Unmanned logistics vehicles are entering a commercialization turning point

Under the resonance of policies and industries, the commercialization of Robo X unmanned logistics vehicles is accelerating. With multiple catalysts, the capital market's attention has significantly increased, such as Tesla's plan to launch Robotaxi services in June, continuous verification of the business model's feasibility by leading companies' operational data, and the potential for China's solutions to be exported globally. We re-examine the Robo X industry, with the Huatai Research automotive, electronics, and technology teams jointly interpreting the opportunities across the entire industry chain.

Automotive/Electronics: Policy-Industry Resonance, "Robo X" Welcomes New Growth

Under the resonance of policies and industries, the commercialization of Robo X (represented by Robotaxi and Robovan unmanned vehicles) is accelerating. With multiple catalysts, the capital market's attention has significantly increased, such as Tesla's plan to launch Robotaxi services in June, continuous verification of the business model's feasibility by leading companies' operational data, and the potential for China's solutions to be exported globally. Therefore, we re-examine the Robo X industry. ① Robotaxi: In Q1 2025, the fleets of Pony AI, WeRide, and Loongbo continue to expand, with rapidly growing order volumes and active overseas operations. ② Robovan shows significant potential in the logistics field, forming a positive cycle of "technology cost reduction - scenario validation - scale expansion," with the business model preliminarily validated, and it may accelerate landing in 2025. ③ Robo X is evolving into broader unmanned applications, with the commercialization of scenarios like Robosweeper and Robotruck also accelerating, and drone logistics emerging. The accelerated landing of the Robo X industry is expected to bring investment opportunities across the entire industry chain, and we recommend focusing on: core operating platforms, high-growth hardware suppliers, and scenario integrators.

Robotaxi: Acceleration of Commercialization, China's Solutions Expected to Achieve Global Output

The global commercialization process of Robotaxi is accelerating. China's solutions, relying on technological barriers and cost control capabilities validated in complex scenarios, are forming global competitiveness. Domestically, leading companies like Pony AI, WeRide, and Loongbo continue to expand their fleet sizes, with rapidly growing order volumes and charging operations launched in multiple locations, as well as cross-city and overseas expansions. Pony AI's Robotaxi service revenue in Q1 2025 increased by 200% year-on-year; WeRide's Robotaxi revenue accounted for 22.3% in Q1 2025 (up 10.4 percentage points year-on-year); Loongbo's cumulative orders exceeded 11 million. Internationally, Tesla is expected to launch Robotaxi services in the U.S. in June and has begun related testing; Waymo, Cruise, and Zoox are also increasing their investments.

Robovan: Preliminary Validation of Business Model, Expected to Accelerate Landing in 2025

Robovan shows significant potential in the logistics and delivery field, having formed a positive cycle of "technology cost reduction - scenario validation - scale expansion," and it may accelerate landing in 2025. ① Hardware costs have decreased exponentially: the New Stone Age X3 model has reduced from 200,000 yuan to 70,000 yuan through five generations of iterations, and the Jiushi Intelligent E6 model's bare car price is as low as 19,800 yuan, a 91% reduction compared to the first generation ②Robovan can significantly reduce costs for customers (operating costs decrease substantially and can operate around the clock), and the business model has been initially validated. ③ The conditions for scale expansion are mature, and leading players are accelerating financing and expanding production, with significant increases in shipment volumes. For example, Jiushi Intelligent has completed nearly $300 million in Series B financing, with a target delivery of 10,000 units by 2025; New Stone's target delivery for 2025 exceeds 20,000 units.

Robosweeper/Robotruck commercialization accelerates, drone logistics emerges

The connotation of Robo X goes beyond Robotaxi and Robovan, moving towards a broader field of unmanned applications. ① Robosweeper has been deployed on a large scale in multiple cities, effectively reducing labor costs and improving operational efficiency. ② Robotruck shows good application prospects in specific scenarios such as trunk logistics, ports, and mining areas. ③ Drone logistics, as a convergence point of "unmanned logistics" and "low-altitude economy," has unique advantages in solving the "last three kilometers" problem of end delivery, high timeliness demands, and transportation in complex terrains, and is emerging under the dual catalysis of policies and industries.

Robo X commercialization accelerates, expected to bring investment opportunities across the entire industry chain

Recommendations to focus on: 1) Core operating platforms: Leading companies that have formed large-scale operations in fields such as Robotaxi and Robovan, have clear cost reduction paths, and are technologically advanced are expected to benefit first from the accelerated landing of the industry. 2) High-growth component suppliers: Pay attention to suppliers with core competitiveness in key areas such as lidar, high-performance chips/domain controllers, and drive-by-wire chassis that have entered the mainstream supply chain, as they are also expected to benefit from the volume production of autonomous vehicles. 3) Innovators in application scenarios: Solution providers with integrated innovation capabilities that can deeply integrate autonomous driving technology with specific industry applications, such as companies in smart warehousing, smart logistics parks, and end delivery robots.

