Trump wants to impose a 25% tariff on non-US iPhones, analysts remain calm: the impact on Apple's profit growth is minimal

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, U.S. President Trump stated last Friday that he would impose at least a 25% tariff on iPhones not manufactured in the U.S., causing Apple (AAPL.US) stock to drop by 3%. However, Wall Street analysts believe that the incremental impact of Trump's tariff threat on Apple's profits is relatively small.

UBS maintains a "Neutral" rating on Apple, with a target price of $210.

UBS stated that considering the current tariff context, the incremental impact of Trump's threat to impose a 25% tariff on non-U.S. manufactured iPhones is relatively minor. On the other hand, this threat increases market uncertainty, which may put pressure on Apple's valuation.

Taking into account the announced smartphone tariff exemptions, UBS previously estimated that a 20% tariff on smartphones assembled in China and a 10% tariff on smartphones assembled in India could negatively impact Apple's earnings per share by approximately $0.34, or a 5% adverse effect on the estimated earnings per share of $7.49 for the fiscal year 2026.

If a comprehensive 25% tariff were imposed on the 70 million iPhones imported annually from China and India, UBS estimated that the adverse impact on Apple's earnings per share could be $0.51, slightly worse than the previous estimate of $0.34.

Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on Apple, with a target price of $253.

Goldman Sachs stated that the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Apple's main assembly countries (excluding current tariff exemptions) have exceeded 25%, thus Trump's recent tariff threat aligns with current trade policies, including a 34% tariff on Chinese goods (effective from May 14, with a 90-day exemption period until August 12), a 26% tariff on Indian goods (exemption period until July 9), and a 46% tariff on Vietnamese goods (exemption period until July 9).

Goldman Sachs noted that Trump's recent tariff threat may indicate a lower likelihood of smartphone tariff exemptions compared to investor expectations.

However, Goldman Sachs still maintains a "Buy" rating on Apple, believing that market concerns about slowing product revenue growth overshadow the strong advantages of the Apple ecosystem and the durability and visibility of related revenues. The growth in Apple's user installations, long-term growth in services, and new product innovations will be sufficient to offset cyclical adverse factors in product revenue, such as reduced iPhone sales due to extended replacement cycles. Compared to Apple's historical price-to-earnings ratio and relative to major tech peers, Apple's current valuation is very attractive