U.S. Stock Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together as U.S.-Europe Trade Tensions Ease, Star Tech Stocks Climb Pre-Market

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of May 27 (Tuesday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 1.26%, S&P 500 futures are up 1.41%, and Nasdaq futures are up 1.49%. Star tech stocks are generally rising before the market opens.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.90%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.82%, the French CAC40 index is up 0.20%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.40%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 0.31%, priced at $61.34 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 0.23%, priced at $63.97 per barrel.

Market News

The frenzy rebound in U.S. stocks pauses, with NVIDIA (NVDA.US) earnings report, Trump tariffs, and inflation indicators being the three major tests this Wednesday. The recent frenzy rebound in the U.S. stock market has paused due to heightened concerns over the fiscal deficit, which has driven Treasury yields to soar, while Trump has threatened to raise tariffs again. In the coming week, the progress of the trade war and Trump's pending tax legislation will remain in focus. The quarterly earnings report from NVIDIA, scheduled for after the market closes on Wednesday, is expected to be a market highlight. Earnings reports from Okta, ServiceNow, and Costco (COST.US) will also attract investor attention. In terms of economic data, the core PCE price index for April, a favored inflation indicator by the Federal Reserve, will be released on Friday.

Several U.S. Treasury auctions are set to take place this week, with demand strength potentially influencing the dollar's movement. It is reported that the U.S. is scheduled to auction $69 billion in two-year Treasury bonds on Tuesday, $70 billion in five-year Treasury bonds on Wednesday, and $44 billion in seven-year Treasury bonds on Thursday. Chris Weston, an analyst at the globally renowned forex trading platform Pepperstone, stated that after the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds recently reached its highest level since the end of 2023, investors will closely monitor the upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions, as the level of demand may impact Treasury bonds and the dollar's movement. In a report, Chris Weston noted that strong demand in this week's auctions could help alleviate market anxiety, leading to a decline in Treasury yields and a rise in the dollar. However, he also added that if demand is weak (especially from foreign buyers), it could reignite market concerns over U.S. debt issues, resulting in rising yields and a weakening dollar Not just tariffs! With U.S. Treasuries, Japanese bonds, and the summer curse overlapping, is the U.S. stock market doomed? Just when investors thought they could be free from tariff worries, Trump threatened last Friday to impose a new round of tariffs on the EU and Apple, bringing trade tensions back into focus. Although Trump subsequently announced a delay in the implementation of EU import tariffs until July 9, this serves as a reminder to stock market investors that tariff issues are likely to continue to be a factor affecting the market this summer. They need to tread carefully in a turbulent macroeconomic environment while also paying attention to the growth of U.S. government debt, the high long-term U.S. Treasury yields, and the surge in Japanese government bond yields, which may trigger further outflows from U.S. assets. Seasonal factors are also putting pressure on U.S. stocks. Data from the Dow Jones market shows that since 1950, summer has been the worst-performing season for the S&P 500 index, with an average increase of only 1.2%, far below spring's 2.4%, autumn's 2.2%, and winter's 3.1%.

Federal Reserve's Kashkari: Maintain stable interest rates until tariff impacts are clearer. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari emphasized on Tuesday that, given the uncertainty caused by the trade war and the "paramount" necessity of defending inflation expectations, caution is warranted. In his remarks, Kashkari noted, "Trade negotiations may take months or even years to fully resolve." He also mentioned that tariffs on intermediate goods take time to pass through to end consumers, and as time goes on, the risk of losing control over inflation expectations may increase. He stated, "For the reasons mentioned above, it is appropriate to keep the policy interest rate unchanged for now. Current rates may only be slightly restrictive. Decisions should be made once the direction of tariffs and their impact on prices become clearer. Given the importance of defending long-term inflation expectations, I find these reasons quite compelling." It is worth noting that Kashkari is not a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this year.