Policy and industry resonance, "Robo X" commercialization accelerates

Why are we re-examining the "Robo X" industry now?

In the context of policy and industry resonance, the "Robo X" track, represented by Robotaxi and Robovan, is accelerating from pilot demonstrations to a new stage of large-scale commercial use, with multiple key catalysts emerging and market attention significantly increasing. According to the prospectus of WeRide, it is predicted that by 2030, the global and mainland China L4 and above autonomous driving market (including Robotaxi, Robovan, etc.) is expected to reach $15.35 trillion and $581 billion, respectively, with a CAGR of 104%/105% from 2025 to 2030. We believe that this is a critical moment to re-examine and conduct in-depth research on "Robo X."

1. Key catalysts frequently appear, triggering a surge of market interest in "Robo X" ①Tesla plans to officially launch an unmanned fully autonomous driving (FSD) paid Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June this year, significantly increasing attention on Robotaxi and the L4 autonomous driving sector. ②Leading Robotaxi and Robovan companies have disclosed operational data, such as rapid growth in order volume, continuous expansion of operational scope, and significant reductions in per-vehicle costs/pricing, validating the feasibility of the business model and enhancing market expectations for the industry's future profitability. ③Strategic cooperation and global expansion are accelerating: China's highly complex traffic environment and vast market provide a unique "training ground" for "Robo X" technology. Combined with advantages in cost control, the "Chinese solution" is gradually forming global competitiveness and has begun to expand into overseas markets, such as Pony AI's cooperation with Uber in the Middle East and WeRide's expansion in Saudi Arabia and other regions. Companies like Jiushi Intelligent and New Stoneware are also making layouts in overseas markets.

2. Robotaxi: Policy support and significant cost reductions accelerate commercialization

Driven by continuous policy optimization, breakthroughs in technical bottlenecks, and significant cost reductions, the commercialization process of Robotaxi is significantly accelerating, with heightened market attention. ①On the policy level, in the past 25 years, first-tier cities in China, such as Beijing and Shenzhen, have further expanded the operational areas for Robotaxi charging and refined license management; regional testing result recognition mechanisms (such as the Greater Bay Area and Yangtze River Delta) effectively reduce operational costs for companies. ②On the technology and cost level, the capabilities of L4 autonomous driving technology in handling complex urban traffic scenarios have been further validated, and the costs of core hardware (such as lidar and computing units) have significantly decreased. For example, the total cost of the autonomous driving kit for Pony AI's seventh-generation Robotaxi model has decreased by 70% compared to previous generations. The upcoming launch of the next generation of mass-produced Robotaxi models by leading companies marks the industry's transition from retrofitting and testing to standardized, large-scale production. ③On the commercialization operation level, leading Robotaxi companies such as Pony AI, WeRide, and LoGo have continuously expanded their operational fleets, achieving significant growth in order volume and service revenue (for instance, Pony AI's Robotaxi service revenue in Q1 2025 increased by 200% year-on-year), and have begun charging operations in core areas of more cities.

1. Robovan: Cost advantages and scenario validation, initial business model running smoothly, may welcome rapid scaling

Robovan, with its significant cost reduction and efficiency advantages in specific scenarios and increasingly mature business model, is on the brink of rapid scaling. ①Hardware costs have decreased exponentially. The New Stoneware X3 model has reduced costs from 200,000 yuan to 70,000 yuan through five generations of iterations; the latest E6 model launched by Jiushi Intelligent has a bare vehicle price as low as 19,800 yuan, representing a price reduction of up to 91% compared to its first-generation model. ②The business model is initially running smoothly and forming a positive cycle. Robovan can save customers (such as express delivery, retail, and pharmaceutical distribution) over 50% in costs by eliminating driver labor costs and achieving round-the-clock operation (365 days, 24 hours), which has been validated in various actual operational scenarios Forming a virtuous cycle of "technology cost reduction - scenario validation - scale expansion." ③ With the conditions for scale expansion maturing, leading enterprises are accelerating production expansion. Ninebot has completed nearly $300 million in Series B financing, aiming to deliver tens of thousands of units by 2025; New Stone has built a manufacturing factory capable of producing tens of thousands of units and plans to deliver over 20,000 vehicles by 2025, which is expected to be the "explosion year" for Robovan.

