Gary Black Compares Uber's Shift To Driverless Cars With Netflix's 2007 Move From DVDs To Streaming, Says Tesla 'Faithful' Are Missing The Bigger Picture
Gary Black, managing partner at Future Fund LLC and a long-time Tesla bull, compares Uber's potential shift to driverless cars with Netflix's 2007 transition from DVDs to streaming. He argues that Uber's existing network of 24 million active riders gives it a competitive edge in the autonomous ride-hailing market. Despite his bullish stance on Tesla, Black criticizes some narratives, particularly Elon Musk's ambitious vehicle delivery targets, suggesting that competition in the driverless market may delay profitability for Tesla's ride-hailing services.
The Future Fund LLC managing partner, Gary Black and a long-term Tesla Inc. TSLA bull, is challenging conventional wisdom among Tesla investors regarding the future of autonomous ride-hailing and Uber Technologies Inc.‘s UBER position in the market.
What Happened: Black drew a compelling parallel between Uber’s potential shift to driverless vehicles and Netflix Inc.‘s strategic pivot in 2007.
In a post on X, Black wrote, “The best analogy to Uber is Netflix, which disrupted its own DVD delivery business in 2007 to embrace streaming – just as Uber will disrupt its own ride-hailing business to go driverless,” Black added. “Many Tesla faithful are missing this.”
Black has previously argued that ride-sharing companies like Uber and Lyft Inc. LYFT stand to benefit significantly from autonomous technology, claiming that driverless operations could reduce costs from $2 per mile to $1 per mile. He emphasized that Uber’s existing network of 24 million active riders gives it a substantial competitive advantage.
Why It Matters: Despite being a Tesla investor with a $310 price target on the stock, Black has become increasingly critical of certain Tesla narratives. He has challenged Tesla CEO Elon Musk‘s 20 million vehicle delivery target for 2030, with Wall Street consensus now closer to 3.9 million units.
Black warns that Tesla “can’t just create a network of 24M active riders” overnight and that competition among multiple players in the driverless ride-hailing market could mean Tesla “may not make money on ride-hailing for years.”
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