Apple Eyes Worst Month Vs. S&P 500 Since 2018 — But History Says Buy The Dip Now

Apple Inc. AAPL is wrapping up a brutal May, lagging behind the broader market by 11.7% — its steepest monthly underperformance against the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY in seven years.

Through May 29, Apple shares are down 5.5% while SPY is up 6.2%. That marks Apple’s third consecutive monthly loss, driven by investor concerns over slowing iPhone demand in China and rising costs from shifting its supply chain under U.S. policy pressure.

But if history is any guide, this dip could be a golden buying opportunity.

There have only been eight times in the past two decades when Apple underperformed the S&P 500 by more than 10% in a month.

The forward returns in the table below represent Apple's relative outperformance or underperformance versus the S&P 500 over the next three, six and 12 months — meaning these aren't absolute returns, but how Apple did compared to the broader market. Positive values indicate Apple outperformed SPY; negative values indicate underperformance.

On average, Apple outperformed the S&P 500 by 6.1% over the three months following a steep relative monthly drop. That outperformance grows to 16.6% at the six-month mark and 33.5% over the next 12 months.

Notably, Apple continued to underperform the S&P 500 one year later in only one case — following the 18.6% monthly lag in January 2013. In every other instance, Apple outpaced the broader market by a wide margin over the next 12 months.

The data confirms that buying Apple after rare, sharp underperformances relative to the market has historically paid off over time.

Apple has only logged 23 instances of three consecutive monthly losses since late ’80s. The tech giant has historically delivered strong returns after such losing streaks.

On average, Apple gained 10.1% over the following three months, 15.1% over six months, and 25.4% over 12 months after these streaks.

Statistically, Apple’s three-month forward average gain of 10.1% following a three-month losing streak has been well above the stock’s 7.4% average return in any three-month period over the past 40 years.

Even more compelling, the win ratio — or percentage of times Apple finished with a positive return — was 70% for three months, 57% for six months, and 74% for 12 months.

This pattern suggests that sharp short-term weakness in Apple has often created attractive entry points for long-term investors. While not every rebound was immediate or guaranteed, the odds have historically favored those who bought the dip.

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