U.S. Stock Outlook | The three major stock index futures are mixed, and the U.S. Senate has approved Bowman as the Vice Chair for Supervision of the Federal Reserve

1. As of June 5th (Thursday) before the US stock market opens, the three major US stock index futures showed mixed results. As of the time of writing, Dow futures rose by 0.03%, S&P 500 index futures slightly increased, and Nasdaq futures fell by 0.02%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index rose by 0.29%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.16%, the French CAC 40 index rose by 0.27%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose by 0.15%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose by 0.22%, priced at $62.99 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 0.31%, priced at $65.06 per barrel.

Market News

Is a looser regulatory stance on the rise? Bowman’s appointment intensifies the controversy over the Fed's close ties with Wall Street. On Wednesday, the U.S. Senate approved Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman to serve as Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve, further indicating that regulation under President Trump will shift towards a looser approach. As a fifth-generation banker and Republican, Bowman has long advocated for more "tailored" regulation in her speeches. Compared to her predecessor Michael Barr, she hinted at significant changes in regulatory focus and a friendlier relationship with the banking industry. At the same time, Bowman has frequently countered Barr on issues such as bank regulation, stress test reforms, and capital rules. It is reported that Bowman stated to Congress in April that the current regulation is overly complex and redundant.

U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs double, industry executives warn: demand will be hit. Industry executives have warned that President Trump's newly imposed 50% tariff on aluminum imports may be difficult for consumers to accept, leading to a decline in demand. Derek Prichett, Senior Vice President of Global Metals at Novelis, stated at the 17th Harbor Aluminum Summit in Chicago: "We are concerned that this tariff policy may lead to a decline in demand, especially under the current tariff levels. Overall, this is indeed a negative factor." He also pointed out that his company's operations in Canada and the U.S. are significantly affected by the tariffs. This Georgia-based company is the largest manufacturer of flat-rolled aluminum products widely used across various industries, including automotive and aerospace sectors Kashkari: The Federal Reserve is in a "favorable position" to observe the impact of tariffs on the economy before considering interest rate cuts. Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, stated on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve is currently in a favorable position to observe the impact of tariff policies on the economy before deciding whether to adjust interest rates. He said, "So far, the economy seems quite resilient, so for me, now is the time to gather data and observe the results of the tariff negotiations before making a clear judgment on the direction of interest rates." Kashkari pointed out that the decline in corporate investment due to tariff uncertainty is a significant risk for the U.S. economy. He stated, "The longer this uncertainty lasts, the greater the negative impact," and added that some companies are considering layoffs in different ways, indicating signs of weakness in the labor market. A report released earlier on Wednesday showed that private sector job growth has slowed to its lowest rate in two years.

The dollar continues to decline, and Bank of America Securities is bullish on emerging market assets. Bank of America Securities stated that due to expectations of continued dollar depreciation, emerging market assets are expected to achieve double-digit returns this year. David Hauner, Head of Global Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy at Bank of America Securities, said, "This year, we can easily maintain double-digit returns because we believe the dollar is the most important driving factor and that U.S. long-term bonds will stabilize." Bank of America Securities is optimistic about Eastern European currencies and stocks. Hauner noted that in fixed income, Brazil remains the top choice due to its very high interest rates and the possibility of starting interest rate cuts before the end of the year. The dollar exchange rate is close to a two-year low. Wall Street banks, including Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan, expect the dollar to weaken further due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, slowing economic growth, and uncertainty in fiscal and trade policies.

Individual Stock News

Hello Group (MOMO.US) Q1 net revenue decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with Momo's paid user count dropping to 4.2 million. Hello Group's Q1 net revenue was 2.5208 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. The net profit attributable to the company was 358 million yuan, compared to 5.2 million yuan in the same period last year, with diluted earnings per ADS of 2.07 yuan, compared to 0.03 yuan in the same period last year. Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the company was 403.8 million yuan; diluted earnings per ADS were 2.34 yuan. In March 2025, the monthly active users of the Tantan app were 10.7 million, down from 13.7 million in the same period last year, with 800,000 paid users in the fourth quarter, down from 1.1 million in the same period last year. In the first quarter, the total number of paid users of the Momo app was 4.2 million, down from 7.1 million in the same period last year. Looking ahead, the company expects total net revenue for the second quarter of 2025 to be between 2.57 billion and 2.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% to 0.8%.

