Federal Reserve officials: The pause in easing may last longer, and it is "uncertain" whether the situation is clear enough
Federal Reserve official Neel Kashkari stated that Trump's policies have led to uncertainty, which may delay interest rate cuts until after September. He is concerned about the current situation, believing that economic activity is affected and the direction of monetary policy is unclear. Trump has threatened to impose high tariffs on EU goods, which could raise inflation and hinder economic growth. Kashkari emphasized that the threshold for interest rate cuts remains high, and changes in tariffs and immigration policies are the main risks facing the U.S. economy
Trump's policies are creating significant uncertainty, potentially delaying the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule until after September—and this is just the beginning.
On Monday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressed his concerns about the current situation in an interview. "Anything is possible," he stated:
"But will the situation be clear enough by September? I'm not sure right now. We have to see what the data says, and also how the negotiations progress."
The remarks from this Federal Reserve official reflect the dilemma faced by the central bank's decision-makers: on one hand, the U.S. economy shows a solid foundation heading into early 2025; on the other hand, the tariff threats and significant adjustments in immigration policy from the Trump administration are prompting businesses to rethink their investment plans:
"This uncertainty may be dragging down economic activity and creating challenges for us, as we are unsure how things will develop, and therefore do not know where monetary policy should head."
Frequent Tariff Threats and Policy Fog Surrounding Central Bank Decisions
According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Trump threatened on the 23rd to impose a 50% tariff on goods imported from the European Union starting June 1, far exceeding the 20% so-called "reciprocal tariff" previously announced by the U.S. for the EU. He then postponed the implementation date to July 9. Meanwhile, he also warned of a potential 25% tariff on devices manufactured outside the U.S., such as those from Apple.
These broad tariff measures are widely believed to raise inflation levels in the U.S., while also dragging down economic growth due to reduced business investment and tightened household spending. Kashkari and other central bank officials, including Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, have stated that the threshold for a rate cut in the near term remains very high.
Kashkari emphasized that the current uncertainty is dragging down economic activity. More concerningly, he explicitly pointed out the "stagflationary nature" of the tariff impacts.
He stated that the biggest risk facing the U.S. economy is the shadow of significant new policies, including trade barriers and immigration policies:
"I hope the ongoing negotiations can progress faster than expected to provide clarity."
In the past week, several Federal Reserve policymakers have signaled that their wait-and-see attitude regarding potential interest rate adjustments may last for months, as they seek clarity on tariff policies and their impact on the U.S. economy.
However, if the trade agreements that Kashkari hopes for can be reached in the coming months, "this should provide us with the clarity we are seeking."
But until then, markets and investors may have to continue navigating through the fog of policy uncertainty.
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