1. From Robotaxi and Robovan to "RoboX," moving towards broader unmanned applications

The connotation of "RoboX" goes beyond Robotaxi and Robovan, encompassing a wider range of unmanned application fields. ① Robosweeper has achieved large-scale deployment in multiple cities, significantly reducing sanitation labor costs and improving operational efficiency. ② Robotruck shows good application prospects in specific closed or semi-closed scenarios such as trunk logistics, ports, and mining areas. ③ Drone logistics, as the intersection of "unmanned logistics" and "low-altitude economy," has unique advantages in solving the "last three kilometers" problem of end delivery, high timeliness demands, and transportation in complex terrains, becoming an emerging force in the "RoboX" landscape. The clear "cargo first, then people" development path from the National Development and Reform Commission's Low Altitude Division has laid the policy foundation for the rapid development of drone logistics, while leading logistics companies such as SF Express and Meituan have also made substantial progress in the commercialization of drone logistics (such as obtaining operational qualifications and opening regular operational routes).

Robotaxi: Accelerating commercialization, with Chinese solutions having global export potential

The global development of Robotaxi is accelerating, and its recent popularity has significantly increased, moving from the technology validation/pilot stage to the commercialization stage. The continuous optimization of the policy environment, the maturity of key technologies, significant cost reductions, and substantial progress in commercial operations are collectively driving the industry into a period of accelerated development.

1. Continuous optimization of the policy environment, speeding up the commercialization process: By 2025, the support for Robotaxi-related policies will continue to increase, with first-tier cities like Beijing and Shenzhen making substantial breakthroughs in expanding unmanned charging operation areas and refining license management; regional collaboration (such as mutual recognition of test results in the Greater Bay Area and Yangtze River Delta) also effectively reduces operational costs for enterprises and accelerates deployment.

2. Further maturity of technology and significant cost reductions, with initial signs of profitability per vehicle: The L4 level autonomous driving technology has further validated its ability to cope with complex urban scenarios, and the core hardware costs have significantly decreased. For example, Pony AI's seventh-generation Robotaxi autonomous driving kit has seen costs drop by 70% (with the costs of the onboard computing unit and LiDAR decreasing by 80% and 68%, respectively), significantly optimizing costs and greatly enhancing the economic feasibility of large-scale deployment. At the same time, the upcoming launch of the latest generation of mass-produced Robotaxi models by leading enterprises marks the industry's transition from modified testing to standardized production

3. The scale and effectiveness of commercial operations have both improved, with global output potential: Leading Robotaxi companies continue to expand their operational scope, opening paid operations in more core urban areas, resulting in significant growth in order volume and revenue. Pony AI's Robotaxi service revenue in Q1 2025 increased by 200% year-on-year, with paid operation revenue aimed at the public in first-tier cities up by 800% year-on-year; in Q1 2025, WeRide's Robotaxi revenue share increased by 10.4 percentage points year-on-year to 22.3%, with a fleet size reaching over 1,200 vehicles; Loongbo's cumulative orders exceeded 11 million, with over 1.4 million autonomous driving orders in Q1, up by 75% year-on-year.

In addition, China's highly complex urban traffic environment provides a unique "training ground" for Robotaxi technology, combined with its advantages in cost control, the "Chinese solution" has the potential for global output. Leading Chinese companies are accelerating their overseas layouts, with Pony AI obtaining the first batch of Robotaxi testing licenses in Luxembourg in April, and Robotaxi services set to connect with Uber this year, first launching in the Middle East; WeRide is expanding into the Saudi market, with Robotaxi services covering 15 cities in the Middle East; Loongbo signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Dubai in March 2025 to deploy over 1,000 Yich cars.

The global commercialization process of Robotaxi is accelerating, with Tesla leading industry transformation expectations:

1. Tesla is expected to launch Robotaxi services in the U.S. in June, having begun related testing. Previously, Musk revealed that Tesla plans to officially launch an unmanned, fully autonomous driving (FSD) paid Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June this year, with plans to gradually expand to other regions in the U.S. and global markets. Musk stated that Tesla will initially launch about 10 autonomous Robotaxis in Austin and expand to 1,000 within a few months. Recently, according to Bloomberg, Tesla plans to launch its robot taxi service in Austin on June 12 and has already begun testing the unmanned Model Y SUV on public roads in Austin, monitored by engineers in the passenger seat, with no remote operation.

2. Traditional automakers and tech giants are also accelerating their investments: General Motors' Cruise has launched a new generation of competitive models; Waymo is expanding into five major U.S. cities based on the Google ecosystem and has officially been authorized to expand Robotaxi services in the San Francisco Peninsula and San Jose, with a weekly service frequency reaching 250,000; Amazon's Zoox focuses on customized Robotaxi development, aiming to provide modular solutions for OEM manufacturers.

