U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, Market Remains Calm Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls in Response to Tariff Impact

1. As of June 4th (Wednesday) before the US stock market opens, the three major US stock index futures are all up. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.15%, S&P 500 index futures are up 0.17%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.14%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.59%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.12%, the French CAC 40 index is up 0.55%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.46%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.06%, priced at $63.45 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.08%, priced at $65.68 per barrel.

Market News

The US economy shows "tariff resilience" as the market remains calm ahead of non-farm payrolls. Options traders generally expect that after the US non-farm payroll report is released on Friday, the S&P 500 index may experience the smallest volatility in months. This phenomenon highlights that a series of unexpectedly strong economic data has effectively alleviated investors' concerns about the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies on the economy.

The S&P 500 index approaches historical highs, economists warn that employment data may become a turning point. Despite the chaotic tariff situation and soaring US federal deficits causing panic in the bond market, the US stock market continues to rise strongly. The S&P 500 index has surged 6.3% in the past month, marking the best performance for May since 1990, and is just a step away from its historical high. According to Bank of America data, this round of rebound is mainly attributed to the impressive performance of tech giants. After experiencing numerous concerns over the past seven weeks, the S&P 500 index has turned positive year-to-date, rising 1.74% as of Tuesday's close, rebounding 19.8% from the early April low. Despite the high market sentiment, economists warn that this optimism may face a reality check, especially from potential weakness in the labor market. Consumer spending is the core driver of US economic growth, and changes in the job market directly affect consumer confidence and spending levels.

Trump signs order to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50%, effective June 4th. US President Trump signed an order on Tuesday local time to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50%. This tariff policy will take effect at 12:01 AM Eastern Time on June 4, 2025. It is reported that the order states that the previous 25% steel and aluminum tariffs "have not allowed the domestic industry to develop and maintain the capacity utilization needed to meet its ongoing health and defense needs." The order states: "Increasing previously imposed tariffs will provide greater support for these industries and reduce or eliminate the threat to national security posed by imports of steel, aluminum, and their derivatives." Meanwhile, according to the order, the tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from the UK will remain at 25%.

Trump's tariffs are temporarily suspended while setting limits, giving the UK a five-week window to negotiate a steel agreement. The UK is facing a new five-week deadline to finalize a trade agreement with the United States. Previously, President Trump exempted the UK from additional tariffs on steel and aluminum exports, sparing it from a doubling of existing tariffs. The UK received an exemption, avoiding a 50% high tariff, while both sides are negotiating the details of the tariff reduction agreement announced last month by Trump and UK Prime Minister Starmer. However, the White House's announcement of the new tax rate retains the possibility of applying this rate to UK steel and aluminum, provided the president believes the UK has not complied with the agreement. This outcome means that the UK still faces the threat of tariffs from its closest ally, even as it works to eliminate the previous 25% tariff in accordance with the agreement reached by Trump and Starmer.

The U.S. Treasury unveils "QE alternative," with record buyback of $10 billion in U.S. bonds. On April 14, as U.S. bond yields soared after "Trump Liberation Day," the market speculated that foreign entities might be selling U.S. bonds to stabilize their local currency exchange rates, coupled with the chain reaction of $2 trillion in basis trade unwinding. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen appeared on Bloomberg TV to calm the market. During the interview, she revealed that she has breakfast weekly with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and stated firmly, "If the Federal Reserve does not act, I will take action myself." With a "policy toolbox" in hand, the Treasury's trump card is "expanding U.S. bond buybacks" (a form of quantitative easing to support the market). Six weeks later, facing the danger of 30-year U.S. bond yields approaching 5%, the Federal Reserve, which had been passive, finally prompted significant action from the Treasury.

Musk criticizes Trump's tax reform bill, calling it "an appalling waste." Last week, Musk appeared alongside President Trump in the Oval Office, enthusiastically participating in a press conference, but this week he suddenly "changed his tune." The world's richest man strongly criticized the tax reform and spending bill promoted by Trump on social media platform X, calling it a "shameful monster" and "an appalling waste," even specifically criticizing the lawmakers supporting the bill, saying, "You know you are doing something wrong." This bill, referred to by Trump as "One Big Beautiful Bill," is currently under review in the Senate. Musk's public opposition adds leverage to the already uneasy conservatives within the Congressional Republican Party. Republican Senator Mike Lee from Utah called on social media to "make this bill better."

The U.S. credit card fee dispute hinders the progress of the stablecoin bill. U.S. retailers and their allies in the Senate are trying to force credit card processing businesses to compete with Visa (V.US) and Mastercard (MA.US), complicating efforts to quickly pass the stablecoin bill supported by the cryptocurrency industry and Trump. Republican Roger Marshall from Kansas proposed this amendment, which received support from Democratic Senator Dick Durbin from Illinois Dibin previously led a successful bipartisan effort aimed at reducing debit card fees. This credit card competition measure was also supported during Vice President Jed Vance's tenure as a senator, when he was one of the other populist-leaning Republicans.

