U.S. Stock Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Decline Together, Dollar Shows Historic Bearish Signal

1. On May 21st (Wednesday) before the US stock market opened, the three major US stock index futures all fell. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were down 0.75%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.50%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.51%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index was down 0.10%, the UK FTSE 100 index was down 0.01%, the French CAC40 index was down 0.54%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was down 0.37%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was up 0.74%, priced at $62.49 per barrel. Brent crude oil was up 0.67%, priced at $65.82 per barrel.

Market News

Expectations for US dollar depreciation are rising! The options market is releasing the most pessimistic signals ever. A commonly used measure of investor sentiment shows that forex options traders are currently more pessimistic about the US dollar's performance over the next year than at any time in the past. According to reports, the Bloomberg Dollar Index one-year risk reversal indicator (a measure of the cost of buying and selling a currency in the options market) shows that the premium for put options compared to call options has reached negative 27 basis points—this negative reading indicates that traders have begun to pay a premium to hedge against the risk of US dollar depreciation over the next 12 months. This value is the lowest on record, surpassing even the levels briefly touched during the market's extreme volatility at the onset of the pandemic five years ago, according to Bloomberg data starting from 2011. As President Trump’s erratic tariff policies disrupt the market, investor sentiment towards the US dollar has continued to deteriorate over the past few months.

Morgan Stanley strategist: Buy US assets, but exclude the dollar. Following Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating last week, investor confidence in US assets has further weakened, and the "sell America" trade has once again become a focus. However, Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to implement a series of interest rate cuts in the future, which will support the bond market and boost corporate profits, leading the firm to upgrade its investment recommendations for US stocks and government bonds. As for the dollar, Morgan Stanley believes it will continue to weaken.

Federal Reserve officials warn that the impact of tariffs will become fully apparent, potentially leading to a new round of price increases. Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, warned on Tuesday that companies' "buffer strategies" against high tariffs are running out, and the US economy may face a new round of price increases in the near future. Bostic stated during a meeting hosted by the Atlanta Fed in Florida, "We have heard that the impact of many tariffs has not yet truly manifested in the data." "Many companies have previously responded to tariff shocks by importing in advance and building inventories." However, he pointed out, "We are now hearing from more and more companies that these strategies... are nearing their end." Meanwhile, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard also noted in his speech that tariff issues remain one of the key factors affecting the U.S. economic outlook in the short term, which could weaken overall economic activity and exacerbate labor market weakness.

Investors are "extremely complacent"! Analysts warn that the macro environment has changed, and U.S. stocks may soon face turbulence. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon issued a warning yesterday, stating that despite last month's tariff turmoil causing market fluctuations, the speed and magnitude of the market rebound indicate that investors have fallen into a state of "extreme complacency," a sentiment echoed by several market strategists. At JP Morgan's Investor Day event on Monday, Dimon pointed out, "The market fell 10% and then rose 10%, which I think shows an unusual sense of complacency." He is concerned that the market has lost vigilance against potential risks. BTIG Chief Market Technician Jonathan Krinsky noted in a report on Tuesday that the five-day moving average of the widely watched put/call ratio in the options market is nearing a five-year low, indicating that investors are increasingly favoring call options, expecting the market to continue rising.

U.S. stock outlook questioned! Goldman Sachs: Clients are seeking to withdraw from the U.S. market. Executives from Goldman Sachs Asset Management warned that the firm's clients are increasingly requesting to withdraw funds from the U.S. market. Matt Gibson, head of client solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, stated, "The U.S. is no longer seen as a safe and dominant market as it was six months ago." This executive pointed out that clients are increasingly asking whether the rally in the U.S. stock market has "come to an end" and whether they should turn their attention to European and Chinese stock markets. When asked if clients have taken actual steps to withdraw from the U.S. market, Matt Gibson said, "Everyone is considering this." However, he emphasized that no one he knows has completely exited their investments in the U.S. According to a fund manager survey, more than half of stock pickers believe that the U.S. stock market will be the worst-performing market among all major markets by 2025.

Individual Stock News

Not affected by tariff fluctuations, Lowe's (LOW.US) sales exceeded expectations. The latest quarterly same-store sales of U.S. home improvement retailer Lowe's exceeded expectations, as consumers maintained home spending despite weakened consumer confidence and economic turmoil. In the quarter ending May 2, same-store sales fell 1.7%, but the company still expects this key sales metric to remain flat or grow by up to 1% for the full year. The financial report showed that Lowe's revenue for the quarter was $20.93 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%, falling short of market expectations; earnings per share were $2.92, exceeding market expectations by $0.05.

ZTO Express (ZTO.US) achieved double-digit growth in parcel volume and net profit in the first quarter, with a 46% increase in the parcel business. ZTO Express completed a parcel volume of 8.5 billion pieces in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, with the quarterly parcel business volume growing by 46% year-on-year; Revenue of 10.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%; net profit of 2.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.9%; operating cash flow of 2.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%; the current share repurchase plan has been extended to June 30, 2026.

Baidu (BIDU.US) reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.717 billion yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 41.65%. Baidu released its Q1 2025 performance, achieving total revenue of 32.452 billion yuan (RMB, same below), a year-on-year increase of 2.98%; net profit of 7.818 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.71%; net profit attributable to Baidu of 7.717 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.65%; basic earnings per share for Class A and Class B ordinary shares of 2.73 yuan.