Chinese Robotaxi companies are accelerating commercialization, with significant results in technology iteration and cost optimization:

1. Pony AI: Commercialization and internationalization are steadily advancing, with the cost of the seventh-generation model decreasing by 70%

The large-scale operation of Robotaxi has begun to show results, and commercialization is steadily advancing both domestically and internationally. By the end of 2024, the company's average daily order volume per vehicle is approximately 15, and by Q1 2025, the total operational area of Robotaxi in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen has exceeded 2,000 square kilometers. In Q1 2025, Pony AI's Robotaxi revenue reached USD 1.73 million, a year-on-year increase of 200%, with revenue from paid operations open to the public in first-tier cities increasing by 800% year-on-year.

In terms of domestic commercialization: 1) In April, the "Transportation Service" entry was integrated with WeChat and Tencent Maps, expected to reach over 1.3 billion users; 2) In March, paid Robotaxi services were launched at Beijing South Station, Daxing Airport, and Yizhuang Hub; 3) In March, the first market-oriented operation pilot license for Robotaxi was obtained in Nanshan District, Shenzhen; 4) In February, an operational line from downtown Guangzhou to Baiyun Airport/Guangzhou South Station was approved. In terms of international expansion: 1) In May, a strategic cooperation with Uber was established, with Robotaxi set to be integrated into Uber in the Middle East this year; 2) In April, the first batch of Robotaxi testing licenses was obtained in Luxembourg; 3) In March, a joint pilot for Robotaxi was launched with ComfortDelGro in Guangzhou; 4) In January, road testing for Robotaxi began in Seoul, South Korea.

The seventh-generation Robotaxi platform has seen a hardware BOM cost reduction of approximately 70%, with mass production planned for H2 2025. On April 23 at the Shanghai Auto Show, Pony AI globally launched the seventh-generation automotive-grade autonomous driving hardware and software system solution, showcasing three mass production models from the seventh-generation Robotaxi family—BAIC New Energy's ARCFOX Alpha T5, Toyota's e-Palette 4X, and GAC Aion's T-Rex. The total cost of the autonomous driving kit for the seventh-generation model has decreased by 70% compared to the previous generation, with the costs of the core components, the onboard computing unit and LiDAR, decreasing by 80% and 68%, respectively. All three models have completed road testing and are in the trial production stage, with regular production expected to begin this summer. The company anticipates that the seventh-generation platform models will enter mass production in H2 2025 and will expand from first-tier cities to second and third-tier cities.

1. WeRide: Acceleration of Robotaxi commercialization, with breakthroughs in domestic and international operations and strategic cooperation

As of Q1 2025, the company's fleet size has reached over 1,200 vehicles, with Robotaxi revenue of RMB 16.1 million (approximately USD 2.2 million), accounting for 22.3% of the company's total quarterly revenue, an increase of 10.4 percentage points year-on-year. Recent domestic developments: 1) Coverage in core areas of Guangzhou: In May, 8 pilot routes for 24-hour Robotaxi service were launched in downtown Guangzhou, covering key landmarks such as Canton Tower, Baiyun Airport, and Zhujiang New Town; 2) Commercialization of Level-4 buses: In May, the first paid Level-4 robotic bus route in Guangzhou was opened, with a total length of 13.6 kilometers; 3) Sanitation robots: In Q1 2025, cleaning vehicle services were expanded to cities such as Guangzhou and Dongguan, and in May, a trial of the S1 street sweeper was launched at Jurong Lake Gardens in Singapore, accelerating international deployment International expansion accelerates: 1) Middle East strategic cooperation: After partnering with Uber to expand Robotaxi services to Abu Dhabi and Dubai, further coverage of 15 cities in the Middle East is promoted, and Uber simultaneously adds a $100 million equity investment; 2) Global compliance layout: In March, obtained France's first Level 4 Robobus trial operation license, becoming the only autonomous driving company globally to obtain operating licenses in China, the U.S., Europe, Singapore, and the UAE.

1. LoBo Quick Run: The fleet has exceeded 1,000 vehicles, with cumulative orders exceeding 11 million, and recently promoted multiple overseas collaborations.

