CITIC Construction Investment: L2 Assisted Driving Strong Standard Project Approved, Tesla L4 Commercialization Service Urgently Needs to be Released

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, CITIC Securities released a research report stating that the L4 industry has been continuously catalyzed recently. Tesla (TSLA.US) plans to launch a trial operation service for Robotaxi based on FSD in Austin, USA on June 12. Orders for leading Robovan companies such as Jiushi, New Stone Age, and White Rhino are accelerating, marking a turning point for the L4 autonomous driving industry this year. The robotics sector (technology growth) and the new vehicle cycle remain the main investment lines in the automotive sector. Factors such as new vehicles, domestic demand, and exports still represent strong structural increments. The industry's sentiment was previously affected by promotional activities initiated by OEMs during the off-season, but recent terminal orders have shown signs of recovery, and there is still potential for expectation repair or upward movement.

CITIC Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:

Passenger Car Sector: After domestic automakers increased promotional efforts during the off-season, orders have rebounded, with performance expectations and new vehicle expectations becoming the core support for the sector. Last week, the ZunJie S800 surpassed 3,600 orders within seven days of its launch, and the M8's weekly delivery volume exceeded 5,000 units, highlighting the resilience of the high-end luxury brand market. Last week, the strong standard project for intelligent connected vehicle combination driving assistance systems was approved, which is expected to enhance product safety performance, reduce safety accidents, and alleviate consumer hesitation towards intelligent driving, benefiting the industry's standardized development in the medium to long term.

Intelligent Driving Sector: Plans to launch a trial operation service for Robotaxi based on FSD in Austin, USA on June 12. Recently, Pony.ai's seventh-generation autonomous vehicle based on GAC Aion officially began public road testing in Guangzhou and Shenzhen; orders for Jiushi, New Stone Age, and White Rhino are accelerating, marking a turning point for industry costs and technology in the L4 intelligent driving sector this year. At this point, the capital market is rapidly catching up with industrial progress, and technological iteration, industry patterns, and new business models are still evolving, suggesting that the sector may be brewing a new upward momentum.

Robotics Sector: Last week, the market experienced fluctuations and corrections, and short-term expectations for the sector may be difficult to further upgrade, with the market's catalytic reaction to events such as Tesla's Optimus and Figure prototype new videos weakening. Individual stock performance has further entered a verification phase of "removing the false and preserving the true." It is worth starting to layout for alpha companies that have corrected to an appropriate level, with actual sample delivery points from OEMs like T Chain, benefiting from new technology iterations, and having support from main business performance. Currently, industry benchmark OEMs may have released the first batch of large-scale procurement orders, and the market is more focused on the medium-term prototype iteration (stabilizing commercial capability verification) and larger-scale mass production (validating industry trend turning points). It is recommended to configure based on medium-term certainty amid market fluctuations.

Target Aspects

Recommended to pay attention to: 1) Complete vehicles such as BYD (01211), Geely Automobile (00175), Seres (601127.SH), and Jianghuai Automobile (600418.SH); 2) Commercial vehicles such as Yutong Bus (600066.SH), Weichai Power (000338.SZ), and China National Heavy Duty Truck (000951.SZ); 3) Intelligent driving components such as Desay SV (002920.SZ), Bertley (603596.SH), and Baolong Technology (603197.SH). Recommended combination: BYD, Seres, Jianghuai Automobile (600418.SH), Li Auto (02015), Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050.SZ), and Longxin General (603766.SH) Risk Warning

Industry prosperity is below expectations. The domestic economy is expected to recover in 2025, but the specific pace remains to be observed, and the demand in the automotive industry may fluctuate accordingly; a slowdown in consumer income growth or fluctuations in expectations may affect the effectiveness of trade-in promotions, while insufficient demand in the passenger and freight markets will also restrict the scrapping and updating ratio of commercial vehicles, ultimately impacting the recovery process of demand in the automotive industry.

The implementation effect of policies is below expectations. The comprehensive implementation of trade-in and equipment update policies for consumer goods will still take time, and policy promotion and information dissemination also require a certain amount of time. Whether subsidy funds can continue to be disbursed effectively and whether replacement demand can be smoothly released remain to be continuously observed.

Export sales are below expectations. Exports are influenced by various factors such as international situations, national policies, and exchange rates, and there is a risk of fluctuations in overseas sales growth.

The competitive landscape of the industry is deteriorating. Under the trend of electric and intelligent vehicles, domestic automakers and parts suppliers are competing to layout, and with technological advancements and changes in supply factors such as new capacity, future industry competition may intensify, leading to fluctuations in market share and profitability for both vehicle and parts companies.

Customer expansion and the mass production progress of new projects are below expectations. Under the trend of electric and intelligent vehicles, the existing supply chain pattern for vehicles and parts is undergoing reshaping, and parts companies that gain new customers and new project increments are expected to benefit, while the market share of some parts companies may be affected