Waterdrop Inc. (WDH.US) Q1 2025 revenue of 754 million yuan, achieving profitability for 13 consecutive quarters. In the first quarter of 2025, Waterdrop Inc. reported net operating revenue of 754 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was 108 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.2%, achieving profitability for 13 consecutive quarters; Operating expenses (including selling expenses, management expenses, and research and development expenses) accounted for 40.3% of revenue, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1 percentage points. Since announcing the stock repurchase plan in September 2021, as of May 31, 2025, Waterdrop Inc. has repurchased approximately 54.2 million ADS (American Depositary Shares) from the open market. With the approval of the company's board of directors, Waterdrop also completed a cash dividend distribution of $7.3 million in May, sharing the company's value creation with shareholders.

To cope with tariff costs and weak demand, Procter & Gamble (PG.US) plans to cut 15% of office positions over the next two years. The international consumer goods giant Procter & Gamble (PG.US), headquartered in the United States, plans to eliminate up to 7,000 office positions over the next two years to enhance productivity and operational efficiency. The consumer goods giant, known for products like Tide laundry detergent and Gillette razors, stated in a presentation on its official website that the eliminated positions account for approximately 15% of the current non-manufacturing workforce, but did not disclose specific layoff locations. Additionally, Procter & Gamble plans to officially raise prices starting in the next fiscal year beginning in July.

Amid the wave of layoffs in tech giants, Alphabet (GOOGL.US) is expanding! CEO Sundar Pichai: AI talent will continue to grow next year. Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai stated that despite the company's increased investment in artificial intelligence (AI), it will continue to expand its engineering team at least until 2026. Pichai mentioned that the company will continue to invest in the engineering team in the near future and emphasized that "talent remains key." American tech giants, including Microsoft (MSFT.US), have laid off more employees this year, partly to free up resources for the massive investments needed to maintain leadership in the AI field. Alphabet itself has also conducted a series of layoffs in recent years to release resources. These layoffs have raised concerns about AI replacing certain job functions.

Apple (AAPL.US) loses lawsuit, U.S. appeals court refuses to suspend App Store reform order. The U.S. appeals court rejected Apple’s (AAPL.US) request to suspend the enforcement of the App Store reform order. The order requires Apple to allow App Store developers to direct users to purchase in-app goods online without paying a commission. The San Francisco federal appeals court made this ruling on Wednesday, marking the latest setback for Apple in its long-standing dispute with Epic Games, the developer of Fortnite, over its dominance in the smartphone software market through the App Store. Apple sought to suspend this order while appealing the judge's ruling from April, which mandated that Apple comply with the 2021 injunction issued after the judge found that the company engaged in anti-competitive behavior in violation of California law.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 20:30: U.S. April trade balance (in hundreds of millions of dollars), U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 31 (in ten thousand).

Beijing time 22:30: U.S. EIA natural gas inventory change for the week ending May 30 (in hundred million cubic feet) Next day at 04:30 Beijing time: Foreign central banks held U.S. Treasury bonds (in hundreds of millions of dollars) as of the week ending May 31.

At 20:15 Beijing time: The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision.

Next day at 00:00 Beijing time: Federal Reserve Governor Cook will speak at the New York Economic Club.

Next day at 01:30 Beijing time: 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Harker will speak on the economic outlook.

Next day at 01:30 Beijing time: 2025 FOMC voting member and Kansas Fed President George will speak on banking policy.

Earnings Forecast

Friday morning: Broadcom (AVGO.US)