LoBo Quick Run has now covered 15 cities worldwide, deploying over 1,000 unmanned vehicles. In Q1 2025, LoBo Quick Run's autonomous driving orders exceeded 1.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 75%. As of May 2025, LoBo Quick Run's cumulative autonomous driving service orders exceeded 11 million. In May 2025, the company clarified its global strategic core "scaled landing," emphasizing safety first, with the goal of becoming the world's most successful autonomous driving export company. 1) Middle East scaled landing: In March 2025, signed a strategic cooperation with Dubai to deploy over 1,000 Yichi 06 models and collaborate with Autogo to create the largest unmanned driving fleet in Abu Dhabi; 2) European first test preparation: In May 2025, initiated negotiations for ApolloGo testing in Switzerland, planning to conduct tests in Switzerland in collaboration with PostAuto by the end of the year, while simultaneously promoting the landing of unmanned ride-hailing services in Turkey.

Robovan: Initial commercial model running smoothly, rapid scaling expected in 2025

2025 is expected to be the year of rapid scaling for unmanned logistics vehicles, forming a positive cycle of "cost reduction through technology - scenario validation - scale expansion." According to the Forward Industry Research Institute, by the end of 2024, the cumulative application of unmanned delivery vehicles nationwide will exceed 6,000, covering over 100 scenarios and delivering hundreds of millions of orders, with the actual number likely higher. Companies like Jiushi Intelligent, New Stone Age, and White Rhino have made significant progress, with their products significantly reducing operating costs and improving delivery efficiency, reshaping the business model for urban delivery and even medium-short distance transportation. The industry has now formed a positive cycle of "cost reduction through technology - scenario validation - scale expansion":

1. Hardware costs have decreased exponentially. The New Stone Age X3 model has dropped from 200,000 yuan to 70,000 yuan through five generations of iterations, while the Jiushi Intelligent E6 model has a bare vehicle price as low as 19,800 yuan, a 91% reduction compared to the first generation.

2. Robovan can achieve significant cost savings for customers, with the commercial model initially running smoothly. For example, compared to traditional driver models, unmanned delivery vehicles can save costs: ① Eliminating drivers from production factors directly saves labor wages while avoiding indirect personnel management costs (training, scheduling, attendance, etc.). ② Unmanned vehicles can operate around the clock (365×24 hours), compared to traditional vehicles that are idle over 40% of the time, significantly improving vehicle utilization efficiency and spreading unit capacity costs

3. The conditions for scale expansion are mature, and leading players are rapidly expanding in financing/capacity. Jiushi Intelligent has completed nearly $300 million in Series B financing; Xinshiqi has built a manufacturing factory with a capacity of tens of thousands, aiming to deliver over 20,000 units by 2025; and the target for Bai Xiniu is 5,000 daily active units by 2026.

The leading players in Robovan mainly include Jiushi Intelligent, Xinshiqi, and Bai Xiniu. Jiushi Intelligent has a strong competitive hardware price (such as the E6 model with a bare car price of 19,800 yuan) and a "low-cost hardware + subscription service" model, widely covering diverse urban distribution scenarios such as express delivery, supermarkets, and pharmaceuticals. It has already secured important clients like DHL and China Post, with cumulative deliveries exceeding 3,000 units by the end of 2024, and aims to deliver tens of thousands by 2025 with nearly $300 million in Series B financing. Xinshiqi has entered the logistics distribution and park retail sectors with its X series unmanned vehicles, collaborating with leading companies like SF Express and JD.com. It has deployed a total of 5,000 units globally and plans to achieve an annual production capacity of 30,000 units by 2025 while expanding into the southwestern market, with a C+ round financing amounting to 1 billion yuan. Bai Xiniu focuses on instant delivery and intra-city allocation of fresh produce and supermarkets, securing clients such as Yonghui Supermarket and Dada Express. Through partnerships with SF Express and Xinyuan Automobile, it strengthens its vehicle-grade manufacturing and operational capabilities, with Series B financing reaching 200 million yuan, aiming for 5,000 daily active units by 2026.

1. Jiushi Intelligent has completed nearly $300 million in Series B financing, with a post-investment valuation of $796 million. Jiushi (Suzhou) Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. was established in August 2021, focusing on the research and application of L4 level autonomous driving technology in urban distribution. The core team has over 15 years of experience in the autonomous driving field, with founder Kong Qi graduating from the artificial intelligence program at Jiaotong University and previously working at Baidu and JD.com. In February 2024, Jiushi Intelligent completed nearly $100 million in Series A financing, with a post-investment valuation of $420 million; in November 2024, it completed $100 million in Series B1 financing; and in April 2025, it completed $100 million in Series B3 financing, with a post-investment valuation of $796 million. The funds raised will be used as follows: 70% for R&D (next-generation products and solid-state radar), 20% for supply chain construction, and 10% for overseas expansion.

