Latest Asset Management Survey: Selling the Dollar is the "Consensus," U.S. Stocks Become the "Least Popular Stock Market," Increase Holdings in European and Japanese Stocks

Global leading asset management institutions have collectively formed a consensus of "selling America," reducing their positions in U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and the U.S. dollar.

According to news from the Chase Wind Trading Desk, on May 28, Citigroup released a significant report studying the movements of the 15 largest asset management institutions globally. These institutions manage a total of over $20 trillion in assets, serving as a barometer for global capital flows.

Capital flow data shows that large global funds are collectively "de-Americanizing," reducing allocations to U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, "buying Asia and Europe" is becoming a consensus among global large funds.

Institutions collectively "sell America"

1. Stock Market: U.S. Stocks Become the Least Popular Market Globally

Opinions on U.S. stocks among institutions are divided, but overall allocations have dropped to neutral levels, making it the least popular stock market globally, continuously reduced since the beginning of the year. In contrast, European and Japanese stock markets have been upgraded and are now seen as consensus bullish, while emerging market stocks remain in an overweight position.

2. Bond Market: Dislike for U.S. and Japanese Bonds, Preference for Europe

Institutions generally reduced their holdings in U.S. and Japanese bonds, shifting towards increasing positions in UK, German, and Italian government bonds, as well as local bonds in emerging markets. In terms of corporate bonds, European credit bonds are more favored and have stronger consensus, while there is significant divergence in U.S. credit bonds. However, U.S. real interest rate assets (such as inflation-protected securities) have suddenly gained attention.

Citigroup analysts pointed out that overall, despite divergences in the bond market, the direction of "shorting U.S. and Japanese bonds" is gradually becoming unified.

3. Foreign Exchange: Shorting the Dollar, Going Long on Euro and Yen

In the foreign exchange market, the act of selling America is more evident, with the dollar continuing to be reduced, while the euro and yen are being increased. Although the Swiss franc has been upgraded, it remains in a short position overall. The key point is that there is almost no divergence in the market on these directions, forming a typical consensus trade.

4. Commodities: Gold and Other Precious Metals Strongest, Oil Downgraded

Precious metals (such as gold) have been upgraded, while oil and other cyclical commodities have been downgraded.

Overall, the strongest consensus bullish positions in the market currently include European and Japanese stocks, the euro, the yen, precious metals like gold, and U.S. real interest rate assets (TIPS). The clearest bearish consensus is on the dollar, Swiss franc, Japanese bonds, U.S. bonds, and commodities like crude oil.

Among these, there is significant divergence regarding U.S. stocks, while the divergence in U.S. and Japanese bonds remains, but the trend is towards reduction. The commodity and foreign exchange markets show the least divergence, with highly consistent directions.

Additionally, Citigroup has collected these institutions' asset allocation views for the next month to a quarter, analyzing the publicly released allocation views of these institutions, especially those that regularly score and create allocation tables. Due to different scoring standards among institutions, Citigroup has standardized them into its own scoring system (+3 represents strongly bullish, -3 represents strongly bearish) for horizontal comparison Since not all institutions cover all asset classes (for example, some do not involve commodities), Citigroup only counts assets for which clear opinions are provided. Even if there is information lag, it does not matter, as these large institutions themselves have a slow adjustment pace, and trend judgments remain effective.

From April Panic to May Rebound

In April, emerging market stocks rebounded strongly, especially in Latin America, against the backdrop of previous market tensions due to tariff policy expectations, followed by signs of a "reversal" in U.S. policy, which quickly eased risk sentiment. Bonds performed well as the market digested signals of slowing growth and increased demand for safe-haven assets. In contrast, credit bonds performed poorly, with spreads widening.

Cyclical commodities were generally under pressure, with energy and base metals being heavily sold off. Meanwhile, gold performed brilliantly as a safe-haven asset, becoming a "golden harbor" for funds. The U.S. dollar generally weakened, depreciating against most major currencies.

Entering May, as market sentiment further stabilized, asset prices generally recovered. Global stock markets rose broadly, with U.S. stocks leading the way. The credit bond market saw spreads begin to narrow, and yields turned positive, indicating a return of funds. Previously declining cyclical commodities also showed signs of rebound. The foreign exchange market's performance was "chaotic," with the U.S. dollar basically maintaining its early-month level and showing relatively stable trends.

Citigroup pointed out that as tariff risks and global recession expectations cooled, market sentiment improved significantly, becoming the main driver of the rebound in stock markets and risk assets. However, at the same time, the bond market showed divergent trends, as investors began to focus on fiscal deficit issues in various countries, especially the United States, which became a new variable affecting interest rate expectations