Guotai Haitong Xun Yugen: Slow is Fast, Reasonable Purchase Price + Long-term Compound Interest May Be the Profit Code for A-shares

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Xun Yugen, Chief Economist of Guotai Haitong Securities, released a research report stating that the A-shares have gone through thirty-five years to date. Compared to the performance of major asset classes in China over the past twenty years, the long-term return rate of A-shares is quite impressive. However, due to the high volatility of A-shares, which jump around like a rabbit, there are few investors who can truly enjoy the returns from the stock market. The annualized increase of A-shares during bull markets is significantly higher than that of U.S. stocks, but at the same time, the declines during bear markets are also deeper. The firm believes that discovering a reasonable buying price plus long-term compounding is an important prerequisite for obtaining considerable investment returns. If the short-term increase is too large, it will overdraw future returns. For A-shares, a turtle-like slow rise is more necessary.

Key Points from Guotai Haitong's Xun Yugen:

Since the bull market peak on June 12, 2015, A-shares have "lost" ten years. From June 12, 2015, to now (as of June 10, 2025, the same below), the Shanghai Composite Index, Wind All A, and CSI 300 have generally fallen by about 30%, while the S&P 500 has risen by 186%, the Nikkei Index by 87%, the London spot gold by 182%, and the average transaction price of second-hand houses in Shanghai has risen by 77%. Compared to other major assets, A-shares appear dim. This is mainly due to the rapid rise of A-shares from the second half of 2014 to the first half of 2015, where the Shanghai Composite Index rose nearly 160% from around 2000 points to 5178 points in one year. If the benchmark date for returns is moved up to mid-2014, the return rate of A-share assets and other assets has significantly narrowed, as detailed in the table below.

From a twenty-year perspective, A-shares have performed well since June 6, 2005. Since the Shanghai Composite Index was at 998 points on June 6, 2005, the Wind All A Index has risen by as much as 746%, significantly outperforming the rise of London spot gold at 684%, the S&P 500 at 405%, the rise of second-hand house prices in Shanghai at 334%, and the Nikkei 225 at 238%. Meanwhile, the cumulative increase of the CSI 300 and the Shanghai Composite Index during the same period was also high, reaching 373% and 234%, respectively.

Although A-shares have been crushed by U.S. stocks over the past decade, the Wind All A Index has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 over the past twenty years, with an annualized return rate of 11.3%. However, it is estimated that very few investors have enjoyed this compound increase. The long-term return rate of A-shares is considerable, but the volatility is too high, leading to a poor investment experience. Whether during the bull markets of 2005-2007 or 2014-2015, the market's rapid short-term increases have overdrawn future space, resulting in prolonged sluggishness after a bull market.

Experience from U.S. stocks: The greatest magic of the stock market is long-term compounding returns. Data from the U.S. over 200 years shows that, in terms of annualized returns, the return rate of equity assets is not much higher than that of other major asset classes. From 1802 to 2021, the annualized return rate of U.S. stocks was 8.4%, long-term government bonds were 5%, and gold was 2.1%. If you invested 1 dollar in gold in 1802, it would be worth 94.3 dollars in 2021; if you invested in long-term government bonds, it would be worth 5677 dollars, while if you invested in stocks, it would be an astonishing 54.2 million dollars (including reinvested returns). As Einstein said, compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world Similarly, investment master Warren Buffett has achieved an annualized return of about 20% over his 60-year investment career (characterized by the performance of Berkshire Hathaway from 1965 to 2024), which is 10 percentage points higher than the annualized return of the S&P 500 including dividends. However, during the period from 1965 to 2024, his cumulative investment return reached 55,000 times, far surpassing the 390 times of the S&P 500.

Thought: Better to be a turtle and grow rich slowly. Bezos once asked Buffett, "Your investment system is so simple, why are you the second richest person in the world while others don't do the same thing as you?" Buffett replied, "Because no one is willing to get rich slowly." In fact, slow is fast.

Comparing the performance of major asset classes in China over the past twenty years, the long-term return of A-shares is quite impressive. From 2005 to 2024, the annualized return of the Wind All A (considering dividends) is 9.8%, ranking first among various asset classes. However, A-shares are highly volatile in the short term. Figures 3 and 4 compare the volatility differences between the stock markets of China and the United States under different market conditions. Although the annualized increase of A-shares during bull markets is significantly higher than that of U.S. stocks, the declines during bear markets are also deeper. Due to the high volatility of A-shares, which jump around like rabbits, there are few investors who can truly enjoy stock market returns. For A-shares, a turtle-like slow rise is more necessary.

Comparison of short-term and long-term returns of various asset classes. The previous discussion reviewed the history of A-shares over the past twenty years and U.S. stocks over the past two hundred years, revealing that a reasonable buying price plus long-term compounding is an important prerequisite for obtaining considerable investment returns. If the short-term increase is too large, it will overdraw future returns, just like a rabbit that runs too fast in the short term and then has to jump around and rest.

So, which assets currently show a significant deviation between short-term returns and long-term levels? If we characterize the long-term return rates of various assets based on their respective lows since 2000, and use this year's increase and the annualized increase over the past three years to characterize short-term returns, the data shows that the gap between the short-term and long-term returns of gold and U.S. stocks has become quite apparent. Since the low point in 2001 (as of 2025/6/10, the same below), the annualized increase in gold prices has been 11%, while its increase this year has reached 28%, and the annualized increase over the past three years is 21%, meaning the short-term increase exceeds the long-term return rate by more than 10 percentage points. For U.S. stocks, the annualized increase of the S&P 500 index over the past three years is 13%, also higher than its annualized increase of 9% since the low point in 2002 In comparison, the current annualized return rate of domestic equity assets in the short term is significantly lower than its long-term level. The annual increase of the Wind All A index this year is 0%, with an annualized return rate of -3% over the past three years (11% annualized return since the low point in 2005, the same below). The Shanghai Composite Index is -1%, -2% (6%), the CSI 300 is -3%, -10% (8%), and the ordinary stock fund index is 4%, -7% (14%). This deviation of short-term increases compared to long-term returns is worth noting.

Risk Warning: Past performance does not guarantee future results