Focusing on the trillion-level urban distribution B2B scenario, it has been operating regularly in over 200 cities across 29 provinces. Jiushi Intelligent focuses on the trillion-level urban distribution B2B scenario, serving clients across multiple industries including express delivery, fresh produce supermarkets, pharmaceutical cold chains, food baking, and auto parts As of the end of 2024, the company has delivered over 3,000 units, serving more than 600 customers, and has achieved normalized operations in over 200 cities across 29 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions, with overseas operations established in Singapore, Japan, South Korea, and the Middle East.

The latest E series has a starting price of only 19,800 yuan, completing the product matrix from a single product to a multi-platform layout. The company's current products mainly consist of the Z series and E series platforms, with the Z series having released 4 models, with bare car prices ranging from 39,800 to 89,800 yuan depending on the model size. On May 27, 2025, Jiushi Intelligent released the new E series unmanned logistics vehicle platform and its first model, the E6. Compared to the Z series' "all-rounder" positioning, the E series emphasizes "specialization," with customized optimizations for specific scenarios. The first model of the E platform, the E6, is designed for light parcel logistics scenarios, featuring low weight and large volume, with hardware priced at 19,800 yuan and an FSD service fee of 1,800 yuan/month.

1. Xinshiqi focuses on the research and commercialization of L4 level unmanned vehicle technology, with cumulative orders exceeding 20,000 units. Xinshiqi Huitong (Beijing) Technology Co., Ltd. was established on February 13, 2018, and has built an unmanned vehicle manufacturing factory with a capacity of 10,000 units. The company possesses triple advantages in AI, robotics, and electric vehicles, and is committed to the application of unmanned driving technology across various fields and multiple application scenarios. It has obtained road rights licenses for over 100,000 square kilometers in more than 30 provinces and cities nationwide and has reached large-scale cooperation with leading logistics companies such as SF Express and JD.com. As of early 2025, Xinshiqi's cumulative order volume has surpassed 20,000 units, with an annual production capacity plan of 30,000 vehicles, covering 300 cities and expanding to 13 countries including Southeast Asia and Japan, aiming to become a leader in the global unmanned logistics vehicle manufacturing industry.

The company builds a product matrix that covers all scenarios and is deeply integrated with express delivery companies such as Zhongtong and Yuantong. Xinshiqi's core product, the X3, adopts multi-modal BEV spatial 4D perception technology and is equipped with dual LiDAR, achieving automated driving on public roads at 40 km/h. The cost per vehicle has been reduced from the initial 200,000 yuan to 70,000 yuan through five generations of iterations. The high-end model X6 has a loading volume of 6m³, supports cold chain transportation, and uses a central computing architecture to enhance stability. The company's pricing strategy focuses on "scale cost reduction," lowering marginal costs through technological iterations and self-built manufacturing factories (the first L4 level unmanned vehicle factory in the country). Currently, the company adopts a "total package operation + regional pilot" model, deeply integrating with express delivery companies such as Zhongtong and Yuantong, with an average order price of about 80,000 to 120,000 yuan (including service fees), and contributes 10% of revenue through data services (such as traffic dynamic scheduling), forming a diversified revenue structure

1. White Rhino positions itself as an "autonomous driving service operator" and has reached strategic cooperation with SF Express and Yonghui Supermarket. White Rhino Zhida (Beijing) Technology Co., Ltd. was established on March 13, 2019, focusing on providing L4 autonomous driving solutions for urban public road last-mile delivery. It was co-founded by Zhu Lei and Xia Tian, former members of Baidu's autonomous driving team, and is the first domestic company to conduct unmanned delivery of fresh produce and supermarket goods on urban public roads with L4-level autonomous driving. The company is positioned as an "autonomous driving service operator," entering the last-mile instant delivery field with a hardware + software + operational model, with core scenarios including pharmaceuticals, fresh produce, and supermarket logistics. By 2025, White Rhino aims to achieve normalized operations in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, and has established strategic cooperation with SF Express and Yonghui Supermarket. The company has obtained ISO 22737 whole vehicle L4 autonomous driving international safety certification and dual certification from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Public Security in China. Technically, it achieves 40 km/h public road autonomous driving using a single Orin chip, becoming the only company in the industry to complete L4 autonomous driving over 40 kilometers on public roads using a single Orin chip.

