Nintendo Switch 2 sells 3.5 million units in four days, setting a historical record, analysts call out a target of 20 million!

Nintendo Switch 2 sweeps the global market, selling 3.5 million units in just four days.

Launched on June 5 at a price of $449, the Switch 2 has become Nintendo's most expensive gaming console to date, but this has not dampened players' enthusiasm.

Data shows that in just four days since its launch, Switch 2 sales have reached 3.5 million units, setting a record for the company's first new console in eight years. Reports indicate that major retailers such as Walmart, GameStop, Target, and Best Buy have all shown the product as out of stock on their online stores.

This phenomenon recalls the buying frenzy during the launch of the original Switch in early 2017. Serkan Toto, CEO and founder of gaming industry consultancy Kantan Games, stated in an interview:

"The market's expectations for Nintendo were already extremely high, and they have indeed delivered. I believe more records will be broken in the coming weeks or months."

Doug Bowser, President and COO of Nintendo of America, said in a statement:

"The global fans' enthusiasm for Switch 2 as an upgrade for home and portable gaming is very gratifying to us."

Can Switch 2 continue its glory? Analysts remain optimistic in the long term

Nintendo has set a sales target of 15 million units for Switch 2 by the end of the fiscal year in March 2026, but analysts generally believe this expectation is too conservative.

Toto predicts that Switch 2 will sell over 20 million units in its first 12 months; David Gibson, a senior research analyst at MST Financial, also expects Switch 2 sales to reach 20 million units in the fiscal year ending March 2026.

These predictions are not unfounded. The predecessor of Switch 2—the original Switch—has sold over 152 million units since its launch in March 2017, making it Nintendo's second best-selling device, only behind the Nintendo DS.

Supply chain pressures and tariff increases create uncertainty

It is worth noting that Nintendo's stock price has not performed as expected following the launch of Switch 2, dropping 3.5% on Wednesday.

Analysts point out that investors may be digesting the potential risks behind the high sales, particularly the sustainability of the supply chain and uncertainties in external policies.

In April, Bowser stated to the media that the company had been working with "retail partners to ensure that there is sufficient supply not only during the launch weekend but for a long time afterward."

However, the reality seems to have exceeded expectations. Nintendo President Shuntaro Furukawa revealed that 2.2 million people in Japan participated in the lottery purchase event on the launch day of Switch 2, a number that exceeded expectations and the company's initial plans for store supply. Toto pointed out that while the supply shortage in Japan is expected to persist, the impact on other regions is relatively small:

“Outside of Japan, supply seems more robust than when the original Switch launched in early 2017. As long as fans are willing to take the time to search, there are still opportunities to purchase in most markets.”

Trump's tariff policy has also added uncertainty. In April, Nintendo announced it would delay pre-orders for the Switch 2 in the United States to assess the impact of tariffs.

Given that the Switch 2 is already Nintendo's most expensive console, further increases in tariffs could weaken its market competitiveness. Bowser stated in April that the company would "monitor the direction of tariffs" before making further decisions on price increases.

David Gibson from MST Financial believes that if the tariff issue is resolved or the tax rate is lowered, the price of the Switch 2 in the U.S. market is expected to decrease, providing additional support for sales.