Investors are "extremely complacent"! Analysts warn that the macro environment has changed, and U.S. stocks may soon face turbulence

JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon issued a warning yesterday, stating that despite last month's tariff turmoil causing market fluctuations, the speed and magnitude of the market rebound indicate that investors have fallen into a state of "extreme complacency," a sentiment echoed by several market strategists.

During JP Morgan's Investor Day event on Monday, Dimon pointed out, "The market fell 10% and then rose 10%, which I think shows an unusual sense of complacency." He is concerned that the market has lost vigilance against potential risks.

This assessment is supported by technical analysts. According to a report by BTIG's Chief Market Technician Jonathan Krinsky on Tuesday, the five-day moving average of the widely watched put/call ratio in the options market is nearing a five-year low, indicating that investors are increasingly favoring call options, expecting the market to continue rising.

Krinsky wrote, "While the current market uptrend is strong, the narrow trading range and extreme put/call ratio suggest that the market is overly optimistic, even if only in the short term, we suspect that a correction will come soon."

Looking back at the market, on April 2 of this year, U.S. President Trump announced large-scale "reciprocal" tariffs on multiple trading partners, causing the stock market to plummet, with the S&P 500 index nearing bear market territory. However, as the tariff policies were delayed or eased, the market quickly rebounded. By April 8, the S&P 500 had fallen 19.1% from its February peak, but that day also marked a temporary bottom, after which the stock market surged, and as of last week, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 had returned to positive growth for the year.

However, just after the market closed last Friday, the rating agency Moody's stripped the last AAA sovereign credit rating from the U.S., raising concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation and leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, which also triggered a brief sell-off in the stock market.

Despite this, the S&P 500 rebounded again on Monday, achieving its sixth consecutive trading day of gains, closing just about 3% shy of the record 6,144.15 points set on February 19.

Nigel Green, CEO of British brokerage deVere Group, pointed out that investors are "deliberately ignoring" the unsettling signals coming from the bond market. In a commentary via email, he wrote, "The rapid rebound in 2023 and early 2024 has led many investors to habitually view downside risks as short-term noise, but the current macro conditions have fundamentally changed."

He further noted, "Supply chains remain chaotic, energy markets are volatile, and real wages in many developing countries are still shrinking."

Despite the market seemingly attempting to restore an upward trend, the S&P 500 turned down again near the close on Tuesday, with a decline of 0.8%, narrowing to a drop of 0.39% by the end of trading, ending a six-day streak of gains