Focusing on "high cost-performance unmanned delivery services," the company currently has two unmanned delivery models, R3 and R5. White Rhino's models use automotive-grade sensors and high-performance domain controllers, equipped with BEV algorithm solutions, with delivery efficiency equivalent to 3-5 delivery personnel, and a single load capacity of up to 100 packages of pharmaceuticals or fresh goods, equivalent to 10-15 human laborers. The company's business model is hardware + software + commercial operation, not directly selling vehicles but operating its own unmanned vehicles. On April 11, 2025, White Rhino reached a strategic cooperation with Ele.me, focusing on off-campus delivery scenarios. The two parties will first scale the unmanned delivery solution in campus scenarios, reconstructing the campus delivery system with L4-level autonomous driving technology, with the first phase expected to cover 100 universities nationwide.

Robosweeper and Robotruck Commercialization Accelerates

Robosweeper (autonomous sanitation vehicle): The commercialization process is accelerating, with leading companies such as WeRide and XianTu Intelligent achieving large-scale deployment in multiple cities. Autonomous sanitation vehicles can significantly reduce labor costs, improve cleaning efficiency, and enhance operational safety, especially under nighttime and adverse weather conditions. Currently, autonomous sanitation vehicles have been applied in various scenarios such as parks, industrial parks, and urban open roads, and are gradually transitioning to market-based charging operations Robotruck (autonomous trucks): Positive progress has been made in the commercial application of autonomous trucks in specific scenarios such as trunk logistics, ports, and mining areas. Companies like TuSimple (which has been delisted from the US stock market), Pony AI, and Yingche Technology continue to invest in the research and testing of L4 level autonomous heavy trucks. Autonomous trucks are expected to address industry pain points such as the shortage of long-haul freight drivers and fatigue driving, while also improving fuel efficiency. Although challenges remain in terms of regulations and costs, the commercial prospects in specific closed or semi-closed scenarios are gradually emerging, with traditional engineering machinery and commercial vehicle companies like Beifang Holdings and Yutong Heavy Industry actively laying out plans in the niche market of unmanned trucks for mining areas.

Drones: Unmanned logistics combined with the low-altitude economy, drone logistics is emerging

Drone logistics: A core component of the low-altitude economy and an important part of the unmanned logistics system, is entering a period of accelerated development opportunities. Drone logistics can significantly enhance logistics efficiency and reduce operating costs through structural optimization, model innovation, and all-weather autonomous operations, especially showing great application potential in branch transportation and last-mile delivery.

1. At the top-level design level, the Low Altitude Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission has clarified the development path of "cargo first, people later," laying a policy foundation for the rapid growth of drone logistics in the short to medium term. Meanwhile, multiple national ministries (such as the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council's "Action Plan for Effectively Reducing Logistics Costs Across Society") and local governments (such as Hunan and Guangzhou) have introduced policies to encourage the application of drones in logistics, aiming to promote the scaling and commercialization of drone delivery.

2. At the industrial level, substantial progress has been made in the commercial operation of drone logistics recently. SF Express's Fengyi obtained the first national branch logistics drone commercial trial operation license (OC certificate) in January 2024, and in March 2024, Fengfei Aviation received the first cargo eVTOL model qualification certificate (TC certificate). Meituan's self-developed fourth-generation drone received the first national low-altitude logistics full coverage operation qualification certificate (OC certificate) from the Civil Aviation Administration in April 2025. Leading companies are not only continuously iterating on technology but also actively expanding operational scenarios and route networks, such as conducting cargo transportation in urban instant delivery, rural and remote area logistics, intercity and inter-island transportation, and emergency material support.

3. In terms of market space, China's drone logistics market is expected to reach 150 billion yuan by 2030. Benefiting from low-altitude economy policies, technological maturity, and growing delivery demand, the drone logistics market is expected to achieve rapid growth. According to the Shenzhen Drone Industry Association, the market size of China's express logistics drone market could reach approximately 30 billion yuan by 2024. According to the Leopard Research Institute, by 2030, the market size of China's logistics drone market will reach 150 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) as high as 57%.

Investment Suggestions The booming development of the Robo X industry is expected to bring investment opportunities across the entire industry chain. It is recommended to focus on: 1) Core operating platforms: Leading companies that have formed large-scale operations in areas such as Robotaxi and Robovan, with clear cost reduction paths and leading technologies, are likely to benefit first from the rapid implementation of the industry. 2) High-growth component suppliers: Pay attention to suppliers with core competitiveness in key areas such as lidar, high-performance chips/domain controllers, and steer-by-wire chassis that have entered the mainstream supply chain, as they are also expected to benefit from the volume production of autonomous vehicles. 3) Innovators in application scenario expansion: Solution providers with integrated innovation capabilities that can deeply integrate autonomous driving technology with specific industry applications, such as companies in smart warehousing, smart logistics parks, and last-mile delivery robots.

