Apple iPhone Shipment Could Decline In 2025 As Tariff, Competition Play Spoil Sport: IDC

Benzinga
2025.05.29 18:49
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International Data Corporation (IDC) forecasts a 0.6% growth in global smartphone shipments to 1.24 billion in 2025, down from a previous estimate of 2.3%. Apple Inc. is expected to see a 1.9% decline in shipments due to competition and economic challenges. The U.S. market is projected to grow 1.9%, influenced by tariff uncertainties. Heavy discounts and the iPhone 17 launch may mitigate further declines. AAPL stock is currently down 0.55% at $199.12.

International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker expects global smartphone shipments to grow 0.6% year over year to 1.24 billion in 2025.

IDC cut the forecast from 2.3% growth in February due to high uncertainty, tariff volatility, and macroeconomic challenges leading to a slowdown in consumer spending.

Growth will remain in the low single digits throughout the forecast period, with a five-year (2024-2029) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.4% due to increasing smartphone penetration, lengthening refresh cycles, and cannibalization from used smartphones, as per IDC.

Also Read: Apple Plans iPhone Shift From China To India Amid Tariff Pressures, Geopolitical Risks: Report

Despite the increased tensions, the U.S. and China are driving the 0.6% growth this year, according to the report.

China is forecast to grow by 3% Y/Y, driven by government subsidies.

In contrast, Apple Inc AAPL is forecast to decline 1.9% in 2025 due to ongoing competition from Huawei, the overall economic slowdown, and the lack of subsidies for most of its models.

However, heavy discounts during the upcoming 618 shopping festival and the anticipated iPhone 17 launch with significant hardware upgrades are expected to boost demand and limit further decline, the report stated.

According to Anthony Scarsella of IDC, the U.S. Market is forecast to grow 1.9% in 2025, down from 3.3% in 2017, due to increased uncertainty and tariff-related price increases.

Recent signals from the U.S. administration regarding potential tariff hikes on smartphones manufactured outside the U.S. further complicate long-term strategic planning for OEMs, according to Nabila Popal of IDC. However, India and Vietnam will likely remain the key alternatives to China for smartphone production.

Still, additional tariffs of 20% to 30% on U.S.-bound smartphones could pose a serious downside risk to the current U.S. market outlook.

Price Action: AAPL stock is down 0.55% at $199.12 at last check Thursday.

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