The 20-year U.S. Treasury bond auction was disappointing, with the winning yield exceeding 5%. U.S. Treasuries and U.S. stocks plummeted during trading

Wallstreetcn
2025.05.21 19:31
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In Wednesday's auction of the U.S. 20-year Treasury bonds, although it was not as disastrous as the earlier auction of Japan's 20-year Treasury bonds this week, it was nearly one of the worst performances since the maturity was introduced five years ago. Following the auction results, U.S. stocks, Treasury bonds, and Bitcoin all fell

On Wednesday local time, the U.S. Treasury auctioned $16 billion in 20-year Treasury bonds. Although it was not as disastrous as the 20-year Japanese government bond auction earlier this week, the latest auction of U.S. 20-year Treasury bonds was one of the worst performances since the maturity was introduced five years ago.

The final winning yield for this auction was 5.047%, marking the second time the yield on 20-year U.S. Treasuries has surpassed the 5% threshold. This winning yield was 24 basis points higher than April's 4.810%. The winning yield was about 1.2 basis points higher than the pre-issue rate of 5.035%, setting the largest tail spread since December of last year.

The bid-to-cover ratio for this auction was 2.46, which was also poor, marking the lowest level since February, compared to 2.63 in April.

The market's main focus was on the internal data from the auction, which showed a slightly more relaxed situation:

The indirect bid ratio was 69.02%, although lower than last month's 70.7%, it was still above the recent average of 67.2%. Indirect bidders typically include foreign central banks and other institutions participating through primary dealers or brokers, serving as an indicator of overseas demand.

The direct bid ratio was 14.1%, up from last month's 12.3%. Direct bidders include hedge funds, pension funds, mutual funds, insurance companies, banks, government agencies, and individuals, serving as an indicator of domestic demand in the U.S.

As the "backstop" for all unsold supply, primary dealers received a share of 16.9% in this round, slightly lower than last month's 17.0%.

The dismal auction of 20-year U.S. Treasuries caused yields to soar to intraday highs. The yield on 20-year U.S. Treasuries briefly rose from 5.04% to 5.1051%, hitting a new daily high, with an overall increase of about 11 basis points during the day. The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries also broke the 5% threshold again, rising 10 basis points during the day to 5.07%.

U.S. stocks plunged sharply during the session, quickly falling to intraday lows. The S&P 500 index dropped 1% during the session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 660 points, with a decline of 1.5%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.7%.

Bitcoin, which just set a historical high on Wednesday, also experienced a sharp drop during the session, plummeting over $3,000 from $109,700 to $106,300 in a short period.

Currently, as concerns over U.S. debt and deficits escalate due to Trump's tax reform bill, traders are heavily betting that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will soar to 5%. Wall Street strategists, including those from Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, are raising their yield forecasts. CME's open interest data shows that there has been a large-scale options trading betting on the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbing to 5% in the coming weeks