A single hand can earn up to HKD 30,000, the Hong Kong stock new share bull market reappears

"Multiple funds have poured into Hong Kong, making IPO (Initial Public Offering) subscriptions one of the hottest tracks in the recent Hong Kong stock market." At the beginning of June, a senior account manager from a Chinese brokerage summarized after having coffee with a client. Due to her busy schedule, the meeting with Caijing only lasted 20 minutes, during which she had to maintain online communication with clients regarding IPO subscriptions.

According to UBS statistics, as of the end of May 2025, the total scale of Hong Kong IPOs has reached USD 9.8 billion, ranking first in the world.

"After the Spring Festival this year, the Hong Kong stock market has become lively again," several financial practitioners in Hong Kong told Caijing.

"The last bull market for Hong Kong IPOs occurred from March 2020 to March 2021, during which companies like Kuaishou went public, driving the new economy sector to boom, and the profit-making effect of IPO subscriptions was also maximized. However, it has been over four years since then, and the Hong Kong stock market has experienced three years of downturn. Fortunately, this year has seen the emergence of many popular stocks, and the profit-making effect of IPO subscriptions has returned, with many clients continuously participating in Hong Kong IPO subscriptions," the aforementioned senior account manager mentioned.

This year, the Hong Kong stock market has sparked a "new consumption" trend, among which, MIXUE GROUP has continuously risen since its listing in March 2025, with a latest market value of HKD 201.8 billion, driving the valuation recovery of new tea beverage companies like Guming, Hu Shang Ayi, and Nayuki.

"I started getting into Hong Kong stocks after I accidentally hit the new stock Bluko in January. It was my first time participating in a Hong Kong IPO subscription, and I only subscribed for one lot. I didn't expect to win, and I didn't expect Bluko to rise 40% on the first day. I sold it when it doubled, and I didn't expect it to continue rising afterward." "Post-00s" Xiao Liu, currently studying for a master's degree in Hong Kong, believes he has a "newbie halo" for hitting Bluko, which has the highest cumulative increase this year. He subsequently chased after popular new stocks like MIXUE GROUP, Hu Shang Ayi, and CATL, but despite increasing his subscription leverage, he no longer had the luck of hitting it big.

Regarding the return of the bull market for Hong Kong IPOs, several industry insiders believe it is driven by multiple factors, including the five capital market cooperation measures announced by the China Securities Regulatory Commission in April 2024, the wave of A-share listed companies going public in Hong Kong, and the imagination space triggered by the return of Chinese concept stocks.

However, more industry insiders warn that the capital market has always been about chasing highs and cutting losses. Currently, the booming Hong Kong IPO subscriptions have given rise to high-risk and irregular behaviors such as cross-border illegal account openings and high-leverage financing for IPO subscriptions. Investors should examine their personal asset status and comply with the laws and regulations of both regions, treating Hong Kong IPO subscriptions with caution.

01 Profit-making Effect of IPO Subscriptions Emerges

From the data, how profitable is this year's Hong Kong IPO subscription?

According to Wind data, as of June 10, there have been 31 new listed companies in the Hong Kong market this year, among which Biyou Group transitioned from the Growth Enterprise Market to the Main Board and did not involve public offerings. Ultimately, among the 30 companies that had public offerings, as of June 10, 19 companies had stock prices higher than the issue price, while 11 fell below the issue price; based on the closing price on the first day of listing, 9 companies fell below the issue price, 3 closed flat, and 18 closed higher Among them, the only stock that fell below the issue price on the first day was Nanshan Pharmaceutical, which was listed on March 25, while the others were newly listed stocks in January and February.

As of June 10, based on the increase in new stocks, Blucon, Ying'en Biotechnology, MIXUE GROUP, Guming, and Brainstorm Aurora ranked the top five, with increases of 200.4%, 185.8%, 161.9%, 159.5%, and 116.1%, respectively. Other stocks with increases exceeding 100% included Shubao International and Chifeng Gold. The winning rate for these seven doubling new stocks ranged from 8% to 100%, meaning that many investors did not predict the subsequent trends of these new stocks correctly during the new stock subscription, resulting in "missed opportunities in Hong Kong stock new subscriptions."

In terms of the increase on the first day of listing, only Ying'en Biotechnology doubled on its first day, with an increase of 116.7%. In addition, the other top five stocks with the highest increases on the first day of listing included MIXUE GROUP, Rongda Technology, Blucon, and Auntie Shanghai, all with increases around 40%.

This means that from an initial increase of around 40% on the first day to subsequent increases exceeding 100% or even 200% in the following months, there were many entry opportunities for investors.

"At the end of March, many articles promoting consumption appeared in the media. I myself am a consumer of Pop Mart, so I bought the stock when it was around HKD 130 per share. Later, when it rose to HKD 190 per share, I sold it. I didn't expect Pop Mart to have such a large upside potential, and I couldn't resist buying again at HKD 220 per share, planning to hold it and see how high it can go," another "post-90s" investor told Caijing.

However, when it comes to the profitability of new stocks in the Hong Kong market, in addition to the increase, the number of shares per hand should also be considered.

According to Wind data, assuming investors hit the new stocks issued this year and sold them at the closing price on the first day of listing, excluding handling fees, the top five net profits per hand would be Ying'en Biotechnology, MIXUE GROUP, Blucon, CATL, and Heng Rui Medicine, with profits of HKD 11,039, HKD 8,750, HKD 7,395, HKD 4,321, and HKD 2,220, respectively.