XPeng (XPEV.US) reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 660 million yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 51.5%. XPeng released its Q1 2025 performance, with total vehicle deliveries of 94,008 units, an increase of 330.8% from 21,821 units year-on-year; total revenue of 15.81 billion yuan (same unit below), a year-on-year increase of 141.5%, and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.8%; vehicle sales revenue of 14.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 159.2%, and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.1%; net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders of 660 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.5%, and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 50.1%; basic and diluted net loss per American depositary share was 0.70 yuan.

Weibo (WB.US) reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 107 million USD in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 116.36%. Weibo announced its Q1 2025 financial performance, with net revenue of 396.9 million USD, flat year-on-year, or an increase of 1% year-on-year based on fixed exchange rates; operating profit of 110 million USD, with an operating profit margin of 28%. Net profit attributable to Weibo shareholders was 107 million USD, a year-on-year increase of 116.36%. Diluted net income per share was 0.41 USD. The number of monthly active users in March 2025 was 591 million, with daily active users averaging 261 million.

Baozun E-commerce (BZUN.US) reported a net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders of 63.08 million yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year narrowing of 5.34%. Baozun E-commerce released its Q1 2025 performance, with total net revenue of 2.064 billion yuan (RMB, same below), a year-on-year increase of 4.27%; net loss attributable to the company's ordinary shareholders of 63.08 million yuan, a year-on-year narrowing of 5.34%; basic net loss per share of 0.36 yuan.

Target (TGT.US) reported first-quarter results that missed expectations, with sales forecasts lowered highlighting growth challenges. After a weaker-than-expected quarterly performance, Target has lowered its sales forecast, marking the latest sign of the large retailer's struggles to regain growth. The company now expects net sales to decline in the single digits this year, down from a previous growth forecast of about 1%. In the quarter ending May 3, comparable sales fell by 3.8% due to a slowdown in shopper traffic, exceeding analysts' expectations. Consumers are also spending less on each visit WeRide (WRD.US) Q1 loss narrows, announces $100 million stock repurchase plan. WeRide's Q1 revenue was 72.4 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; diluted loss per share was 0.46 yuan, compared to a loss of 3.95 yuan in the same period last year. WeRide's net loss for Q1 was 385.1 million yuan (53.1 million USD), compared to 468.1 million yuan in the same period of 2024; net loss per ADS was 1.38 yuan (0.18 USD), compared to a loss of 11.85 yuan in the same period of 2024. In Q1 2025, WeRide's fleet size has increased to over 1,200 vehicles, with a cumulative public operation time exceeding 2,000 days.

Manbang (YMM.US) Q1 2025 financial report: Strong operational data, multiple top institutions increase holdings. In Q1, Manbang achieved operating revenue of 2.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%. Under non-GAAP, Manbang recorded an operating profit of 1.32 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.39 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 171.5% and 84%, exceeding market expectations. In Q1, Manbang's operational and user data continued to show strong growth. The number of platform fulfillment orders reached 48.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%. The average monthly active users for shippers was 2.76 million, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%, further enhancing user stickiness and platform activity.

iQIYI (IQ.US) releases Q1 2025 financial report: Total revenue and profit both grow quarter-on-quarter, "long + short" layout shows results. In Q1, iQIYI's total revenue was 7.19 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9%. Among them, membership service revenue was 4.4 billion yuan, online advertising service revenue was 1.33 billion yuan, content distribution revenue was 630 million yuan, and other revenue was 830 million yuan. iQIYI's Non-GAAP operating profit was 460 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13%, with a Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 6%. In Q1, iQIYI's total revenue was 7.19 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9%. Membership service revenue was 4.4 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7%. Online advertising service revenue was 1.33 billion yuan. Content distribution revenue was 630 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 55%. During the same period, other revenue was 830 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24%.

Xinyec Technology (FINV.US) releases Q1 2025 financial report: Technology empowers steady growth, business shows sustained vitality. Driven by strategic innovation and diversification, Xinyec Technology maintained steady growth in both operational and financial indicators, with domestic and international businesses fully demonstrating development vitality. In Q1 2025, Xinyec Technology achieved revenue of 3.481 billion yuan (RMB, the same below) and a net profit of 738 million yuan. In terms of operational indicators, the transaction amount for the quarter reached 52.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%; the loan balance was 74.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%.

Tuya Smart (TUYA.US) Q1 revenue increased by 21% year-on-year, profits exceeded expectations. Tuya Smart's total revenue in Q1 was 74.7 million USD, a year-on-year increase of approximately 21.1%, exceeding expectations. The overall gross margin was 48.5%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year Net profit was $11 million (Q1 2024: -$3.5 million). Non-GAAP earnings per ADS were $0.03, exceeding expectations. There were approximately 2,000 IoT PaaS customers in Q1 2025 (Q1 2024: approximately 2,000). The total number of customers in Q1 2025 was approximately 2,800 (Q1 2024: 3,000). The large customer strategy enables the company to focus on serving strategic clients.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 22:30: U.S. EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending May 16 (10,000 barrels).

The next day at 00:00 Beijing time: 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin will attend an event titled "Federal Reserve Listening."

Earnings Forecast

Thursday morning: Snowflake (SNOW.US), Lexin (LX.US)

Wednesday pre-market: Analog Devices (ADI.US)