Microsoft's Golden Cross Ignites Breakout Rally - But Is A Cooldown Coming?
Microsoft Corp's stock has achieved a Golden Cross, with its 50-day SMA surpassing the 200-day SMA, indicating a bullish trend. The stock reached a record high of $478.78, reflecting a 23% gain over three months. Despite strong technical signals, the RSI suggests overbought conditions, and MACD shows signs of softening momentum. Strong fundamentals, including a recent earnings surge and a quarterly dividend announcement, support the stock's performance. Analysts project a target of $517.93, but a short-term dip may occur as the market digests recent gains.
Microsoft Corp MSFT just pulled off a classic chartist's dream – the Golden Cross – and the bulls are charging. On June 11, the stock's 50-day simple moving average (SMA) climbed above its 200-day SMA, signaling a long-term bullish trend.
The very next day, Microsoft stock punched through resistance to hit a record high of $478.78, building on a three-month gain of 23% and crushing the S&P 500's modest advance in the same period.
Chart created using Benzinga Pro
Momentum Overload: Technicals Flash Bullish – With A Caveat
Microsoft stock price is now well above its five, 20 and 50-day exponential moving averages, a strongly bullish signal. The current share price of $477.32 also trades above its eight-day SMA of $469.81, 20-day SMA of $461.98 and 50-day SMA of $423.84 – each flashing continued upside potential.
Even the long-term 200-day SMA at $419.25 is far behind, reinforcing that Microsoft's momentum hasn't just taken off – it's soaring.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is at 12.80, with a recent bullish crossover. However, momentum may be softening a touch—MACD histogram bars have ticked lower for three consecutive sessions. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at an overheated 76.77, suggesting overbought territory.
Read Also: ChatGPT Kept ‘Begging To Restart’ Before Being Beaten By 1979 Atari 2600 In A ‘Beginner Level’ Chess Showdown
AI Muscle Keeps Fundamentals Strong
Microsoft's technical strength is being matched step by step by its fundamentals. Third-quarter earnings, reported on April 30, delivered a 16.5% post-earnings surge, with revenue and earnings per share comfortably beating expectations. The Intelligent Cloud segment continues to fire on all cylinders, powered by Azure's AI capabilities and tight integration with OpenAI's models.
Enterprise adoption of Copilot, growth in Microsoft 365, and strong performance from LinkedIn are reinforcing Microsoft’s sticky revenue streams. A quarterly dividend of $0.83 per share was announced on June 10, underscoring the company's financial confidence.
Add to that Microsoft's Pentagon-linked AI copilot development and a dominant market cap position alongside Apple Inc AAPL and Nvidia Corp NVDA, and it's no wonder analysts have an average target as high as $517.93.
Trend Is Bullish, But Don't Ignore The Heat
A breakout fueled by a Golden Cross, surging institutional buying, and tech leadership in AI and cloud all point to continued strength in Microsoft stock.
But with RSI flashing red and MACD losing a bit of steam, a short-term dip to digest gains wouldn’t be a surprise. In the long term, though, Microsoft seems to still have altitude left on this flight path.
- Trump’s First Six Months: These 4 Markets Crush S&P 500 As Tariffs Boomerang
