U.S. Stock Outlook | Three major stock index futures all decline, U.S. banking giants join forces to explore stablecoin issuance, U.S. stock market closed next Monday

1. As of May 23 (Friday) before the US stock market opened, the three major US stock index futures all fell. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were down 0.23%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.23%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.30%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index was down 0.06%, the UK FTSE 100 index was down 0.04%, the French CAC40 index was down 0.63%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was up 0.43%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was up 0.07%, at $61.24 per barrel. Brent crude oil was up 0.12%, at $64.52 per barrel.

Market News

Trading Reminder: The US stock market will be closed for one day next Monday due to Memorial Day. May 26 (Monday) is Memorial Day in the United States, and the US stock market will be closed for one day, resuming normal trading on May 27 (Tuesday). Trading of Brent crude oil contracts under the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on the 27th. Trading of precious metals, US crude oil, and foreign exchange contracts under the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will end early at 02:30 Beijing time on the 27th, and trading of stock index futures contracts will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 27th.

US banking giants join forces to explore stablecoin issuance. According to reports, a banking alliance composed of Wall Street giants such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo is exploring the feasibility of jointly issuing stablecoins through Early Warning Services, the operator of Zelle, and the payment system Clearing House. This move is seen as a signal of deep integration between traditional finance and the cryptocurrency sector, but its final implementation still depends on the progress of US legislation and market demand verification. Meanwhile, the Senate is advancing the "2025 US Stablecoin Guidance and National Innovation Act" (GENIUS Act) this week, which aims to regulate stablecoin issuance through strict reserve management, risk control, and privacy protection standards, establishing the first comprehensive regulatory framework for the sector. Stablecoins have attracted attention for their potential to enhance cross-border payment efficiency, but concerns about their security and the challenges faced by small and medium-sized banks in forming similar alliances remain to be observed.

US stock earnings warning signals! More than half of American companies expect tariffs to consume at least a quarter of their revenue. A business survey shows that American companies are extremely worried about the negative impact of the constantly changing tariff policies led by President Donald Trump on their revenues. A recent survey conducted by HSBC Holdings Plc shows that more than half of the surveyed American companies expect tariff policies to reduce their overall revenue by at least 25% In a commercial trade survey released by HSBC on Friday, about a quarter of the U.S. companies surveyed indicated that their revenue would be cut by more than half over the next two years due to the impact of tariff policies on supply chains. In contrast, HSBC's survey showed that Chinese companies appeared more optimistic, with only about a quarter expecting revenue to decline by 25% or more due to the new round of tariff battles; however, more than half of the companies still anticipated a revenue drop of 10% to 25%.

"Policy bottom" has emerged! Morgan Stanley predicts a rebound for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year, with the S&P 500 targeting 6,500 next year. Morgan Stanley published a research report stating that although U.S. stocks face many challenges in the first half of 2025, they hold a more optimistic view for the second half and 2026, reaffirming their 12-month target for the S&P 500 index at 6,500 points. Morgan Stanley noted that at the beginning of the year, the market was expected to be challenging due to a "risk-averse" policy tone, and while tariff-related growth resistance exceeded expectations, the market price low may have already occurred, with the average decline of S&P 500 constituent stocks reaching 30% this year. Additionally, the overall tariff rate on Chinese goods has recently dropped significantly from 145% to 30%, greatly reducing the risk of economic recession, and the bank's economists expect seven rate cuts in 2026, providing support for above-average valuations.

Morgan Stanley: Forget the "Sell America" trade! U.S. stocks and bonds will dominate global markets next year. Following Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating last week, this week saw a lukewarm U.S. Treasury auction and concerns that the Trump administration's tax cuts would further widen the U.S. budget deficit, accelerating the "Sell America" trade. The S&P 500 index fell about 1% over the past two days, while the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged 10 basis points in just four days. Despite recent sell-offs of U.S. assets, a team of strategists at Morgan Stanley expects U.S. assets to rebound next year, outperforming global peers.