If held from the IPO subscription until June 10, the top five most profitable new stocks would be Blucon, MIXUE GROUP, Ying'en Biotechnology, Guming, and Brainstorm Aurora, with profits of HKD 36,285, HKD 32,800, HKD 17,580, HKD 6,344, and HKD 3,740 per hand, respectively. For cornerstone investors, their investments are generally at a large scale of hundreds of millions, making their profitability even more remarkable.

(Data source: Wind)

02 Who is driving the new stock subscription boom?

The boom in new stock subscriptions in the Hong Kong market began with Blucon, which was listed in January. Subsequently, leading companies in consumption, new energy, and pharmaceuticals, such as MIXUE GROUP, CATL, and Heng Rui Medicine, were listed in Hong Kong, driving a wave of new stock subscriptions in the Hong Kong market From the characteristics of the current wave of IPOs in the Hong Kong stock market, new trends include the expansion of A+H listings, an increase in the number of participants in IPOs, a gradual tilt of IPOs towards institutional investors, and a decrease in the proportion of shares allocated to retail investors.

Regarding the total fundraising scale of Hong Kong IPOs, Zhu Zhengqin, Vice Chairman of UBS Global Investment Banking Division for Asia Pacific, told Caijing that as of the end of May 2025, the total scale of Hong Kong IPOs has reached USD 9.8 billion, close to the total fundraising amount for Hong Kong IPOs in 2024 (USD 11.3 billion); the total amount raised from new share allocations has reached USD 14.9 billion, nearing the total of the three years from 2022 to 2024, reflecting the high activity of fundraising in the Hong Kong stock market.

With CATL and Heng Rui Medicine successfully listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in mid to late May, the fundraising amount for Hong Kong IPOs in 2025 has jumped to first place globally. Zhu Zhengqin expects that, barring any unforeseen circumstances, the IPO fundraising scale and refinancing scale in the Hong Kong market for the entire year of 2025 will maintain a strong trend.

Speaking about the expansion of A+H listings, Hu Linghan, Head of China Equity Capital Markets at UBS Global Investment Banking Division, stated, "In fact, we sensed this trend vaguely at the end of 2024, and this year it has become more pronounced, with almost all leading companies in various sectors considering A+H listings. Many of the current A+H projects involve relatively large companies, and the industry distribution is becoming increasingly diverse. For example, CATL belongs to the new energy sector, Heng Rui Medicine is a healthcare company, Dongpeng Beverage comes from the consumer sector, and Weir shares are a leader in semiconductors."

Zhu Zhengqin further elaborated, "The concentration of A-share companies listing H-shares may have more far-reaching implications. China's economy is large enough, and there is enough innovation, with new companies emerging and listing periodically. When the relevant industrial chain becomes large enough, the spin-off of subsidiaries will bring new IPO reserve resources, such as Tencent, JD, and Alibaba in the past. The convenience of additional offerings in the Hong Kong stock market is also high, as the China Securities Regulatory Commission has simplified the process for companies to refinance overseas and implemented a post-filing system, making it foreseeable that the refinancing system in the Hong Kong stock market will become increasingly active."

Looking ahead to the Hong Kong stock market, Huatai International mentioned that the recent phone call between the Chinese and U.S. presidents has released positive signals, and the impact of tariff frictions may further weaken. With the easing of export chain pressures, China's growth expectations may rise, especially since the renminbi and renminbi assets have room for appreciation without following the appreciation of other currencies. Under the short-term market risk appetite boost, the performance of Hong Kong stocks relative to the global market is optimistic. It is recommended to allocate to industries with potential recovery in consumption, such as internet consumption, pharmaceuticals, and mass consumption like personal care, dairy products, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery.

Regarding the performance of the Hong Kong stock market in the second half of 2025, a research report from CICC mentioned that the current overall need for repair in China, but with structural highlights in the macro and market environment, is more favorable for Hong Kong stocks. This is because whether it is providing stable returns through dividends or as a structural opportunity mainline in new consumption, AI technology, or even innovative drugs, Hong Kong stocks have more advantages, which also explains why the Hong Kong stock market has outperformed. At the same time, the contradiction of excess liquidity domestically but a lack of good assets drives continuous inflow of southbound funds. As long as this "contradiction" exists, there will still be long-term allocation demand for domestic funds It is predicted that the relatively certain incremental funds flowing south this year will amount to HKD 200 billion to HKD 300 billion, with total inflows for the year possibly exceeding HKD 1 trillion. However, in the context of the Sino-U.S. rivalry, it is unrealistic to expect a significant return of long-term foreign capital, especially from Europe and the United States, but trading funds and regional capital still have the willingness to allocate to quality stocks.

It is worth noting that although nearly half of this year has passed, the "feast" of IPOs in Hong Kong is still ongoing.

According to Wind data statistics, as of June 10, there are currently 158 companies in the application status showing "in process," including industry leaders such as Dongpeng Beverage, Muyuan Foods, Sany Heavy Industry, Weir Shares, and Seres.

Author of this article: Cheng Mengqi, Source: Caijing Magazine, Original title: "A maximum profit of HKD 30,000 from a single hand, the bull market for IPOs in Hong Kong reappears"

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