U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Decline Together, Trump's Tax Reform Bill Passes in the House by a Narrow Margin

1. As of May 22 (Thursday) before the US stock market opened, the three major US stock index futures all fell. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were down 0.33%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.18%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.09%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index was down 0.96%, the UK FTSE 100 index was down 0.83%, the French CAC 40 index was down 1.08%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was down 1.10%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was down 1.72%, priced at $60.51 per barrel. Brent crude oil was down 1.76%, priced at $63.77 per barrel.

Market News

Trump's tax reform bill narrowly approved by the House, next step is the Senate. On Thursday morning local time, the tax bill signed by President Trump was narrowly passed in the House of Representatives (215 votes to 214, with one abstention), advancing a massive multi-trillion-dollar package that increases the US debt burden while avoiding tax increases at the end of the year. The bill will now be submitted to the Senate, where Republican groups are urging for extensive modifications. Lawmakers plan to approve a vote before August. This includes raising the US debt ceiling by $4 trillion, with the Treasury Department predicting that without raising the ceiling, the US could face default as early as August or September, increasing the urgency of the timeline.

JPMorgan CEO Dimon: There is a risk of stagflation in the US, supports the Fed's wait-and-see approach. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon does not rule out the possibility of the US economy falling into stagflation, as the country faces significant risks from geopolitical issues, deficits, and price pressures. "I don't think we are in the best shape," Dimon said in an interview at the Global China Summit held in Shanghai. He also added that it is correct for the Fed to be cautious before deciding on monetary policy. So far this year, Fed officials have kept interest rates unchanged. Fed officials have indicated that they believe the risks of rising inflation and unemployment are increasing.

Goldman Sachs: Investors are now more "emotional" compared to during the pandemic or financial crisis. Goldman Sachs executive Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani believes that political bias is distorting investors' perceptions of economic risks, especially during the Trump administration, leading some clients to let emotions override rational investment strategies. Trump injected a considerable amount of uncertainty into the economic outlook, but a senior investment executive at Goldman Sachs believes that considering investors' political biases, this has had a disproportionate impact on their confidence "Two Housing Enterprises" Return to US Stock Market? Trump Says He is Considering Listing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. US President Trump stated on Wednesday that he will make a decision regarding the listing of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae in the near future, and he is "seriously considering" this issue. Trump mentioned in a post on Truth Social that he will hold talks with US Treasury Secretary Scott Basset, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Federal Housing Finance Director William Pulte. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were created by the US Congress to expand the national housing loan market by purchasing housing loans from private lending institutions and repackaging them as mortgage-backed securities. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are for-profit companies with private shareholders.

JP Morgan: China's Economy is Fully Recovering, Seeing "Very Good Momentum." Rita Chan, co-senior officer of JP Morgan in China, stated that the company is seeing a broad recovery in China as global tariff systems drive portfolio shifts and encourage Chinese companies to expand overseas, with increasing interest from foreign investors seeking diversified investments. In an interview, Chan said, "The developments over the past 12 months have certainly been encouraging. We are seeing a broad recovery in liquidity on a large scale."

Individual Stock News

Analog Devices (ADI.US) Raises Q3 Revenue Forecast to $2.75 Billion, Strong Demand in Automotive/Industrial Sectors. Analog Devices, a leader in analog chips, has provided a Q3 outlook that exceeds expectations. The company predicts that Q3 revenue and profits will be above Wall Street expectations, betting on strong demand for its chips in the automotive and industrial sectors. The Wilmington, Massachusetts-based chip manufacturer expects Q3 revenue to be $2.75 billion, with a fluctuation of $100 million, higher than the expected $2.62 billion. The company also forecasts adjusted earnings per share of $1.92, with a fluctuation of $0.10, above Wall Street's expected $1.83 per share. For the second quarter ending April 30, the company reported a 22% revenue growth to $2.64 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $2.51 billion.

New AI Tools Become Growth Engine! Snowflake (SNOW.US) Q1 Performance Exceeds Expectations, Raises Full-Year Product Revenue Guidance. Snowflake announced its Q1 financial report for fiscal year 2026 ending April 30, 2025. The data shows that the company's Q1 revenue was $1 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, better than market expectations; Non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.26, also better than market expectations. Product revenue for the first fiscal quarter grew 26% year-over-year to $996.8 million, while the average analyst expectation was $966 million; remaining performance obligations (another key growth metric) were $6.7 billion, exceeding the average analyst expectation of approximately $6.57 billion.

Lexin (LX.US) Q1 2025 Performance Soars, Profit Hits Three-Year High, AI Drives Multi-Business Ecosystem Digital Development. Lexin released its unaudited financial performance for Q1 2025: revenue of 3.1 billion yuan; profit (Non-GAAP EBIT) of 580 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 104.7% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 25.3% In the context of macroeconomic uncertainty, the company has demonstrated strong operational resilience, with profits in the first quarter reaching the highest level in 13 quarters. The company adheres to a dual-driven strategy of risk and data, achieving initial results in refined operations.

Europa League failure causes stock price plunge! Manchester United (MANU.US) loses €100 million in Champions League funds, summer transfer plans may change. On Thursday, pre-market trading saw Manchester United's stock price decline after the team lost 0-1 to Tottenham Hotspur, extinguishing their last hope of winning a title this season. For investors, the loss of a trophy is less severe than the team's failure to qualify for next season's Champions League, which is expected to result in a loss of approximately $100 million in potential revenue for the club. This defeat will inevitably impact the summer transfer plans. Head coach Ruben Amorim is working on rebuilding the team, while Manchester United has been fighting relegation in recent seasons. Notably, Amorim has stated that he is willing to forgo all compensation if the club fires him due to the Europa League final loss. Financial data shows that the revenue of this listed club was $777.1 million last year, a decline compared to the previous two years.

Google (GOOGL.US) launches AI search ad testing, embedding promotional content in AI responses. Google announced that it will launch AI search ad testing for desktop users in the United States starting today. According to the official statement, this test is based on preliminary user research results—testers believe that ads in AI overviews "help quickly access the required services," significantly improving demand conversion efficiency. The scope of ad display will be phased: the first phase has already launched search and shopping ads on U.S. desktops; internationally, the English version of AI Overviews ads is planned to enter some overseas markets in the second half of the year. It is worth noting that this advertising is only open to clients using specific advertising products, including: the Performance Max smart marketing series with broad match, shopping ad series, and search ad series equipped with AI Max technology.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing time 20:30: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 17 (10,000).

Beijing time 21:45: U.S. May SPGI Manufacturing PMI preliminary value.

Beijing time 22:00: U.S. April existing home sales annualized total (10,000 units).

Beijing time 22:30: U.S. EIA natural gas inventory change for the week ending May 16 (billion cubic feet).

Beijing time 23:00: U.S. May Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Composite Index.

Next day Beijing time 01:00: U.S. May 22 10-year TIPS auction - total amount (billion USD).

Next day Beijing time 02:00: FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams delivers a keynote speech at a monetary policy implementation seminar.

Earnings Forecast

Friday morning: Ross Stores (ROST.US)

Friday pre-market: Miniso (MNSO.US)