphasized that global asset prices are at or near historical highs, but the current market has not yet shown signs of "psychological excess" characteristic of a bubble. In other words, while the market is expensive, it may not have entered a phase of complete irrational exuberance.

UK economy experiences the most severe contraction in 18 months, interest rate cut expectations soar. The UK's GDP shrank by 0.3% month-on-month in April, far below the expected -0.1%. Following the data release, traders quickly raised their expectations for the Bank of England's interest rate cut this year to 52 basis points. However, analysts pointed out that since the UK's inflation rate remains above the Bank of England's 2% target, the bank may take a more cautious stance on its interest rate path.

Solana ETF leads the way, more digital currency ETFs expected to be approved by the U.S. SEC next month? The SEC has requested potential Solana ETF issuers to submit revised S-1 forms within the next week, a move seen as a significant acceleration of the approval process. This could shorten the approval timeline for the Solana ETF to 3-5 weeks. Some analysts suggest that the SEC may begin approving some cryptocurrency-related ETFs as early as next month, marking the start of the "token ETF summer."

Platinum surges? Goldman Sachs is not optimistic! Goldman Sachs believes that speculation and ETF demand are the main forces driving platinum to $1,280 per ounce, rather than fundamental improvements The price sensitivity of Chinese buyers, the structural decline in demand in the automotive industry, and the stable growth of supply from South Africa are the three major factors that will lead to platinum prices returning to their original price range.

With the joint efforts of the U.S. and Germany, the World Bank will lift the "nuclear financing ban" that has lasted for decades. According to reports, World Bank President Ajay Banga announced that the institution will re-enter the nuclear energy sector, supporting efforts to extend the lifespan of existing reactors and assisting in grid upgrades and related infrastructure construction. Analysts point out that the World Bank's decision is significant for the nuclear power industry, which has sharply declined since the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011.

Overseas Companies

NVIDIA and Samsung team up to invest, robot unicorn Skild AI reaches a valuation of $4.5 billion. The Series B financing for robot unicorn Skild AI was led by SoftBank with an investment of $100 million, NVIDIA invested $25 million, and Samsung contributed $10 million. NVIDIA is laying out the "physical AI" concept, positioning robots as a future revenue growth engine; Samsung is adopting a defensive strategy, keeping pace with other South Korean conglomerates. The robotics sector is experiencing a capital frenzy, with tech giants vying for dominance in the next trillion-dollar market.

Today's News Preview

Germany and France's May CPI.

U.S. June University of Michigan consumer confidence and inflation expectations.

Japan's trade negotiation representative Akizawa Ryozo is visiting the U.S. for the sixth round of tariff negotiations.