U.S.-EU trade negotiations weaken safe-haven demand, gold prices continue to decline. As of the time of writing, the spot price of gold fell by 1.53% to $3,290.81 per ounce; gold futures prices dropped by 2.27% to $3,317.46 per ounce. On the news front, the EU previously stated it would accelerate negotiations with the U.S. to avoid a transatlantic trade war. Following President Trump's earlier accusations of the EU delaying negotiations, both sides have shown a more conciliatory attitude. As signs of easing in U.S.-EU trade relations emerged, market risk aversion cooled, leading to a drop in gold prices. Data shows that since hitting a more than one-year high in mid-April, gold ETFs have seen net outflows for five consecutive weeks. However, the market remains in a wait-and-see mode, weighing multiple risk factors, including the expanding U.S. fiscal deficit, ongoing trade negotiations, and the worsening geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. Although gold prices have fallen about $165 from last month's record high, the cumulative increase for the year still exceeds 25%. Citigroup has revised its short-term gold price forecast to reach $3,500, emphasizing that under new trade and geopolitical risks, gold's safe-haven attributes remain prominent Goldman Sachs becomes the "big short" on oil: "Supply surplus" is unavoidable, and low oil prices will persist until 2026. Goldman Sachs released its latest research report stating that from 2025 to 2026, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil will be more depressed and persistently weak than the current relative low point of the year. Goldman Sachs indicated that in the next two years, oil production growth from major projects in non-OPEC countries, excluding Russia, may accelerate to 1 million barrels per day, further expanding the scale of the "supply surplus." Goldman Sachs also stated that the ongoing expansion of crude oil system supply surplus pressure will continue to exert strong selling downward pressure on Brent and WTI prices. The bank currently expects that the average price of Brent crude oil for the remainder of 2025 will be $60 per barrel, and the average price of WTI crude oil will be $56 per barrel, both of which have been revised down from previous expectations. The bank further lowered its oil price forecast for 2026, expecting the average price of Brent crude oil to drop significantly to $55 per barrel, and the average price of WTI crude oil to fall to only $51 per barrel (previous expectations were $58 and $55, respectively).

Individual Stock News

Trump Media Technology Group (DJT.US) reportedly plans to raise $3 billion to bet on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. According to media reports, Trump Media Technology Group plans to raise $3 billion, which will be directly used to purchase Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, operating similarly to the U.S. listed company Strategy (MSTR.US), which relies on financing to buy cryptocurrencies madly, turning itself into an "alternative crypto asset ETF." According to media disclosures, Trump Media Technology Group plans to include a $2 billion stock issuance and a $1 billion convertible bond issuance. In response to the report, Trump Media Technology Group issued a statement saying that the reporter is absurdly foolish, and the source of the information is even more foolish. However, the company did not directly deny the plan to raise funds to buy cryptocurrencies. As of the time of publication, Trump Media Technology Group's stock rose nearly 7% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

Sony (SONY.US) undergoes a strategic transformation: plans to spin off its financial business and accelerate its transformation into an entertainment technology giant. Sony (SONY.US) will announce its development strategy after the spin-off of its financial business this Thursday. This move, praised by investors as a "new chapter in corporate transformation," marks the Japanese giant's acceleration towards becoming an entertainment technology group. This Japanese conglomerate, once known for its home appliances, now derives over 60% of its revenue from its entertainment business, and its strategic transformation is widely recognized by the market. At Thursday's Investor Day event, Sony executives will detail the spin-off plan and the growth strategy for the financial unit. Sony stated that the spin-off will separate the capital-efficient non-financial business from the capital-dependent financial business, helping investors better understand the development goals of different businesses. Sony emphasized that compared to an IPO, this spin-off method can achieve large-scale business divestiture in a shorter time with lower risk.

HSBC (HSBC.US) accelerates the restructuring of its investment banking business, cutting dozens of analyst positions. According to insiders, HSBC Holdings, Europe's largest bank, recently laid off more than twenty analysts, marking the bank's acceleration of the restructuring process of its investment banking business. According to insiders, the layoffs are mainly concentrated in Europe. One insider stated that as part of a large-scale business adjustment, this London-based bank is integrating macro strategy research for various assets such as foreign exchange and fixed income U.S. stock market star technology stocks generally rise before the market opens, with semiconductor stocks leading the gains. As of the time of writing on Tuesday, AMD (AMD.US) rose over 3%, ASML (ASML.US), NVIDIA (NVDA.US), Micron Technology (MU.US), and Broadcom (AVGO.US) all rose over 2%. Oracle (ORCL.US), Intel (INTC.US), Qualcomm (QCOM.US), and Meta (META.US) rose nearly 2%, while Salesforce (CRM.US), Apple (AAPL.US), Alphabet (GOOGL.US), and Amazon (AMZN.US) rose over 1%.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

At 20:30 Beijing time, U.S. April durable goods orders month-on-month preliminary value

At 22:00 Beijing time, U.S. May Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

Earnings Forecast

Wednesday morning: Agora (API.US)

Wednesday pre-market: Kingsoft Cloud (KC.US), Macy's (M.US)