The bullish camp on Wall Street for gold is showing signs of divergence! Citigroup is bullish on gold prices for a short-term surge to $3,500, while maintaining a bearish long-term stance

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Citigroup, one of Wall Street's financial giants, has raised its short-term forecast for gold prices to $3,500 per ounce. The core logic of this institution is that the escalating tariff policies of the Trump administration and increasing geopolitical risks are driving the strength of such safe-haven assets. However, Citigroup's latest view also indicates a significant divergence in Wall Street's bullish camp on gold prices. Unlike Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, which are optimistic about gold entering a "long-term bull market" by 2026, Citigroup believes the long-term outlook for gold prices is not optimistic and expects a significant correction in 2026-2027.

In a research report released on Sunday, Citigroup's commodity analyst team currently expects gold prices to hover between $3,100 and $3,500 per ounce over the next three months—higher than the $3,000 to $3,300 range given by the institution on May 12.

This upward revision of gold price expectations follows last Friday's global investor concerns about the escalation of the trade war: President Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, although he later retracted that threat. On May 25, Trump stated that after a phone call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, he agreed to delay the start date for the 50% tariff on the EU from June 1 to July 9.

Despite revising its bullish expectations, Citigroup's analyst team remains cautious about the longer-term trend of gold prices, pointing out two potential resistances: first, the upcoming U.S. midterm elections and the upgraded expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts may lead to a reduction in the risks of U.S. economic growth and global stock market downturns; second, there is actual statistical data showing that the scale of gold held by global households has reached its highest level in 50 years.

Citigroup, which has been bullish on gold since 2023, first raised its short-term gold target price to $3,500 in April 2025, driven by significant concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, which pushed gold prices (spot and futures) to briefly surpass this level on April 22. As global trade tensions subsequently eased, especially after positive trade consensus was reached between China and the U.S. and tariffs were significantly reduced, gold prices fell sharply. Citigroup then adjusted its short-term gold price benchmark forecast down to the $3,000 to $3,300 range, and gold prices reached the midpoint of that range on May 15, entering a consolidation phase.

The current spot trading price of gold is close to $3,347 per ounce, down 0.4% on Monday, after Brussels indicated it would accelerate negotiations with Washington to avoid a transatlantic trade war. After President Trump initially criticized the EU for delaying negotiations, both sides softened their positions. In the U.S. stock market, institutions estimate that since reaching a peak not seen in over a year in mid-April, gold-backed ETFs have seen continuous outflows for five weeks.

Looking ahead, Citigroup expects gold prices to stabilize around current levels and likely experience significant fluctuations within the range of $3,100 to $3,500 in the second half of 2025, providing opportunities for tactical volatility positioning rather than directional bullish bets. Citigroup is bearish on the long-term outlook for gold, anticipating a significant correction trend in 2026-2027. In contrast, Goldman Sachs expects gold prices to potentially surge towards the $4,000 mark in 2026, while Deutsche Bank forecasts a breakthrough of $3,700 next year.

Additionally, Citigroup's research report indicates that global potential demand for gold remains at historically high levels—currently, about 0.5% of global GDP is used for gold purchases, marking the highest ratio in half a century. This ratio even surpasses the gold rush during the second oil crisis in 1980, suggesting that the gold investment frenzy has reached a cyclical peak, and there will be substantial profit-taking pressure on gold going forward.

Citigroup's research also found that the share of gold jewelry and gold bars and coins in global household net wealth has risen to a historic high of 3%, the highest level in fifty years, doubling compared to the past five years, which similarly indicates that a price reversal is imminent. Citigroup stated that the increasingly high level of uncertainty continues to drive funds into gold bars and coins, and in key markets like India and China, even as gold prices hit record highs, demand for gold jewelry remains resilient, all of which provide support for gold prices this year.

However, when market participants are "extremely long" on a particular asset class, it often signals that a price reversal is near. Citigroup believes that this extremely high level of positioning could become an important catalyst for a decline in gold prices, especially as ultra-high-net-worth individuals and other relatively affluent households already hold significant amounts of gold, which may reduce their future purchasing volume and increase the likelihood of selling at high prices