The signals of weak demand are becoming increasingly clear, and Goldman Sachs has significantly cut Tesla's delivery expectations

When Wall Street's most influential investment banks began to significantly lower Tesla's delivery expectations, the challenges faced by this electric vehicle giant were no longer a secret.

Goldman Sachs released a report on Thursday, reducing Tesla's second-quarter delivery expectations from 410,000 to 365,000. The message conveyed is clear: demand is weakening, competition is intensifying, and consumer enthusiasm is waning. This assessment echoes UBS's pessimistic forecast, together painting a grim reality of the fading Tesla brand halo.

Global Core Markets Decline Simultaneously, Goldman Cuts Tesla Delivery Expectations

In the latest report, Goldman Sachs analysts Mark Delaney, Dan Duggan, and others did not hide their concerns about Tesla's prospects. They explicitly stated:

We are lowering our Tesla vehicle delivery expectations and earnings per share estimates to better reflect the weak monthly data from key regions such as China, the United States, and Europe, as well as consumer research data from HundredX and Morning Consult.

The brutality of the data is reflected in every key figure. Goldman Sachs significantly cut the 2025 second-quarter delivery expectation from 410,000 to 365,000, far below the Visible Alpha consensus expectation of 417,000. As of May, industry and registration data show that key global markets, including the U.S., China, and Europe, continue to experience year-on-year declines.

More concerning than the delivery data is the systemic deterioration of consumer sentiment. Goldman Sachs cited data from HundredX and Morning Consult showing that Tesla's brand awareness and purchase intention have both declined in North America and Europe. Regional differences are particularly pronounced: consumer sentiment in Canada, France, Germany, and the UK is especially weak.

Long-Term Outlook Also Dim: Three-Year Expectations Cut Across the Board

Goldman Sachs's pessimism is not a short-term phenomenon but a systematic reassessment of Tesla's long-term prospects. Delivery expectations for the next three years have been comprehensively lowered:

• 2025: Reduced from 1.7 million to 1.575 million

• 2026: Reduced from 1.95 million to 1.865 million

• 2027: Reduced from 2.2 million to 2.15 million

Accompanying the decline in sales expectations, Tesla's profitability is also under pressure. Goldman Sachs has lowered its earnings per share (EPS) expectations for the next three years:

• 2025: Reduced from $1.25 to $1.10

• 2026: Reduced from $2.15 to $2.05

• 2027: Reduced from $3.10 to $3.00

Huge Discrepancy from $190 to $500

Goldman Sachs lowered Tesla's 12-month target price from $295 to $285 (essentially in line with Thursday's closing price), maintaining a neutral rating.

Goldman's cautious attitude has been echoed by UBS.

According to a previous article from Wall Street Insight, UBS analyst Joseph Spak warned last week that global consumer enthusiasm for the Tesla brand is waning. "Overall, we maintain a cautious stance on Tesla stock," Spak stated in the report. UBS maintains a sell rating, with a 12-month target price of $190, which is 33% lower than Thursday's closing price.

However, there are differing voices on Wall Street. "Musk's die-hard fan," Daniel Ives of Wedbush Securities, recently raised Tesla's 12-month target price significantly from $350 to $500, setting the highest expectation on Wall Street.

Ives views the upcoming launch of Tesla's autonomous taxi, Cybercab, as a major catalyst, believing it will usher in the "golden age of autonomous driving."

Additionally, according to Wall Street Insight, Morgan Stanley believes that Tesla's core capabilities in manufacturing, materials science, navigation autonomous systems, motor research and development, and robotics give it a competitive advantage in the drone sector—both for commercial and military use. Morgan Stanley estimates that Tesla's entry into the aviation market could be valued at $100 to $1,000 per share, which has not yet been factored into the current valuation