Tonight, the expectations for Xiaomi's financial report are very high
In the past six months, Xiaomi's stock price has soared nearly 90%, making it the best performer among the constituents of the Hang Seng TECH Index. The expected price-to-earnings ratio has surged to 28 times, becoming one of the most expensive stocks in the sector. Analysts point out that this level of valuation means that any performance below expectations could trigger a sharp stock price correction
Tonight, when Xiaomi announces its quarterly report, it will be difficult to surpass the expectations that investors have already set.
Over the past six months, Xiaomi's stock price has soared nearly 90%, achieving the best performance among the constituents of the Hang Seng TECH Index, with the expected price-to-earnings ratio rising to 28 times, making it one of the most expensive stocks in the sector.
According to reports, analysts expect Xiaomi's first-quarter sales to surge by 44%, primarily benefiting from the strong momentum in its electric vehicle business and the growth of artificial intelligence and Internet of Things-related products. However, such optimistic expectations also set a very high bar for the financial report's performance.
The report states that the current valuation level means that any performance below expectations could trigger a sharp stock price correction. The market's nervousness about Xiaomi's financial report has already been evident in options trading.
Options traders expect that the stock price will experience a 4.5% two-way fluctuation after the financial report is released, a figure significantly higher than the average 3% fluctuation in the past eight quarters following financial reports. JP Morgan analyst Gokul Hariharan and his team bluntly warned in a research report last week:
We maintain a neutral stance on Xiaomi, as the stock appears reasonably valued, and all positive catalysts have been fully reflected in the stock price. We are waiting for further strong growth signals in the electric vehicle business or a better entry point.
The report points out that Xiaomi's stock price performance has become a heavy burden. When the market has digested all the good news, only two possibilities remain: either deliver stunning results far exceeding expectations or face a brutal valuation correction.
For the financial report to be announced tonight, Xiaomi needs to prove that its growth momentum in the electric vehicle and AI Internet of Things businesses is sufficient to support the current valuation. Otherwise, the recent rebound may come to an abrupt halt
