In March, the central bank bought 64 tons of gold, and Goldman Sachs continues to be optimistic about the gold price reaching 3,700 by the end of the year

Despite the international gold price retreating nearly 10% from its historical high of $3,500 per ounce at the end of April, and once dropping to $3,186 per ounce, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about gold's outlook, maintaining target prices of $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026.

According to the Chase Wind trading platform, Goldman Sachs' latest research shows that global central bank demand for gold purchases remains strong, providing support for gold prices.

Based on data tracked by Goldman Sachs, it is expected that:

In March, gold demand from central banks and other institutions (excluding the U.S.) in the London over-the-counter market was 64 tons, far exceeding the monthly average of 17 tons before 2022;

So far this year, average monthly demand from central banks has reached 94 tons, surpassing Goldman Sachs' previous forecast of an average of 80 tons per month by mid-2026.

Among the central banks tracked by Goldman Sachs, China has once again become the largest identifiable buyer, with purchases reaching 30 tons in March.

Despite the delay in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a reduced risk of recession in the U.S. (the probability of recession over the next 12 months has decreased from 45% to 35%), Goldman Sachs still adheres to its gold price forecast for the following reasons:

The expected terminal policy rate of the Federal Reserve remains at 3.5%-3.75%, and the combined impact of the above factors on the gold price forecast for 2026 is only $15 per ounce;

It is expected that the private sector will moderately increase its gold holdings (approximately 20 tons in total), offsetting the slight bearishness from macroeconomic cycle improvements.

Goldman Sachs also pointed out that current speculative positions are at a low level, providing a good entry opportunity for investors. Currently, speculative positions on COMEX are at the 52nd percentile.

As of the time of writing, spot gold has slightly rebounded to $3,230 per ounce, up 0.9% for the day.