U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Decline, Oracle Soars After Earnings

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. On June 12 (Thursday), U.S. stock index futures fell across the board before the market opened. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were down 0.62%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.47%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.46%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index was down 1.29%, the UK FTSE 100 index was down 0.05%, the French CAC 40 index was down 0.74%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was down 0.97%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was down 1.83%, priced at $66.90 per barrel. Brent crude oil was down 1.75%, priced at $68.55 per barrel.

Market News

As concerns over long-term U.S. Treasury demand loom, the 30-year Treasury auction becomes a key test. With ongoing worries about demand for U.S. long-term government bonds, all eyes are on the $22 billion 30-year U.S. Treasury auction scheduled for Thursday at 1 PM Eastern Time, to assess whether the expanding U.S. government fiscal deficit is causing investors to shy away from long-term Treasuries. This long-term Treasury auction coincides with the Trump administration's push for tax reform legislation. The nonpartisan "Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget" estimates that this legislation will increase U.S. government debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade, potentially leading the U.S. government to issue more Treasuries to fund spending. Additionally, market concerns that the trade war initiated by the Trump administration could reignite inflation and weaken global demand for U.S. assets are particularly unfavorable for the longest-term U.S. Treasuries.

U.S. Treasuries face "final reckoning"! "New Bond King" warns: U.S. Treasury collapse will trigger a flight from dollar assets. Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of global asset management giant DoubleLine Capital and known as the "New Bond King," warned that the U.S. debt burden and interest expenses have become "unsustainable," a situation that could lead investors to withdraw from dollar assets. The veteran bond manager stated: "People are now realizing that long-term Treasuries are no longer a qualified safe-haven asset, and the reckoning moment is approaching." In a broad discussion involving the attractiveness of gold, overvalued market valuations, the state of private credit, artificial intelligence, and long-term investment opportunities in India, Gundlach advised investors to consider increasing their allocation to non-dollar assets and revealed that his company is beginning to incorporate foreign exchange into its fund portfolios. Regarding the outlook for U.S. Treasuries, Gundlach believes that as the economy weakens, long-term bond yields may continue to rise If the yield reaches 6%, it may force the Federal Reserve to initiate quantitative easing by purchasing long-term government bonds to suppress borrowing costs.

Bitcoin's new high suggests the S&P will break its peak? Fundstrat warns of a potential "waterfall decline" under extreme short positions. Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, recently pointed out that although the closing price of the S&P 500 index is only 2% away from its historical high of 6,144.15 points, the current market sentiment is showing characteristics of the "least favorable V-shaped rebound"—investors are generally unprepared for the rise, which instead lays the groundwork for a potential "waterfall decline." In his analysis, Lee specifically emphasized two key data points: the total short position in the S&P 500 index currently stands at $7.7 billion, a five-year high; and among the 12 typical "waterfall declines" since 1929, 8 ultimately evolved into "V-shaped bottoms," while only 4 experienced a second bottom. This historical pattern subtly resonates with the current extreme short positioning. Lee noted that cryptocurrencies are becoming an important leading indicator for the stock market, with Ethereum's price having doubled and broken above the 200-day moving average, while Bitcoin set a historical high in May, leading the S&P 500 index by about two months. Historical backtesting shows that when cryptocurrencies experience such strong breakouts, small-cap stocks often strengthen as well. Based on this judgment, Lee recommends focusing on five major directions: oversold stocks, the seven tech giants, Bitcoin, the industrial sector (XLI.US), the financial sector (XLF.US), especially regional banks (IAT.US), and small-cap stocks (IWM.US).

Fitch sounds the alarm for the industry: downgrades global oil and gas outlook to "deteriorating." Fitch Ratings has downgraded its 2025 global oil and gas industry outlook from "neutral" to "deteriorating," citing the impact of U.S. tariffs, OPEC+ production increases, and non-OPEC+ supply growth collectively suppressing demand. The rating agency stated that global oil demand is now expected to grow by about 800,000 barrels per day this year, down from a previous forecast of slightly over 1 million barrels. Meanwhile, the acceleration in supply growth means the market will remain in a state of oversupply. The agency stated: "Although some tariffs have been reduced, the uncertainty surrounding the final tariff rates, as well as the impact of implemented tariffs, will remain key factors in our macroeconomic forecasts, leading to oil consumption growth being lower than previously expected." The agency also lowered its 2025 oil price forecast from $70 per barrel in April to $65 per barrel.

Individual Stock News

Surging demand for computing power, Oracle (ORCL.US) boldly claims cloud infrastructure revenue will soar over 70% in the new fiscal year. Financial report data shows that for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2025 ending May 31, Oracle's overall revenue grew by 11% year-on-year to $15.9 billion, exceeding analysts' average expectation of $15.6 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $1.70, also higher than analysts' average expectation of $1.64 and the $1.63 from the same period last year. The "remaining performance obligations" (RPO)—a key indicator of demand and bookings for tech companies—reached $138 billion, up from $130 billion in the previous quarter A year-on-year increase of 41%. The significant growth in RPO largely indicates that Oracle has successfully secured large-scale long-term customer subscription commitments in the cloud computing business. Revenue from the cloud computing business (including IaaS and SaaS) grew by 27% year-on-year to $6.7 billion, in line with analyst expectations; among them, revenue from the cloud infrastructure business (IaaS) increased by 52% year-on-year to $3 billion, slightly below Wall Street's average expectations. More importantly, Oracle expects that in fiscal year 2026, driven by the exceptionally strong demand for cloud AI computing resources and explosive growth in physical AI computing infrastructure demand, its cloud infrastructure sales will surge by over 70%. This outlook significantly boosted investors' optimism regarding Oracle's highly regarded cloud computing business, leading them to increasingly believe that under the impetus of AI, Oracle's market share in cloud computing will eventually rival that of Amazon AWS and Microsoft Azure. The latest performance and guidance highlight that Oracle, long known for its database software, is accelerating its entry into the ranks of cloud computing service giants, focusing on attracting large customers that are heavily focused on the enormous demand for AI computing resources for training/inference systems. As of the time of writing, Oracle's stock rose over 7% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