Electronics: Robovan Unmanned Logistics Vehicle: Strong Urban Distribution Demand, L4 Commercialization Begins

Robovan unmanned logistics vehicles accelerate commercialization, focus on investment opportunities in the industry chain

Unmanned logistics vehicles Robovan are currently accelerating their commercialization in the express delivery sector, especially driven by the demand for cost reduction in unmanned operations at the point - station end. As the low-speed delivery scenarios at the end of express delivery are being successfully implemented, we believe this cooperation model is expected to gradually expand into other urban distribution areas such as fresh produce and supermarkets. Current industry players include: (1) First-tier startups: New Stone Technology, NineSight Intelligence, and White Rhino, which have L4 autonomous driving technology and logistics experience; (2) Delivery companies: Cainiao, Meituan, etc.; (3) L4 multi-scenario companies: WeRide, etc. Leading companies in the industry, such as New Stone Technology and NineSight, are rapidly producing vehicles to meet downstream demand, with New Stone's orders exceeding 20,000 units. We believe unmanned logistics vehicles are likely to become the first link in the rapid commercialization of intelligent driving L4, and recommend focusing on investment opportunities in express delivery companies, operating companies, and component companies.

Cost, technology, and demand resonance, unmanned logistics vehicles enter the commercialization inflection point

The commercialization of unmanned logistics vehicles is promoted by three aspects: cost, technology, and downstream demand for cost reduction. (1) Cost as a prerequisite: With upstream suppliers in the passenger car intelligent driving industry gradually achieving scale in the past two years, the rapid decline in costs of core components such as lidar, chips, and batteries has brought the manufacturing cost of unmanned logistics vehicles down to the mid-ten-thousand yuan level. (2) Technology as a foundation: Currently, with the rapid application of end-to-end large models in the intelligent driving field, many manufacturers have freed themselves from the limitations of high-precision maps, thus reducing the time and cost required for road data collection, allowing unmanned logistics vehicles to be delivered quickly and operate without fixed road restrictions, facilitating scheduling management and improving efficiency. (3) Downstream demand for cost reduction as a catalyst: Taking the express delivery industry as an example, the industry faces fierce price competition, and labor costs dominate last-mile transportation. Without breakthroughs in technology and operational models, it is difficult to achieve significant reductions in per-package costs.

Precise commercial model entry, significant cost reduction benefits for customers

From a commercial model perspective, after downstream companies purchase unmanned logistics vehicles, suppliers will first conduct road data collection and testing while simultaneously producing the unmanned vehicles. Once the vehicles are delivered, downstream companies can directly call the vehicles for operation through a software app, while suppliers are responsible for the backend control and operation and maintenance throughout the vehicle's lifecycle From the perspective of the profit model, the operating model of autonomous vehicle suppliers is either a complete vehicle buyout or a complete vehicle leasing model, followed by a software subscription service model to achieve continuous charging throughout the vehicle's lifecycle. Taking the Jiushi Intelligent Z5 as an example, the hardware price is 49,800 yuan (which is relatively cheaper than the price of a van) + software FSD subscription fee of 7,000 yuan/quarter (which is cheaper than labor costs). With express delivery companies beginning to promote the "headquarters to headquarters" model, the unmanned logistics vehicle industry is experiencing rapid growth in delivery volume driven by demand led by the express delivery industry.

Road rights and regulations have not yet been unified, and low-speed urban distribution is currently the core scenario

Road rights refer to the legal authority for autonomous vehicles to operate on the road, managed by the public security department in conjunction with multiple departments. There are significant policy differences across regions, with no national unified standard. Currently, companies like New Stoneware have obtained road rights in over 100 cities nationwide. However, due to the lack of a unified definition, the limitations on the expansion of unmanned logistics fleets are: (1) the vehicles produced need to continuously apply for and obtain testing licenses; (2) there are currently no unified regulatory standards in the industry, mainly focusing on small and medium-sized vehicles and low-speed operations within 40 km/h. Therefore, the scenarios being developed mainly involve low-speed delivery to terminals and have not yet significantly entered the fields of intercity or high-speed delivery. According to statistics from the Transportation Union Research Institute, there were a total of 14.59 million vehicles used for urban distribution scenarios nationwide in 2022, and unmanned logistics vehicles are just beginning, with a vast potential market for terminal replacement in the future.

Authors of this article: Song Tingting, Xie Chunsheng, He Pianpian, Zhang Shuo, Guo Chunlin, Zhang Yu, Tang Shihang, Source: Huatai RuiSi, Original title: "Huatai | Joint Interpretation: Unmanned Logistics Vehicles Entering a Commercialization Turning Point"

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