CICC International: Alibaba-W's fourth fiscal quarter shows mixed results, target price lowered to HKD 160.6
Jianyin International released a research report stating that Alibaba-W's performance in the fourth fiscal quarter of 2025 is mixed. Based on SOTP valuation, the target price for the group has been lowered by 5%, from HKD 169.1 to HKD 160.6. Despite the uneven performance, the firm still believes that Alibaba's investment is solid, including stable market share for Taotian Group (TTG) and structural growth in cloud business. Therefore, it maintains an "Outperform" rating. The report indicates that to reflect Alibaba's better CMR growth, the decline in cloud service revenue due to tariff impacts, increased investment in instant retail and takeaway businesses, and slightly lower cloud business profit margins, Jianyin International has adjusted the group's revenue forecasts for the fiscal years 2026-2027 down by 0.7% and 1.2%, respectively, and adjusted earnings forecasts down by 5.2% and 2.4%. At the same time, new forecasts for the fiscal year 2028 have been added. Looking ahead to the first fiscal quarter and the full year of 2026, the firm expects Alibaba's total revenue growth to be 6% and 7%, respectively, with adjusted EBITA growth of 3% and 7%, and adjusted earnings per share increasing by 6%
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Jianyin International released a research report stating that Alibaba-W (09988) had mixed results for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2025. Based on SOTP valuation, the target price for the group was lowered by 5%, from HKD 169.1 to HKD 160.6. Despite the uneven performance, the firm still believes that Alibaba's investment is solid, including a stable market share for Taotian Group (TTG) and structural growth in cloud business. Therefore, it maintains an "outperform the market" rating.
The report indicates that to reflect Alibaba's better CMR growth, the decline in cloud service revenue due to tariff impacts, increased investment in instant retail and takeaway businesses, and slightly lower cloud business profit margins, Jianyin International has adjusted the group's revenue forecasts for the fiscal years 2026-2027 down by 0.7% and 1.2%, respectively, and adjusted earnings forecasts down by 5.2% and 2.4%. At the same time, forecasts for the fiscal year 2028 have been added. Looking ahead to the first fiscal quarter and the full year of 2026, the firm expects Alibaba's total revenue growth to be 6% and 7%, respectively, with adjusted EBITA growth of 3% and 7%, and adjusted earnings per share increasing by 6%