Individual Stock News

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE.US) Q2 performance exceeds expectations, tariff gloom expected to weaken. Hewlett Packard Enterprise reported Q2 revenue and performance that exceeded expectations, and stated that it expects the impact of tariffs on its business to lessen this year. The Texas-based company stated in a release that Q2 sales increased by 6% year-over-year to $7.63 billion, surpassing the average analyst expectation of $7.46 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.38, higher than the average analyst expectation of $0.33. CEO Antonio Neri stated in an interview that the impact of tariffs on the company's profits is expected to be more moderate, with the annual adjusted profit negatively impacted by tariffs expected to be $0.04 per share, down from the previous expectation of $0.07. The company also raised its full-year earnings guidance, expecting earnings per share of $1.78-$1.90 (original guidance lower limit was $1.70), higher than the market expectation of $1.80.

Jianyin Technology (JFIN.US) achieved revenue of 1.78 billion in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%. In Q1, Jianyin Technology achieved a loan matching transaction volume of approximately 35.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 58.2%, with revenue of approximately 1.776 billion and net profit of about 540 million. Regarding shareholder returns, the company updated its dividend policy in March, raising the payout ratio from no less than 15% of the previous fiscal year's after-tax net profit to around 30%. In May, the board approved a dividend plan of $0.80 per ADS, an increase of about 60% compared to last year; regarding the repurchase plan, the current stock repurchase plan cap is $30 million, and the board approved extending its validity until June 12, 2026.

Dollar Tree (DLTR.US) Q1 revenue increased by 5.4% year-on-year to $4.6 billion, Q2 adjusted earnings per share expected to drop sharply by 50% year-on-year. Dollar Tree issued a performance warning, stating that despite a 5.4% year-on-year revenue increase to $4.6 billion in Q1, with same-store sales exceeding expectations by 5.4%, the company expects Q2 adjusted earnings per share to drop sharply by 50% year-on-year due to rising tariff costs and a pressured consumer environment. Despite significant tariff pressure, Dollar Tree maintained its full-year net sales expectations and raised its earnings per share expectations for continuing operations. The company revealed that about 60% of its directly imported products come from China (a key target of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration), but most of the incremental cost pressure has been alleviated through supply chain optimization. CEO Mike Kreiden emphasized that historical experience shows the company is more resilient during economic fluctuations, and current market changes are turning into expansion opportunities.

Cybersecurity giant CrowdStrike (CRWD.US) Q2 revenue forecast falls short of expectations. CrowdStrike's Q1 performance saw its stock price plummet due to the disclosed Q2 revenue forecast falling below market expectations. The company stated that Q2 sales are expected to reach a maximum of $1.15 billion, lower than the average analyst forecast of $1.16 billion According to the statement, for the first quarter of the fiscal year ending April 30, the Austin-based company reported revenue of $1.1 billion, in line with analyst expectations, representing a year-on-year increase of nearly 20%. However, it recorded a net loss of $110.2 million, with earnings per share of 44 cents, compared to a net profit of $42.8 million and earnings per share of 17 cents in the same period last year. The adjusted earnings per share were 73 cents, exceeding the market average expectation of 65 cents. The increase in sales and marketing, R&D, and administrative costs was partly attributed to the large-scale software outage incident last summer.

Surpassing Microsoft (MSFT.US)! NVIDIA (NVDA.US) regains the title of the world's highest market capitalization. After the close of U.S. stocks on Tuesday, NVIDIA's market capitalization surpassed Microsoft, reclaiming the title of the highest market capitalization publicly traded company in the world. Data shows that at the close on Tuesday, NVIDIA's market capitalization was $3.446 trillion, higher than Microsoft's $3.441 trillion. This is not the first time NVIDIA has held the title of the highest market capitalization company globally. Since June of last year, NVIDIA has been alternating in the top position in market capitalization rankings with Apple (AAPL.US) and Microsoft. The last time NVIDIA was the highest market capitalization company was on January 24. In recent years, the AI boom has driven NVIDIA's revenue surge, with the company's GPUs being central to the rise of global data centers and generative AI. Data shows that NVIDIA's stock price has soared nearly 1500% over the past five years, with a 22% increase over the past 12 months.

Eight consecutive months of decline! Tesla (TSLA.US) China's wholesale sales in May fell 15% year-on-year to 61,662 vehicles. In May, Tesla's sales of electric vehicles manufactured in China fell 15% year-on-year, totaling 61,662 vehicles sold. This statistic covers the domestic sales and export volume of the Model 3 and Model Y produced at the Shanghai Gigafactory. This marks the eighth consecutive month of year-on-year sales decline for Tesla in the world's largest automotive market. However, compared to April, the delivery volume of the domestic Model 3/Y increased slightly by 5.5% month-on-month. Tesla's performance in the European market was even worse, with new car sales in the UK plummeting over 45% in May.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing time 20:15: U.S. May ADP employment change (10,000).

Beijing time 21:45: U.S. May SPGI services PMI final value.

Beijing time 22:00: U.S. May ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

Beijing time 22:30: U.S. EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending May 30 (10,000 barrels).

Beijing time 20:30: 2027 FOMC voting member, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, and Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook will attend the "Federal Reserve Listening" event.

Next day Beijing time 02:00: The Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions.

TBD: U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen will chair the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) meeting.

Earnings Forecast

Thursday pre-market: Hello Group (MOMO.US)