UBS raises S&P 500 year-end target to 6,000, with further increases expected next year. UBS Global Wealth Management on Thursday raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 5,800 to 6,000 points and set a target of 6,400 points for June 2026. The research institution also raised its earnings per share forecast for S&P 500 constituent stocks in 2025 from $250 to $260 and expects earnings per share of $280 in 2026, higher than the previous expectation of $275. David Lefkowitz, head of U.S. equities at UBS, stated that the changes were due to better-than-expected performance in the first quarter earnings season and a slight increase in GDP growth expectations for the second half.

After a week of soaring, suddenly plummeting! Long-term Japanese bond yields experience a rollercoaster. After a week of rapid ascent, the yields on Japan's 30-year and 40-year government bonds fell sharply by more than 10 basis points at the close on Friday. During the late trading session in Tokyo, the 30-year yield dropped to 3.055%, down 11.5 basis points in a single day, after reaching a historic high earlier in the week. The 40-year yield fell 13.5 basis points to 3.540%. The movements in Friday's late session were partly driven by the retreat of U.S. Treasury yields and the Bank of Japan's routine bond purchase operations Tadashi Matsukawa, the head of bond investments at PinHao Investment in Japan, pointed out that investors' position adjustments before the weekend have also intensified market volatility. Matsukawa added that it is still difficult to determine whether the fundamental trend driving up yields has changed, and the market remains concerned about next week's 40-year Treasury bond auction.

Individual Stock News

Ross Stores (ROST.US) Q1 earnings exceeded expectations, withdrawing full-year guidance due to tariffs. Discount retailer Ross Stores reported first-quarter revenue of $5 billion, better than market expectations; earnings per share were $1.47, also exceeding market expectations. According to a statement on Thursday, Ross Stores expects second-quarter tariff-related costs to reach up to $0.16 per share; the expected second-quarter earnings per share are between $1.40 and $1.55, lower than last year's $1.59 and below analysts' expectations of $1.65. Ross Stores CEO James Conroy stated during the earnings call on Thursday, "Too many unknown variables limit our forecast for the second half of the fiscal year." More than half of the chain's inventory comes from China.

MINISO (MNSO.US) Q1 revenue increased by 19% year-on-year to 4.43 billion yuan, with over $100 million in cash dividends distributed in April. In the first quarter, the group's total revenue reached 4.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%. The gross margin for the quarter was 44.2%, up 0.8 percentage points from the same period last year, recording the highest gross margin level for a first quarter in the past. In terms of profitability, the adjusted (Non-IFRS) EBITDA for the quarter was 1.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 23.4%, adjusted net profit of 590 million yuan, and an adjusted net profit margin of 13.3%, highlighting the scale effects of globalization and the effectiveness of refined operations.

Trump threatens to impose a 25% tariff on Apple (AAPL.US). U.S. President Trump stated on social media that he told Tim Cook of Apple (AAPL.O) a long time ago that he wanted iPhones sold in the U.S. to be made and produced in the U.S., not in India or anywhere else. If not, Apple must pay at least a 25% tariff to the U.S.

U.S. Steel Workers Union President raises opposition again, urging Trump to block Nippon Steel's acquisition of U.S. Steel (X.US). The president of the U.S. Steel Workers Union called on Donald Trump to block Nippon Steel's plan to acquire U.S. Steel, reiterating its opposition to the controversial merger proposal. Union President Mike McCall stated in a statement on Thursday, "Allowing U.S. Steel to be acquired by 'habitual trade cheater' Nippon Steel would be disastrous for U.S. steelworkers, national security, and the future of U.S. manufacturing." This statement comes as the U.S. Foreign Investment Committee is expected to submit relevant recommendations to Trump. In April of this year, Trump ordered a new round of review of the transaction.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 20:00: U.S. April building permits month-on-month revision (%).

Beijing time 22:00: U.S. April seasonally adjusted new home sales annual total (10,000 units).

Next day Beijing time 01:00: U.S. total number of active drilling rigs nationwide as of the week ending May 23 (units).

Beijing time 21:35: 2025 FOMC voting member, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, and Kansas Fed President Esther George participate in a fireside chat event hosted by the St. Louis Fed in Northwest Arkansas to discuss the economy and monetary policy.

Next day Beijing time 00:00: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook delivers a speech on "Financial Stability" at an online conference.

Next day Beijing time 01:00: U.S. President Trump signs an executive order.

Next day Beijing time 03:30: CFTC releases weekly positions report