An Air India Boeing 787 passenger plane crashes, Boeing (BA.US) stock falls in pre-market. A Boeing 787 passenger plane operated by Air India crashed shortly after taking off from Ahmedabad Airport in India, which could become the most serious incident involving this advanced wide-body aircraft from the American manufacturer. Latest reports indicate that Air India confirmed that the crashed plane had 242 people on board. As of the time of writing, Boeing's stock fell over 7% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

Focusing on diversified AI computing power! OpenAI and Google (GOOGL.US) reach a cloud service agreement. According to reports, OpenAI plans to introduce Google's cloud services to meet its growing computing power needs. It is said that this cooperation agreement has been discussed for several months and was finalized in May this year. The collaboration between OpenAI and Google is surprising, as OpenAI and Google have long been direct competitors in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). This cooperation marks a strategic shift for OpenAI in acquiring computing resources, showing its urgent need for diversified sources of computing power. Analysts believe that for OpenAI, collaborating with Google will provide additional computing support, helping it further advance the training and deployment of AI models. For Google Cloud, partnering with OpenAI will bring new business growth opportunities.

Bank of America (BAC.US) CEO warns that policy uncertainty continues to impact, and investment banking revenue may plummet by 25%. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan stated that due to the policy uncertainty stemming from the Trump administration, the bank's investment banking revenue in the second quarter may decline by about 25%. Moynihan mentioned at an investor conference hosted by Morgan Stanley that the investment banking department's revenue is expected to be around $1.2 billion this quarter, a more significant drop than the $1.5 billion average expected by analysts. Moynihan noted that the continued growth in trading business will partially offset the decline in investment banking revenue As of the three months ending in June, the bank's market operations are expected to achieve a year-on-year growth in the mid-to-high single digits.

Deutsche Bank (DB.US) CEO warns: Trading matching business weaker than expected, compensating with FIC income. Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing stated on Thursday that the bank's financing and advisory business is not as strong as initially expected at the beginning of the year. Sewing mentioned at a financial conference that the trading matching business in the second quarter will be weaker than executives' expectations from early 2025, as companies have delayed decision-making following U.S. tariff policies. However, he also indicated that the performance of the trading business should be able to offset the impact of weaker-than-expected performance in the company's trading and securities issuance advisory business.

Uxin (UXIN.US) retail transaction volume surged 142% in Q1 2025, revenue increased by 58%. The financial report shows that the company's retail transaction volume and total transaction volume both doubled year-on-year. The total transaction volume reached 8,264 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 103.6%; total revenue reached RMB 504 million, a year-on-year increase of 58.0%. Among them, the retail transaction volume was 7,545 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 142%; retail revenue was RMB 466 million, a year-on-year increase of 72.8%. The gross margin for this quarter was 7.0%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year; adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to RMB 8.9 million, a year-on-year decrease of 78%. During this quarter, the inventory turnover days of major sales venues remained at about 30 days, and the customer net promoter score (NPS) maintained at 65 points, continuing to lead the industry. With the continuous rise in user reputation, Uxin's brand influence and reputation in regional markets have continued to strengthen. As of the time of writing, Uxin's stock rose over 7% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

After securing a large order from the U.S. military, nuclear newcomer Oklo (OKLO.US) takes advantage of the momentum to issue $400 million in new shares. Oklo announced the launch of a $400 million public offering of common stock and granted underwriters an over-allotment option to purchase up to an additional $60 million in common stock. The company stated that the proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, working capital, capital expenditures, and potential strategic investments. On Wednesday, the stock price rose by 29.5% after the company announced it had preliminarily secured a "critical mission" contract to provide nuclear energy services for a U.S. Air Force base in Alaska, a bidding project that had been delayed for two years. As of the time of writing, Oklo's stock fell over 5% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

U.S. aerospace and defense company Voyager (VOYG.US) continues to rise in pre-market trading. After completing a scaled-up initial public offering (IPO) in the U.S. and raising $383 million, Voyager Technologies' stock price surged 82% on its first day of trading. The Denver-based defense contractor closed at $56.48 per share on Wednesday, significantly up from the $31 offering price. Voyager has received a $217.5 million development grant from NASA to design the Starlab commercial space station, which is planned to replace the International Space Station, set to retire in 2030. As of the time of writing, Voyager's stock rose over 7% in pre-market trading on Thursday

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

At 20:30 Beijing time, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending June 7

At 20:30 Beijing time, U.S. May PPI

At 00:00 the next day, the Federal Reserve will release the "U.S. Quarterly Financial Accounts Report"

Earnings Forecast

Friday morning: Adobe (ADBE.US)