Tesla Robotaxi countdown! Goldman Sachs supports: Two core advantages build a competitive barrier

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, as Tesla (TSLA.US) is about to launch its autonomous taxi service in Austin, Texas, investors are shifting their focus from the disputes between Musk and Trump to this potential new engine for Tesla's growth. On Tuesday, Tesla's stock price surged nearly 6%, marking a three-day rise. The company plans to deploy 10-20 autonomous vehicles for trial operations this week and will expand its fleet size in the coming months.

In this regard, Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out in their latest report that Tesla has two core competitive advantages in the autonomous driving field. First, with its existing business scale and unique hardware design—using custom chips and eliminating the lidar solution—its per-vehicle cost is significantly lower than competitors; second, the "end-to-end AI training system" can quickly respond to complex road conditions through adaptive algorithms, and this software architecture based on reasoning rather than programming will accelerate commercialization.

Aggressive Expansion Plans Questioned

Musk has set ambitious goals for the autonomous driving business: to expand services to markets outside Austin by the end of the year and to deploy hundreds of thousands of autonomous vehicles by the end of next year. Tesla expects that after scaling, the operating cost per mile can be reduced to 40 cents.

However, Goldman Sachs remains conservative, believing that the current comprehensive cost, including depreciation, insurance, and remote monitoring, is $1.34 per mile, and it is expected to reach Tesla's target level by 2040. The firm predicts that by the end of 2027, the scale of Tesla's autonomous taxi fleet will be about 2,500 vehicles.

Coincidentally, Baird downgraded Tesla's rating on Monday due to "overly high expectations." Analyst Ben Kallo pointed out, "Musk's expectations for the growth rate of autonomous taxis are overly optimistic, and the related benefits have been fully reflected in the stock price."

Service Implementation Under Close Watch

The success or failure of Tesla's autonomous taxi service is crucial. Musk has repeatedly emphasized that the company's essence is as an AI and robotics company rather than a car manufacturer. The Dojo supercomputer is set to be operational in 2023, and in 2024, the company will suspend its affordable electric vehicle project to fully promote autonomous driving services.

Despite facing numerous challenges, market expectations for autonomous taxis continue to support Tesla's stock price. In the first quarter, Tesla's sales plummeted amid intensified competition and consumer backlash against Musk's political stance. From December last year to early April this year, the stock price halved from its historical high, partly due to the market turmoil caused by Trump's announcement of tariffs on goods from multiple countries.

After Musk promised to reduce political activities at the end of April, the stock price rebounded, but this month it faced setbacks again due to his public clash with the president over tax reform. This public dispute has shaken Musk's special relationship with the White House, which was a key factor that investors previously overlooked regarding the weak performance.

Gene Munster and Brian Baker from Deepwater Research stated in a report last week that they believe the dispute between Musk and Trump will not shake Tesla's leading position in the autonomous driving field. They noted that given the competition between China and the U.S. for global AI dominance, "it would be unprofitable for the White House to hinder the development of autonomous driving. Ultimately, we expect rationality to prevail, and the federal government will continue to support the development of such services."