Tesla Robotaxi encounters the "Trump&Musk farce," making it difficult for options traders to comfortably pay for the "dream premium."

According to Zhitong Finance APP, after years of anticipation and disappointment, Tesla Inc. (TSLA.US) announced that its autonomous taxi service (Robotaxi) will officially launch later this month. However, options traders are currently not ready to believe in the positive impact it may bring. Positions in options trading indicate that the activity is not expected to cause significant volatility.

Traders had originally hoped that Tesla would officially announce the service on June 12, but CEO Elon Musk stated later on Tuesday that Tesla's fully autonomous electric taxi service, Robotaxi, is tentatively set to begin its first public passenger service on June 22.

After this, positions in options trading indicated that the activity is not expected to cause significant volatility. According to data compiled by Piper Sandler options strategist Tom Keen, options traders expected the stock to rise by 5.4% over the week ending June 13, which is 24% lower than the average weekly volatility of the stock over the past 12 months.

Traders seem to be more focused on the political drama unfolding between Musk and Trump. Just last week, due to the public dispute between the two, Tesla's stock price fell from its peak to a low, dropping 23%. Roundhill Financial CEO Dave Mazza stated, "The key now is this contest."

Citigroup stock strategist Vishal Vivek pointed out that the price of Tesla's one-month options has returned to the median level compared to the past year. This muted signal stands in stark contrast to the growing public discourse surrounding the autonomous taxi project over the past year.

The stock's "skew" indicator (used to measure investor bullish or bearish sentiment) remains stable at present. The previous week's market volatility prompted investors to buy put options for risk hedging, leading to a rise in the prices of such options.

Executives, including Musk, released a video on Tuesday showing a Tesla vehicle driving in Austin without a driver, suggesting that the company will soon hold a debut event in the Texas capital. Hours later, Musk posted a message on his social platform "X," announcing the "tentative" date for the launch event. He stated, "We are very cautious about safety issues, so the specific date may change."

Ambiguous Signals Make Pricing the Autonomous Taxi Business Difficult

Strategists say that the tension between Musk and Trump makes it difficult to accurately gauge how much volatility the launch event itself will bring, and to what extent these fluctuations reflect the general unease caused by the political drama. Previously, headlines and social media commentary triggered a sharp drop in Tesla's stock price, leading to a significant decline in its market value in a single day Investors are concerned that the end of relations with the White House could be detrimental to Tesla, as the U.S. government is implementing policies that may result in billions of dollars in losses for the company.

According to Barclays, the volume of trades for buying put options surged by 375% following this conflict, while Tesla's stock price fell by 14%. Barclays strategists noted that the last time Tesla's stock price dropped this much in a single day (when concerns about slowing electric vehicle sales intensified), the volume of put option trades actually decreased, while the volume of call options remained stable.

As a result, Tesla's implied volatility (a measure of expected future market fluctuations) stands at 65%, the highest among the top 300 stocks in the S&P 500 index. Rocky Fishman, founder of Asym 500, stated that the company's options trading volume has surpassed that of Nvidia.

He remarked, “The market has high expectations for Tesla's performance, but the events surrounding Musk and Tesla are complex, making it difficult to draw clear unique positioning information regarding the autonomous taxi event.”

Expectations for the rollout of autonomous taxis have also been downgraded in recent months, especially after Musk indicated to the media that deploying a small number of vehicles in Austin was a 'cautious move.' Over the past week, several Wall Street analysts have also expressed concerns.

Robert W. Baird analyst Ben Kallo, who has a long-term bullish outlook on Tesla, downgraded the stock rating to "hold" on Monday, stating that he expects the company's autonomous taxi business to be more challenging, and profitability may fall short of the overly high expectations held by some investors. On Friday, Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch lowered his profit and sales expectations for the company, indicating that he anticipates Tesla will need at least one or two more hardware and software updates before achieving reliable autonomous vehicle performance.

Meanwhile, two other Wall Street firms recently downgraded Tesla's rating to "neutral," highlighting the short-term uncertainties the company faces and the "overly high expectations" surrounding its upcoming autonomous taxi release this week. Analysts from Baird and Argus rescinded their bullish ratings on Tesla, pointing out the market's instability and the reputational risks stemming from Musk's public disputes with President Trump.

Even with lowered expectations, the success of the autonomous taxi service remains crucial for the company to maintain its lofty valuation. Since Musk firmly shifted the company's direction towards autonomous driving technology last year, investor interest in this technology has intensified. Some investors even claim that if they believe Tesla cannot "solve the autonomous driving problem," they should not buy the company's stock However, the lower threshold for issuance means that any significant initiative needs to put in tremendous effort to be priced in this stock market. Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers, stated, "If this trial becomes a decisive event for victory or defeat, it would be extremely bad. As long as it is not the case, even if the outcome is not satisfactory, it can be interpreted as a step in the right direction."

Previously, Mazza stated, "Clearly, the market situation is quite pessimistic in the short term. This adds extra complexity, and the company's current situation does not need this complexity. People are overlooking the issues in car sales because autonomous ride-hailing services are about to be launched, and people are willing to take a gamble in this area. But now, if these initiatives are targeted for strikes, and Musk himself becomes a target, then the ' dream premium ' will significantly decrease, which is what we are seeing today."