Track Hyper | Apple joins national subsidies: two major score surpasses competitors

According to data from the authoritative market research agency Zhoubao, in the 21st week of 2025 (May 19 - May 25), Apple ranked first in the Chinese smartphone market with a sales market share of 25.9%, further expanding its advantage from 21.5% in the previous week (W20), and maintaining its position as the sales share champion for two consecutive weeks.

This achievement not only breaks the continuous leading trend of domestic manufacturers such as Huawei and Xiaomi but also sets a new high for Apple's weekly market share in nearly three years.

Supply chain information shows that the activation volume of the iPhone 16 Pro series exceeded 800,000 units in week W21, a 150% increase compared to before the price reduction. The 128GB version, after adding national subsidies, is priced at only 5,499 yuan, making it the cheapest Pro model in Apple's history.

From the perspective of market competition, OPPO (including OnePlus and realme) ranked second with 14.9%, followed closely by Huawei at 14.8%, while Xiaomi and vivo ranked fourth and fifth with sales shares of 14.6% and 14%, respectively.

This data stands in stark contrast to the first quarter of 2025—at that time, Apple's shipments in China fell 8% year-on-year, with a market share of only 13.7%, ranking fifth (data source: Canalys).

The core driver of Apple's sales explosion this time is its first deep participation in the government-led "Smart Terminal Subsidy Program."

The original price of the 128GB version in the iPhone 16 Pro series was 7,999 yuan, which Apple directly reduced by 1,445 yuan on May 10. After adding a national subsidy of 500 yuan and various platform subsidies, the final price dropped to as low as 5,499 yuan, a reduction of 31% from the launch price.

This strategy directly rewrites the competitive rules of the high-end market.

Previously, domestic flagship models (such as Huawei Mate 60 Pro+ and Xiaomi 15 Ultra) established a price advantage with discounts around 5,500 yuan, while the subsidized price of the iPhone 16 Pro is on par with or even lower than these models, successfully converting brand premium into price competitiveness.

Data from platforms like JD.com and Tmall shows that within two weeks of the subsidy launch, the sales of the entire iPhone 16 Pro series surged by 150% year-on-year, with some color options going out of stock. The scalper market reversed from "an extra 50 yuan with no one interested" to "an extra 200 yuan being snatched up."

In addition to national subsidies, Apple's simultaneous upgrade of its trade-in strategy further amplified the market effect. This policy is highly attractive to existing users.

Deep collaboration on the channel side is also crucial. Apple has partnered with platforms like JD.com and Tmall to launch "Subsidy Zones," locking in inventory through pre-sales and lowering purchase thresholds with interest-free installments.

In terms of offline channels, Apple Store direct sales stores are also implementing the subsidy policy and have launched "purchase with data" packages in collaboration with carriers, further penetrating into third and fourth-tier cities.

Apple's strong rebound poses a direct impact on domestic manufacturers. According to TechInsights data, in the first quarter of this year, Huawei topped the market for the first time with a 20% market share, while Xiaomi closely followed with a 19% share, both benefiting significantly from the national consumer electronics (3C) subsidy program Apple's strategic adjustment marks the entry of the Chinese smartphone market into a new phase of "high-end model price wars."

Through a combination strategy of "clearing inventory + maintaining market share," Apple has successfully secured a time window for the release of its autumn new products; institutional analysts expect the iPhone 17 series may be released as early as August to sustain market enthusiasm.

For domestic manufacturers, finding a balance between technological innovation and price competition has become the key to competition. Huawei's return, Xiaomi's "people-vehicle-home" ecosystem, vivo's NEX technology platform, and Honor's Alpha strategy all need to deliver substantial breakthroughs within the next 6-12 months.

Notably, data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology shows that in the first quarter of 2025, the shipment volume of domestic smartphones increased by 3.3% year-on-year, with a 6.5% increase in March, providing strategic depth for local brands.

Apple's capacity layout adjustment is also worth noting. In May, Apple announced the transfer of iPhone production capacity destined for the U.S. to India, with Foxconn and other manufacturers investing $2.6 billion to build a new factory in Bangalore, aiming to achieve an annual production of 30 million Apple phones by 2025.

However, China will still bear the main production responsibility during the initial launch phase of new models, and it is expected that the Indian factory will take 3-6 months to take on incremental orders.

This adjustment has limited short-term impact on supply in the Chinese market, but it may change the global supply chain pattern in the long run.

On the policy front, the sustainability of national subsidy policies has become a variable.

The "Smart Terminal Subsidy Program" will expire at the end of 2025, and if subsequent policy efforts weaken, Apple will need to find new growth points in product strength.

At the same time, the "domestic substitution" strategy promoted by the Chinese government may be further strengthened, posing potential challenges for Apple, which relies on imported chips.

Apple's market performance in the Chinese smartphone sector during weeks W20 and W21 is essentially a comprehensive result of policy dividends, pricing strategies, and ecological advantages.

By leveraging national subsidies to lower prices, activating the stock market through trade-ins, and consolidating user stickiness through the iOS ecosystem, Apple has successfully reversed its previous downturn.

For domestic manufacturers, this is both a stress test and an opportunity for forced technological innovation.

As the penetration rate of foldable screens continues to rise and AI smartphones become the new battleground, competition in the Chinese smartphone market will become increasingly intense. In the future, the true winners will be those companies that can achieve a dynamic balance between cost-effectiveness, technological innovation, and ecosystem building