U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, Non-Farm Payroll Data to Be Released Tonight

1. As of June 6th (Friday) before the US stock market opened, the three major US stock index futures rose together. As of the time of writing, Dow futures rose by 0.31%, S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.40%, and Nasdaq futures rose by 0.41%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index fell by 0.23%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.05%, the French CAC 40 index fell by 0.02%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose by 0.03%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil fell by 0.13%, priced at $63.29 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell by 0.08%, priced at $65.29 per barrel.

Market News

Non-farm payroll data is coming: Bond market bets on a 90% chance of a rate cut in September, with key signals for the Fed's policy shift yet to be revealed. Bond traders will carefully analyze the May employment report to capture signs of weakness in the labor market to determine the timing of a Fed rate cut. On Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly surged to an eight-month high, briefly pushing US Treasury yields down to their lowest level in nearly a month, leading traders to almost fully price in expectations for a rate cut in September. Although traders still expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged later this month, any significant surprises in Friday's non-farm payroll data could prompt them to adjust their expectations. Interest rate swap data shows that traders believe there is about a 25% chance of a rate cut in July after the Fed maintains rates at the June 17-18 meeting, with the probability of a rate cut in September as high as 90%, and the market has fully priced in two cumulative cuts of 25 basis points within the year.

Global bond market "calm before the storm": Traders report risks daily, preparing for the next round of shocks. The market turmoil following US President Trump's announcement of increased tariffs on "Liberation Day" may have subsided, but the aftershocks continue in the risk departments of some of the world's largest banks. Traders at Bank of America, NatWest Markets Plc, and Dutch Bank are taking precautions—submitting daily risk inquiries, stress-testing portfolios, and reducing derivative positions. While all of this is aimed at reducing the risk of severe losses, the cautious approach may erode profits. Given that US Treasury bonds and stocks have plummeted since Trump's trade shock in April, volatility in the world's largest bond market has risen to a two-year high, followed by a relatively calm period, this caution may seem excessive. Indicators tracking the expected volatility of fixed-income asset prices in Europe and the US are at relatively low levels Barclays: Raises the S&P 500 Index target for 2025 to 6050 points. On June 4th, Barclays released a research report stating that it has raised the S&P 500 Index target for 2025 to 6050 points in preparation for a recovery in earnings per share (EPS) growth for the fiscal year 2026. The main logic is: the peak of trade policy uncertainty may have passed; as companies cope with the impact of tariffs on EPS, there is slight room for valuation increases; looking ahead to 2026, earnings growth is expected to return to normal from the tariff impact in 2025. Barclays remains optimistic about the financial, healthcare, and large technology sectors.

Citadel Securities President joins the chorus of pessimism: The U.S. fiscal deficit is a "ticking time bomb." Jim Esposito, President of Citadel Securities, pointed out that the U.S. fiscal deficit and the rising level of government debt are a "ticking time bomb," joining many financial executives in warning about the deteriorating fiscal outlook in the U.S. Esposito, who joined Citadel Securities from Goldman Sachs last year, stated that how the Donald Trump administration responds to this situation will be "crucial." "I do believe that the debt stock and budget deficit are a ticking time bomb," Esposito said Thursday at the Piper Sandler conference, "No one is smart enough to predict when it will show its ugly face." His remarks echoed those of JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon.

Former allies turn against each other! Trump and Musk clash, Tesla (TSLA.US) stock price fluctuates wildly. On Thursday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who recently stepped down as head of DOGE, and U.S. President Donald Trump engaged in a heated public spat over spending bills, marking a breakdown in their previously close relationship. As the "war of words" between the two escalated, Trump threatened to revoke government contracts for Musk's companies. By the close, Tesla's stock price had fallen 14%, evaporating $152 billion in market value, marking the largest single-day drop in history and falling below the $1 trillion threshold. However, this morning, the feud began to cool, with billionaire Musk stating that his rocket company SpaceX would not retire the "Dragon" spacecraft; he also showed a willingness to reconcile with Trump. As of the time of publication, Tesla's pre-market shares rose nearly 5%.

Individual Stock News

AI growth momentum slows? Broadcom (AVGO.US) Q2 revenue hits a record high, but Q3 guidance falls short of the most optimistic expectations. Chip giant Broadcom reported better-than-expected second-quarter results, but its guidance for the third quarter disappointed some investors. The financial report showed that for the second quarter ending May 4th, Broadcom's sales grew 20% year-on-year to $15 billion, slightly above the average analyst expectation of $14.96 billion; adjusted net income was $7.79 billion, a 44% year-on-year increase; adjusted earnings per share were $1.58, better than the average analyst expectation of $1.56 Lululemon (LULU.US) lowers full-year profit guidance under tariff pressure and plans to raise prices on some products. Lululemon Athletica's announcement of its Q1 fiscal year 2025 results and the company's reduction of its full-year profit guidance have raised concerns that fierce competition and tariff policies may be undermining the company's ambitious growth plans. The financial report shows that Lululemon's Q1 net revenue increased by 7% year-on-year to $2.37 billion, slightly above analysts' average expectation of $2.36 billion. Comparable sales grew by 1%, below analysts' average expectation of 2.8%. By region, net revenue in the Americas increased by 3% year-on-year, while comparable sales decreased by 2%; international market net revenue increased by 19%, and comparable sales grew by 6%.

Stablecoin giant Circle (CRCL.US) makes a strong debut, injecting confidence into the U.S. IPO market. Stablecoin giant Circle made a strong debut on Thursday, injecting confidence into the U.S. IPO market and potentially encouraging more companies in the digital asset and other sectors to go public. Reports indicate that Circle's initial public offering (IPO) performance exceeded everyone's expectations, pricing well above the previously anticipated range, with final subscription amounts more than 20 times the offering size. The company's stock price more than doubled shortly after opening and ultimately closed with a gain of up to 168%. Circle's $1.1 billion IPO is the most notable cryptocurrency IPO since Coinbase (COIN.US) went public directly in 2021. Circle's performance may instill greater confidence in other cryptocurrency companies looking to go public.

Under pressure from Trump's tariffs, Procter & Gamble (PG.US) plans to lay off 7,000 employees and divest some brands. Procter & Gamble (PG.US) will lay off 7,000 employees over the next two years, partly due to increased uncertainty from U.S. tariffs. As part of a broader two-year restructuring plan, the world's largest consumer goods company also plans to exit certain product categories and brands in some markets, including potential asset divestitures. This layoff represents about 6% of the company's total workforce, and Procter & Gamble stated that this is part of its ongoing strategy.

AI winners shine, Microsoft (MSFT.US) stock hits a new high after a year. Microsoft's (MSFT.US) stock price reached an all-time high on Thursday, breaking the previous record set nearly a year ago, as investors increasingly view the software giant as a major winner in the artificial intelligence (AI) space. The stock has risen over 30% since its low in April. This surge has added more than $800 billion to Microsoft's market capitalization, reaching approximately $3.48 trillion, making it the most valuable company in the world, slightly ahead of another big winner in the AI era, NVIDIA (NVDA.US), which has a market cap of $3.42 trillion. Microsoft has risen 11% year-to-date, outperforming the Nasdaq 100 index.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 20:30: U.S. May non-farm payroll changes (thousands) adjusted Next day at 01:00 Beijing time: Total number of active oil rigs in the United States for the week ending June 6.

Next day at 03:00 Beijing time: U.S. consumer credit for April (in hundreds of millions of dollars).

Next day at 03:30 Beijing time: CFTC releases weekly positions report