Zhejiang Securities: Trump signs "Nuclear Power Renaissance Order," natural uranium will significantly benefit from the expected growth in long-term nuclear power demand

According to the Zheshang Securities research report, on May 23, U.S. President Trump signed four executive orders to promote reforms in the U.S. nuclear energy industry, including expanding the scale of U.S. nuclear energy, enhancing the nuclear energy industry chain, and shortening the approval cycle for nuclear power projects; this move may signal the revival of U.S. nuclear power. Influenced by the policy, U.S. nuclear energy stocks generally surged last Friday. Trump's new policy will further strengthen the global narrative blueprint for nuclear power development, driving an increase in industrial capital expenditure intensity. As a nuclear fuel, natural uranium will significantly benefit from the expected growth in long-term nuclear power demand, and the tight supply-demand situation for natural uranium may further strengthen, making a long-term bull market for natural uranium likely.

Key Points from Zheshang Securities:

Key Points of Trump's Nuclear Energy Revival Orders

Accelerate approvals, expedite deployment, and expand the industry chain. The four executive orders signed by Trump cover multiple aspects of revitalizing the U.S. nuclear industry, with important content mainly including:

(1) Deploy advanced nuclear reactor technologies: including third-generation reactors and small modular reactor technologies, to ensure energy for military and national security facilities as well as advanced computing infrastructures like AI; (2) Reform the NRC: promote the development of third-generation/fourth-generation reactors and small modular reactor technologies; reaffirm the goal of increasing U.S. nuclear power installed capacity from the current 100GW to 400GW by 2050; the NRC should publish final rules within 18 months, and the approval for new reactor applications should not exceed 18 months; (3) Have 10 new large units under construction by 2030.

Reinforcing the Narrative of Nuclear Power Development, A Bright Future Ahead

Since China resumed approval of nuclear power units in 2019 and major countries globally expressed support for the restart of nuclear power in 2021, this round of nuclear power recovery cycle has continued for several years. Developing countries, represented by China, continue to promote the approval, construction, and grid connection of new units, and the trend of nuclear power development has become very clear.

The "Nuclear Power Revival Order" aims to reshape the U.S. nuclear industry and enhance the scale of nuclear power supply. Considering that the U.S. has lacked experience in constructing large nuclear power units for a long time, the actual implementation of the goals proposed in the executive orders, such as starting the construction of 10 large units by 2030 and expanding nuclear power capacity to 400GW by 2050, still needs cautious observation. However, the trend of increasing enthusiasm for nuclear power development and industrial capital investment intensity in the U.S. will become more certain.

This nuclear power revival order clearly accelerates the approval pace for SMRs, directly benefiting the implementation of SMRs, with companies like OKLO and Nuscale Power significantly benefiting. The electricity demand from SMRs and AI data centers aligns well, which may further enhance their investment appeal.

Reaffirming the Long-term Bull Market Trend for Natural Uranium, Emphasizing Bottom Layout Opportunities

As the direct fuel source for existing nuclear power technologies, the demand for natural uranium will grow alongside the expansion of U.S. nuclear energy scale and the promotion of SMR applications. Although the supply dilemma shaped by a decade of nuclear power stagnation following the Fukushima nuclear accident has eased in recent years, the long-term supply-demand contradiction remains unresolved. Zheshang Securities believes that as the certainty of long-term demand growth for natural uranium further strengthens and the increase in long-term supply capacity is insufficient, the supply-demand contradiction will become increasingly prominent over time, thereby driving the continuous rise in natural uranium prices, with a clear long-term bull market trend Since May, the uncertainty surrounding the natural uranium market has gradually dissipated, with spot prices gradually recovering to USD 71 per pound. The outlook remains optimistic: the short-term price slump caused by trade sentiment will eventually be accompanied by a return to rational sentiment, gradually recovering to levels near long-term contract prices. The overall trend of global nuclear power recovery has not changed, and the tightening supply-demand pattern in the natural uranium market has not eased. Spot uranium prices are still in the upward recovery range from the bottom, and it is the right time to see the light. Key recommendations to pay attention to: China General Nuclear Power Corporation (01164).

Risk Warning

Global nuclear power development may fall short of expectations, natural uranium supply may be released beyond expectations, and nuclear safety incidents may hinder industry development