CITIC Securities: Trump's next policy changes make gold the most certain investment, while the winning rate for US stocks is relatively low

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, CITIC Securities released a research report stating that the recent tariff policies of the Trump administration have fluctuated and generally shifted towards moderation. CITIC Securities believes that this shift is unstable and may only be a temporary appeasement measure under market pressure. Subsequent tariff frictions may continue, potentially leading to a situation of "loud thunder, little rain" by the end of this year or early next year. The tax reduction bill is also a core demand of Trump; if it is successfully implemented, it will benefit short-term economic performance and bring certainty earlier, but it is necessary to observe Trump's policy direction choices. In terms of major asset classes, gold remains the most certain, U.S. Treasuries may still experience range-bound fluctuations, U.S. stocks have a low probability of winning, and the U.S. dollar may fluctuate weakly. If Trump focuses on domestic issues, the turning point for U.S. stocks and the dollar may arrive earlier.

The following is a summary of the research report:

Recently, the tariff policies of the Trump administration have fluctuated and generally shifted towards moderation. We believe that this shift is unstable and may only be a temporary appeasement measure under market pressure. Subsequent tariff frictions may continue, potentially leading to a situation of "loud thunder, little rain" by the end of this year or early next year. The tax reduction bill is also a core demand of Trump; if it is successfully implemented, it will benefit short-term economic performance and bring certainty earlier, but it is necessary to observe Trump's policy direction choices. In terms of major asset classes, gold remains the most certain, U.S. Treasuries may still experience range-bound fluctuations, U.S. stocks have a low probability of winning, and the U.S. dollar may fluctuate weakly. If Trump focuses on domestic issues, the turning point for U.S. stocks and the dollar may arrive earlier.

Recently, there has been a clear inconsistency in the trade policies of the Trump administration.

Although the "reciprocal tariff policy" was introduced, the overall attitude of the Trump administration subsequently softened, with continuous fluctuations during this period. From the power shift within Trump's cabinet, it can be seen that since April, the dominant trade policy has shifted from the MAGA faction represented by Navarro and Milan to the moderates represented by Bessent.

We believe that this shift is unstable, and Trump's trade policies may still fluctuate; it is too early to expect certainty in trade policy direction.

Trump's own policy stance is close to that of the MAGA faction and is driven by multiple objectives. Recently, handing over the leadership of foreign trade policy to the moderate Bessent is more of a temporary response to market pressure. The core demand of Trump and the MAGA faction for trade protectionist policies is difficult to change; it will only temporarily shift towards moderation when facing pressures such as stock, bond, and currency issues. The concessions made by the U.S. side in this round of China-U.S. negotiations may make it more difficult for the U.S. to negotiate trade with other economies in the future.

We believe that by the end of this year or early next year, Trump's trade policy may shift to "loud thunder, little rain."

The pressures of the U.S. economy and the midterm elections may only become apparent by the end of this year or early next year.

The tax reduction bill is the true core of Trump's policy stance and is beneficial for short-term economic performance.

Currently, "a big and beautiful bill" is under review in both houses, and the Trump administration hopes to significantly reduce taxes while slightly postponing spending cuts. According to estimates from the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, this bill is expected to add more than $3.3 trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years. If the bill passes, it will provide additional support for short-term U.S. economic performance.

A comprehensive understanding of Trump's actions in domestic and foreign affairs: the effective reform direction in the future may be a choice between imposing tariffs externally and reducing taxes and increasing deficits internally, with the distinction being whether uncertainty is concentrated internally or externally in the U.S. Political reforms under real pressure usually have to choose between domestic and foreign affairs, with the other direction being more conservative. If Trump shifts from radical tariff policies to implementing tax reduction bills, the feasibility is higher, which would also allow the U.S. market to return to a more certain environment earlier.

In terms of major asset allocation, the uncertainty of Trump's policies remains the main line of major asset allocation, and future attention needs to be paid to the possibility of easing foreign trade policies or shifting focus to domestic issues. Currently, in the model where Trump influences the market, the "Trump put option" is still in effect.

From the end of this year to early next year, U.S. Treasury bonds may experience a fluctuation range of 4% to 5%; gold remains the most certain asset; the probability of U.S. stocks under Trump's influence is still relatively low; the U.S. dollar may show weak fluctuations. However, if Trump's policy focus shifts to internal matters, the turning point for U.S. stocks and Treasury bonds may arrive earlier.

Risk factors:

U.S. government policies exceeding expectations; U.S. economic growth falling short of expectations; Federal Reserve easing not meeting expectations; U.S. inflation exceeding expectations; geopolitical risks