The number of initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly rose last week, showing signs of a slowdown in the labor market
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly rose to 240,000 last week, exceeding the expected 230,000, indicating signs of a slowdown in the labor market. The number of continuing jobless claims also increased to 1.919 million, reaching a new cycle high, which may lead to a rise in the unemployment rate. Economists point out that although the number of unemployment benefits claimed by high-income families has increased, this trend may not necessarily reflect a substantial change in the labor market. The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that there is a risk of weakening in the labor market in the coming months, with the outcome depending on the evolution of government policies such as trade policy
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending May 24 was 240,000, expected to be 230,000, with the previous value revised from 227,000 to 226,000. The number of continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 17 was 1.919 million, expected to be 1.894 million, with the previous value revised from 1.903 million to 1.893 million.
The data on continuing jobless claims is related to the survey week of the non-farm payroll report and has just reached a new cycle high, which may lead to an increase in the unemployment rate. The number of continuing jobless claims covers the period during which the government surveys households to calculate the unemployment rate for May. The unemployment rate in the U.S. for April was 4.2%.
This indicates that as the labor market environment continues to loosen, the unemployment rate in May may have risen. Although during and after the pandemic, companies tended to retain employees due to difficulties in hiring, the aggressive trade policies of the Trump administration have created economic uncertainty, leading to increased layoffs and making it difficult for companies to formulate long-term plans.
On Wednesday, a U.S. trade court ruled that most of Trump's tariffs would not take effect, indicating that the president overstepped his authority. Economists stated that while this ruling brings some relief, it adds another layer of uncertainty to the economic situation.
A previous report from the Bank of America Institute showed that the number of high-income households receiving unemployment benefits significantly increased year-on-year from February to April, and the number of mid- to low-income households applying in April also rose significantly year-on-year. Economists expect that due to the difficulty of adjusting for seasonal fluctuations, initial claims in June may exceed the range of 205,000 to 243,000 this year, but this trend is similar to recent years and may not reflect a substantial change in labor market conditions.
The minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting this morning indicated that although policymakers believe the labor market is generally balanced, "there is a risk of weakening in the labor market in the coming months," and pointed out that the employment outlook "has considerable uncertainty," with the outcome "largely dependent on the evolution of trade policies and other government policies."
